whatstheofficerproblem

That's our nickname for Rich Privorotsky, the analyst who put out the note. .

No jokes on me. I was simply putting fwd what I discussed at work and my colleague put this fwd. He did say it was from Privo, I didn't see Privo and posted that part here.

Looks like the bolded part IS from Privo. We have this debate every other day at work and keep throwing points out to one up each other, if it turns out to be productive then I combine all of it and post here. He did send. Didn't read the Privo part. That's what I was thinking, when did my stupid colleague become so smart. I have been tinkering with GLM in the office, so natural conclusion was that this guy saw what it's capable of and had a Eureka. LOL.

Holy shit. When was this out?

this is news to me. Can you share the excerpt?

I highly suggest trying GLM 5.2 - pretty much on par with Opus, some argue it's better even. Atlas Knowledge's stock has 15x'd YTD. The question is how far that rubber band can stretch... If frontier intelligence can increasingly be developed in the East at a fraction of the cost incurred in the West ( GLM-5.2, was trained entirely on 100,000 Ascend 910B processors with zero Nvidia silicon), then the largest capital allocators are also the ones most exposed to over-investment risk. The breaking point was always likely to be when one of the major spenders concludes that shareholder returns are better served by spending slightly less. The problem is that “slightly less” is not embedded in anyone’s assumptions. The entire AI complex is priced for ever rising capex as inference demand grows. This set up is becoming increasingly precarious. The louder this message gets the more momo bottleneck bros inch toward the exit which creates neg momentum in its own right. Now we might be inclined to say who cares about GLM because it's distilled from Claude & GPT, but distillation is/was/ and always will be only one part of the equation. It's at best a bootstrapping method, the training, harness and weights over that existing distillation is still differentiated and great. If distillation is all that is required to make a model on par with the frontier labs, I don't think GLM would be the only option. But thus far, it's the only one that has come close. Then there's the seemingly endless debate on open-source being good for hyperscalers. First, the premise is inconvertible: Jevons on volume, i.e. free ish weights collapse the price of intelligence + current elasticity = massively expanded token consumption. And in parallel, margins migrate somewhat away from frontier labs as "good-enough" OS eats the middle of the task distribution (albeit pricing will be pareto distributed anyway so wouldn't overstate this margin point). The labs currently act like demand aggregators, and this proliferates outward, ok, no debate thus far. Second, OS weights can be served by anyone: neoclouds, sovereigns, on-prem, and maybe (probably not) the edge. So not just Hyperscalers. OS explodes TAM for everyone not just the Hyperscalers. So, for me, the shape of compute demand changes from prepaid capex commitments (from two behemoths primarily) to fragmented opex amidst a price war. So, from the Hyperscalers perspective what's changed assuming OS demand make wholes (and then some) frontier lab demand? Well, the demand risk now moves onto their balance sheet. Earlier it was the VCs carrying (via financing the frontier labs) that demand risk. Now, that demand risk shifts onto hyperscaler b/sheet. Third, a question that's less clear to me: in an OS/OW inference dominated world, doesn't the cheapest integrated stack (Google) win? Doesn't the margin migrate from frontier labs to the Hyperscalers with lowest servicing cost to compete? So the OS = Hyperscaler bull case is really a cost leadership bet again. Thoughts?

Only 'Church' a 'pagan' like me enjoys.

Haven't looked at Harrow. I am not a biotech specialist in that I don't have a PhD or depth on broader topics. Casting a wider net here when it's not your core competence and looking at more than the typical 3-4 names would imo work against you. The nature of this sector is that it's very hit or miss. You'd be risking 50% to gain 10% or even lose 10% more even on good data. You need to be a masochist to enjoy biotech and that is simply not my thing. Will likely start looking around when LQDA/INBX play out.

I have told myself this a lot of times over the last few years, didn't end well. I think I'm not alone in that boat, which is why a lot of folks have an aversion to SW now.

Leaving L.A. anyone? I just can't live here. The policy and everything are absolute shit, taxes are daylight robbery esp. capital gains. Can't ever buy a house and plant some roots. There are way too many cons and too little pros. I pay all this money in tax as a non-citizen and what do I get? Get treated like a second class human being, wait 70 more years for a green card? I don't know anymore.

No. They will fade semis or more so opticals to rotate into the CPU play now. See ARM, AMD & INTC. This is a zero sum flow game and software thus far has nothing to show for as to attract their capital. For them, easier ways to make money in AI verticals. The best activity you'll see here is likely these names being up on folks covering their shorts.

As 3Q26 edges closer, Tegridy is up ~25% as of today's close (5/6). I know not if this will last by end of the quarter, but who knew running our own play pretend fund could be so fun.

You nailed it. 109 alone is worth ~$10B, 106 would add onto that and I expect the data release to be this week or next. Don't have a line to management or analysts here, but guess would be in best interests to strike while iron is hot. Two successful drugs would imply they have a 'platform' and platforms esp in cancer trade at retarded premium even when the underlying drug is shit as you have seen with a few other names discussed on the forum.

