Spekulatius Posted March 2 Posted March 2 3 hours ago, adventurer said: If they re-install the Shah again, it will just be another cycle starting from anew. To my mind it shows that the people of Iran are not ready for a true liberation in the form of a completely new political system. Instead they are stuck between a monarchy and an islamic state. Both with a strong tendency towards authoritarianism. At some point the islamic forces will regain strength and the country will once more tumble into chaos. This part of the world is stuck in an authoritarian spiral. If the people don`t manage to find a completely new system but are instead stuck in past times this will never end. I don’t think many people from Iran want the Shah back. It‘s mostly a myth with some right wingers on X etc. that the Shah was so great and people in Iran want him back. The regime still has a lot of support in the population - my guess is is that at least 1/3 of the people are staunchly behind it, likely more. A lot of more educated people are against it as we have seen from the demonstration but having quite a bit popular support makes a regime change hard. I guess we will see.
Xerxes Posted March 2 Posted March 2 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: I don’t think many people from Iran want the Shah back. It‘s mostly a myth with some right wingers on X etc. that the Shah was so great and people in Iran want him back. The regime still has a lot of support in the population - my guess is is that at least 1/3 of the people are staunchly behind it, likely more. A lot of more educated people are against it as we have seen from the demonstration but having quite a bit popular support makes a regime change hard. I guess we will see. I agree on the first paragraph. The monarchy is unknown to most youngsters. That said it is not binary either. Not wanting the Islamic Republic doesn’t mean they must want the Shah, or vice versa. The struggle for democracy in Iran is one of the oldest in Western Asia going back to 1905. I think there are many in between possibilities. But that is for later on. One of the most interesting thing about the protest in January was that you had representation from large segment of society, including the conservative from cities like Isfahan. Being a conservative doesn’t mean that they are regime supporter. People can be conservative and be against regime, and people can be liberal (and even pro-Shah) and be against how foreigners are invading their homeland.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted March 2 Posted March 2 9 hours ago, Gregmal said: There’s NY and CA liberals in India? 'Liberals' in India are different, they want to ban abortions and legalize child marriage because their favorite minority wants it. The fascist Indian right is more 'liberal' in an ideological sense as in they want a uniform civil code for India.
ajlomb1011 Posted March 2 Posted March 2 2 hours ago, dealraker said: Cubs...you in on this? I wish more people got angry over stuff like this. What the hell kind of precedent does this set for the country. Such an awful look, makes me not even want to live here anymore.
SharperDingaan Posted March 2 Posted March 2 2 hours ago, dealraker said: Cubs...you in on this? Shuush ..... SD
dwy000 Posted March 2 Posted March 2 2 hours ago, dealraker said: Cubs...you in on this? It was John Baron.
SharperDingaan Posted March 2 Posted March 2 6 hours ago, adventurer said: If they re-install the Shah again, it will just be another cycle starting from anew. To my mind it shows that the people of Iran are not ready for a true liberation in the form of a completely new political system. Instead they are stuck between a monarchy and an islamic state. Both with a strong tendency towards authoritarianism. The US/Israel are just trying to temporarily fill the power vacuum with something other than the clerics, and obtain feet on the ground via an uprising. Of course, for it to work .... the son has to both remain alive, and deliver on the US/Israeli promises made. Assassination resolves a lot a problems. It would also not seem to be going as the US/Israelis hoped. Timelines have now slipped to 4 weeks from 2-3, Israel is now fighting on multiple fronts vs just Iran (ie: stretched), the SOH blockage is starting to bite, gas prices are now USD 3/gallon in many parts of the US, and more planes are being lost to friendly fire than the Iranians. Iranian skies buzzing with planes like flies on sh1te ... yet Iranian missiles are still flying ??? This is also sucking a lot of gas; there will be an impact on the API/EIA numbers this week. SD
AzCactus Posted March 2 Posted March 2 35 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: It would also not seem to be going as the US/Israelis hoped. Timelines have now slipped to 4 weeks from 2-3, Israel is now fighting on multiple fronts vs just Iran (ie: stretched), the SOH blockage is starting to bite, gas prices are now USD 3/gallon in many parts of the US, and more planes are being lost to friendly fire than the Iranians. Iranian skies buzzing with planes like flies on sh1te ... yet Iranian missiles are still flying ??? I think Trump said 4 weeks or less not 2-3. I also think we all know its only been 3 days. Also pretty sure Israel figured it was a distinct possibility that Hezbollah would join especially when they killed the Ayatollah.