Don't lose sleep over it. I could have got my contracts for a few cents cheaper had I not thought we would have gotten a ruling by end of March and rushed to buy the calls.

Depends on your conviction in the case AND timeline. If you think we get a favorable judgement before 2H26, then the Jan 27s have very juicy r/r assuming stock goes above $100. If you want less risk and more duration, say judge might not rule this year and might not rule favorably, then 28s will get you through the tougher times if they exist. I you want to say, I'm good and I don't need to worry about all that, then just buy the underlying and collect option premium like @lnofeisone. I personally think we get a favorable decision before August. Hence put all my money in Jan 27s. I also think we see a step function change i.e. acceleration in revenues for Yutrepia right about starting 1Q26 which will be reported next week as this was the timeline for organic DPI inflection at UTHR. Should help the stock break past where it is range bound right now. A bad UTHR print tomorrow morning will also certainly help.

I think they win. Lot of good posts in the LQDA thread.

Can COHR & SNDK go to $1000 & $3000 per share respectively? I'm skeptical but assuming they even go there, the factor swings in AI names would be very bad for my mental health and for the portfolio as a whole. LQDA for now is range bound given the drug is already executing. If left alone I think LQDA would be a $500/sh stock by 2028 which implies a 10 bagger from my cost basis. If suit goes our way then 5 bagger from here when MRK acquires them. On one hand I'm looking at a very 'safe' 5-10 bagger while on the other I'm putting more money 'at risk' with AI names for at best a 2x return from here. LQDA will be a career defining trade for most involved in the name, so I positioned it as such.

1) Would be terrible capital allocation from a portfolio management perspective. 2) Sharesight doesn't allow me to add options. This is also why I sell into the print instead of just buying puts to hedge. I hold in straight in the fund(s) and friends and family accounts. Degen behavior limited to my own life savings.

At an abstract level if you took the marginal price setters of stocks in aggregate (i.e. everyone ex passive/algo), I suspect looking-back on this moment, one would conclude this was the time of max uncertainty of business models and terminal value. Therefore, analogous to you holding a 30yr bond and increasingly uncertain about duration, you'd swap to a T-bill and near term certainty. At a meta level that's what's going on, and because a narrow sleeve of the market is putting up growth (any fundamental KPI growth) today a large amount capital needs to find a home there. Or cash. Sounds absurd to think its Semis or... Cash. But here we are.

Yes, it's not a pair trade anymore. It's the ONLY trade you're allowed to make at most platforms which make up most of the market flows.

Welcome to the new age. IGV will continue to go down more whenever a software co misses than go up whenever one beats. It's all just flows at this point, this money is funding semis and semicap. If software is getting bid up, just know that it is degrossing and regrossing from a risk standpoint as positioning in semis is very overextended.

Basically Bill walked people off a cliff. Guided Adj. Op Margin down. You should keep in mind that beating consensus numbers doesn't amount to jack shit these days. You need to beat buyside's bogeys or you're a funding short. Revenue growth seen as not organic as it had acquisition tailwinds of like almost 200bps, then said Iran war headwinds lmao. cRPO growing under 20% is not what people wanna see. Then you also add in the fact that he did an accelerated buyback at a much higher price when he knew the print was going to be bad, that has a lot of folks pissed and rightfully so. "Don't fall for this parlor trick that a single button will replace 20+ years of software excellence" he said on the call. Also should know that he quoted WEB & Ben Graham with the whole weighing machine and voting machine analogy. That is a contra indicator in my eyes. PTSD from Sardar Biglari & Gary at Restoration Hardware.

Congrats! Baby seems very healthy. They'll grow up fast.

@LC, I think we all know the guy in the office will make a deal with the devil if the devil was prepared to kiss his ring. There are no second order thoughts in the WH right now, but that will change. You're also severely underestimating "majoritarianism". A handful of executives won't stand a chance when the entirety of their workforce wants to push back. @Spekulatius, they already classified it as such which is why Dario has been trying his best to kiss the ring. Palantir covering for them is the only reason there isn't a complete meltdown. Interesting article. https://blog.mozilla.org/en/firefox/ai-security-zero-day-vulnerabilities/ "A gap between machine-discoverable and human-discoverable bugs favors the attacker, who can concentrate many months of costly human effort to find a single bug" "Encouragingly, we also haven’t seen any bugs that couldn’t have been found by an elite human researcher. Some commentators predict that future AI models will unearth entirely new forms of vulnerabilities that defy our current comprehension, but we don’t think so. Software like Firefox is designed in a modular way for humans to be able to reason about its correctness. It is complex, but not arbitrarily complex"

I am a 'techbro' myself. Which is why I find the whole "AI saar" debate all the more appalling. It's wall street making the most noise followed by folks with vested interested via the model providers. Most tech employees see right through this.