NnnnotSoSmart Posted March 2 Posted March 2 The rest of the world supposedly "hates" the U.S, but they sure do love U.S. assets: https://www.apolloacademy.com/strong-net-foreign-buying-of-us-assets/
Blake Hampton Posted March 2 Posted March 2 I overall believe, deep in my bones, that Trump is bad for the long-term future of this nation. There are so many smart people who support this guy, some of whom I deeply love and respect, and it sort of baffles me. The liberal 'gotchas' don't really do it for me anymore. I'm starting to realize that he is the embodiment of something bigger than that. I've also found that most people don't care about politics nearly as much as I do. Nowadays, it seems to scare people to the point where they don't want to think about it anymore. And it's funny: I believe that the same time people so deeply want to look away is about the same time when they should be staring at it. It's kind of like with the stock market.
Sweet Posted March 2 Posted March 2 I’m not sure Trump will get regime change unless there are ground troops which seems unlikely.
73 Reds Posted March 2 Posted March 2 2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I overall believe, deep in my bones, that Trump is bad for the long-term future of this nation. There are so many smart people who support this guy, some of whom I deeply love and respect, and it sort of baffles me. The liberal 'gotchas' don't really do it for me anymore. I'm starting to realize that he is the embodiment of something bigger than that. I've also found that most people don't care about politics nearly as much as I do. Nowadays, it seems to scare people to the point where they don't want to think about it anymore. And it's funny: I believe that the same time people so deeply want to look away is about the same time when they should be staring at it. It's kind of like with the stock market. Blake, people can choose to live in the real world or in some alternate fantasy land where everything is done in accordance with your, or someone's idea of what people should care about. Comments like "Trump is bad for the long-term future of this nation" have entirely no meaning whatsoever and is in fact, something I'd expect all those people who "don't care about politics" to say. The reason most people avoid politics is that outside of voting, there is very little to be done unless you want to get actively involved with issues you care about or run for elected office. Most of what comprises "politics" is done at the very local level and doesn't get much publicity outside of those areas most affected. Nationally we have a system with built in limitations so what do you propose people who "don't care to think about it" do other than vote their conscience? And if you don't vote, you really have no right to complain - just look in the mirror and blame yourself.
Viking Posted March 2 Posted March 2 Markets are of the opinion that what is happening in Iran today is a big nothing burger. And that is because these events are typically over quickly - and we all continue merrily on our way. I am not so sure. Now a year ago I was completely wrong about tariffs (too pessimistic) - so I am going to keep a more open mind this time around. I thought the video attached below was interesting. The presenter has an interesting take on why 'regime change' just doesn't work in the middle east. Actually it's worse... it usually results in a worse outcome. What happens in Iran is going to have a major impact on Trump's future. If he gets it right, perhaps he salvages the mid-terms. If he gets it wrong, the midterms get worse (perhaps Dem's get both the house and the senate). Iran is not Iraq. And Iraq turned into a catastrophe. Importantly, the milk has been spilt. So there is no point in debating "if it should have happened" or "why it happened". What I am very interest in knowing is where does it all go from here. Is it really a big nothing burger? Or does it get worse before it gets better.
John Hjorth Posted March 2 Posted March 2 On 3/1/2026 at 7:30 PM, Xerxes said: subtly: clerical rule refers to the regime itself. clerical establishment refers to one of the power centers. Other being IRGC, the merchant etc. Clerical establishment was there before 1979. Khamenei role was to balance the needs of different stakeholders and build consensus. Stubborn man he was but he knew how to rule through division. Thank you for the elaboration, @Xerxes, What a friggin' crazy place it is. -May all Iranian women cross their legs for their hubbies for a month - at least! LOLz! The mere concept of a rogue state.
rogermunibond Posted March 2 Posted March 2 @Viking i think you have to look market by market. the US market which is mostly oil-independent not so bad. European or Asian markets due to LNG/oil import - worse 2-3% selloffs with Germany and Japan especially hard hit. Govt bonds across the board sold off.
73 Reds Posted March 2 Posted March 2 14 minutes ago, Viking said: Markets are of the opinion that what is happening in Iran today is a big nothing burger. And that is because these events are typically over quickly - and we all continue merrily on our way. I am not so sure. Now a year ago I was completely wrong about tariffs (too pessimistic) - so I am going to keep a more open mind this time around. I thought the video attached below was interesting. The presenter has an interesting take on why 'regime change' just doesn't work in the middle east. Actually it's worse... it usually results in a worse outcome. What happens in Iran is going to have a major impact on Trump's future. If he gets it right, perhaps he salvages the mid-terms. If he gets it wrong, the midterms get worse (perhaps Dem's get both the house and the senate). Iran is not Iraq. And Iraq turned into a catastrophe. Importantly, the milk has been spilt. So there is no point in debating "if it should have happened" or "why it happened". What I am very interest in knowing is where does it all go from here. Is it really a big nothing burger? Or does it get worse before it gets better. Viking, this has been 47 years in the making. "Death to Israel, Death to the US" were not just idle threats. There have been tens of thousands of casualties over the years. Iran made a huge mistake by financing October 7, 2023. Can't see how it could get worse but to your point, we'll have to wait for some time to see if it gets better. The objective of allowing an innocent population to choose their own course is always a worthy one when it doesn't involve hate and violence. Sadly, only the US and Israel had the moral clarity to give it a chance.
Libs Posted March 2 Posted March 2 46 minutes ago, Sweet said: I’m not sure Trump will get regime change unless there are ground troops which seems unlikely. agreed- but one caveat. The Israelis are amazing at picking off key people in Iran. My hope is that with every wave of new leadership, the knockouts keep coming until no one wants the top jobs anymore. Then it unravels. i read somewhere Iran put together a task force to find out who the traitors were. And Mossad heavily infiltrated that task force….
Gregmal Posted March 2 Posted March 2 7 hours ago, dealraker said: Cubs...you in on this? Don’t we see this as kinda funny right now though? Like is it anything but a pure guess what and who placed supposed “wagers”? Is there even any way to verify this if one wanted? And then to further the amusement of such a farcical and manufactured issue, all it takes is some Iran supporting loser California liberal on twitter to, like outright lie about this, to rope the next bunch of retard liberals into taking the bait, hook, line, and sinker….into truly believing Trump is trading and profiting off Polymarkets? LMFAO you can’t make this shit up, which i suppose is why it’s so amusing.
Mephistopheles Posted March 2 Posted March 2 The easiest thing for Trump to do to profit is buy a ton of FNMA/FMCC and then do the IPO or uplist to NYSE. Given how corrupt this administration is, it amazes me that nobody is taking advantage of this simple layup.
Viking Posted March 2 Posted March 2 (edited) 17 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Viking, this has been 47 years in the making. "Death to Israel, Death to the US" were not just idle threats. There have been tens of thousands of casualties over the years. Iran made a huge mistake by financing October 7, 2023. Can't see how it could get worse but to your point, we'll have to wait for some time to see if it gets better. The objective of allowing an innocent population to choose their own course is always a worthy one when it doesn't involve hate and violence. Sadly, only the US and Israel had the moral clarity to give it a chance. @73 Reds, I am with you... the regime in Iran is pure evil. But in the middle east, I am not sure 'an innocent population' has ever decided 'their own course' - generally, its political culture/economic structure is completely different from what we have in Liberal democracies in the west. IMHO, what we have here is not normal or the natural way of things - and it takes decades (centuries?) to put in place. My view is how much of the middle east/Russia/China operate today is actually the normal way of things. The West is the abnormal way - the crazy thing is in recent decades we seem to have lost sight of how fragile what we have actually is... (and I am not talking about Trump). Edited March 2 by Viking
cubsfan Posted March 2 Posted March 2 14 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Viking, this has been 47 years in the making. "Death to Israel, Death to the US" were not just idle threats. There have been tens of thousands of casualties over the years. Iran made a huge mistake by financing October 7, 2023. Can't see how it could get worse but to your point, we'll have to wait for some time to see if it gets better. The objective of allowing an innocent population to choose their own course is always a worthy one when it doesn't involve hate and violence. Sadly, only the US and Israel had the moral clarity to give it a chance. So far, this has been a stunning success. It will be worth the pain and took great courage to do so.
John Hjorth Posted March 2 Posted March 2 39 minutes ago, cubsfan said: So far, this has been a stunning success. It will be worth the pain and took great courage to do so. 'So far' doesen't really matter much, Mike [ @cubsfan ], 2.5 days and nights in, It's already spreading, Iran attacking several [three by now!?] neighbours. So who is bearing the pain? What is the plan and the strategy for finishing this?
dealraker Posted March 2 Posted March 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: Don’t we see this as kinda funny right now though? Like is it anything but a pure guess what and who placed supposed “wagers”? Is there even any way to verify this if one wanted? And then to further the amusement of such a farcical and manufactured issue, all it takes is some Iran supporting loser California liberal on twitter to, like outright lie about this, to rope the next bunch of retard liberals into taking the bait, hook, line, and sinker….into truly believing Trump is trading and profiting off Polymarkets? LMFAO you can’t make this shit up, which i suppose is why it’s so amusing. Dang Greg I was looking, that is fishing, for cubs who usually responds lightly to an intended-to-be-silly post. And what did I get? The most biased man in politics history! Edited March 2 by dealraker
John Hjorth Posted March 2 Posted March 2 (edited) 22 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: 'So far' doesen't really matter much, Mike [ @cubsfan ], 2.5 days and nights in, It's already spreading, Iran attacking several [three by now!?] neighbours. So who is bearing the pain? What is the plan and the strategy for finishing this? Mike [ @cubsfan ], Adding : Will you, Mike [ @cubsfan ], POTUS and USA pay for this? Edited March 2 by John Hjorth
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