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NnnnotSoSmart

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  1. Good discussion by Veriten this morning: "This Is Like Quantum Mechanics: If You Think You Understand It, You Don’t” Featuring Dr. Lars Schernikau and Rob West Dr. Lars Schernikau, energy economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, strategic advisor, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy” AND Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy (TSE). Rob started TSE in 2019 and provides unique and thought-provoking analysis on energy transition research and technologies. https://veriten.com/stream/cobt-212/
  2. "The emergence of the “Magnificent Seven” has dominated all investment thinking. Owning these seven mega-cap growth stocks has become mandatory for survival in today’s invest- ment world. These seven stocks alone now constitute almost 30% of the S&P 500’s weighting and advance daily in price. Waking up after a fitful night’s sleep, dominated no doubt by worries over underperformance tied to being underweight this group, a portfolio manager gazing into the mirror, might debate what “Magnificent Seven” stocks must be purchased the coming day. “NVIDIA has pulled back a little here; the stock is expensive here, but everyone agrees AI will be taking over the world....” On the other hand, they muse: “ Microsoft looks a bargain at only 30x earnings [only twice its long-term earnings growth!] and aren’t they doing AI too—look, they just hired that AI guru from chatGPT to run their AI business ?” Then again, “Meta’s multiple is below its estimated growth rate and thankfully, Mr. Zuckerberg has stopped wearing those silly glasses—isn’t the Metaverse just another form of AI?” Or maybe Amazon: “Now there’s a great way to play AI—even though the stocks trade at a PE of 40, everyone forgets that almost all their earnings come from server farms and cloud computing—remember: you want to own the retailers of picks and shovels, not the miners—I think my grandfather told me that.” Google and Apple are also considered. Ultimately, our sleep-deprived investor considers Tesla – maybe both the stock and the product. “After all, the IEA reiterated how EVs are taking over the world. Everyone in my neighborhood has a gleaming $100,000 Model S – one certainly does not want to be left out. It’s settled then: today, I buy Tesla—both the car and the stock.” Seldom, if ever, would our investor think about energy." 2023.Q3 GR Market Commentary.pdf
  3. Hasn't WEB said on many occasions that he has never sold a share of Berkshire stock? We should take him at his word until proven otherwise.
  4. More Oaktree commentary on state of credit markets: Full Return World with Howard Marks and Armen Panossian https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-podcast/market-commentary/full-return-world-with-howard-marks-and-armen-panossian
  5. “A Forecast, Not A Scenario” Featuring Chris Birdsall, Exxon Mobil Corporation "Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Chris Birdsall, Director of Economics and Energy at Exxon Mobil Corporation. Chris joined Exxon as an engineer in 1996 and has served in several areas of the organization including manufacturing, technology, and commercial roles over the past 27 years. For the last five years, Chris has lead a team of economists, modelers, and researchers responsible for the research and data that shapes Exxon Mobil’s Global 2050 Outlook report (linked here). It was our pleasure to visit with Chris and learn more about his team, their views on long-term energy demand and supply, and have a chance to discuss all of the inputs and assumptions in an ambitious undertaking like this report." https://veriten.com/stream/cobt-203/
  6. Howard Marks' Latest Memo: Further Thoughts on Sea Change "Unless there are serious holes in my logic, I believe significant reallocation of capital toward credit is warranted" https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/further-thoughts-on-sea-change3dda4540-569f-4415-9a5b-004fbabf06d4.pdf?sfvrsn=c3cc5166_4 Audio version: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo-podcast/further-thoughts-on-sea-change
  7. In that spirit, I recommend listening to this morning's XOM/PXD merger webcast. Darren Woods goes into quite a bit of details on the technology that they plan to deploy in the Permian. https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1639028&tp_key=f993bbd804
  8. Deja vu' all over again? Potentially same thing happened before the Yom Kippur War? From an Israeli paper... Mossad Reveals New Details About Key Egyptian Spy Who Warned Israel That Yom Kippur War Was Imminent https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-09-07/ty-article-magazine/.premium/mossad-reveals-new-details-about-egyptian-spy-who-warned-yom-kippur-war-was-imminent/0000018a-6fce-dd96-ab8b-ffce59530000 Article attached. Mossad Reveals New Details About Key Egyptian Spy Who Warned Israel That Yom Kippur War Was Imminent.pdf
  9. Haven't heard about this in our media yet: https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/ Egypt Warned Israel Days Before Hamas Attack: Viewer Comment: "Intelligence failure" You're assuming it was a failure and not intentionally allowed to happen in order to give them the political leeway to do a full invasion of Gaza."
  10. Love my Glock(s). I'll get the book. Thanks for the point out.
  11. On a related note, OXY owns 39% in a company called Net Power (NPWR). By virtue of BRK's ~25%+ position in OXY, Berkshire now owns ~ 10% of NPWR. NPWR has developed technology to produce "zero emission" power using natural gas as fuel. The first commercial scale installation will be to supply power for OXY's first direct air capture (DAC) unit in west Texas. https://netpower.com/press-releases/net-power-announces-its-first-utility-scale-clean-energy-power-plant-integrated-with-co2-sequestration/ NPWR IPO'd in June. https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2023-06-08/net-power-completes-merger-with-rice-acquisition-corp-ii-to-accelerate-clean-natural-gas-power-generation More detailed presentation on the company and technology here: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_1658a8372bf11a36555133c52282b2c5/netpower/db/3583/33173/pdf/netpower+analyst+day+presentation.pdf According to the slides the technology has a huge addressable market replacing old gas fired power generation globally. No doubt Greg Abel watching at this one for application at BHE. Could provide "clean" back up for all BHE's intermittent wind installations.
  12. Always thought Cole Smead was just Daddy's (Bill's) boy. This interview changed my mind. He's not an empty suit. https://rosebros.ca/blogs/podcast/cole-smead The interview with Dan Pickering was excellent as well: https://rosebros.ca/blogs/podcast/137-dan-pickering-pickering-energy-partners-compounding-at-20-the-value-of-trust-in-business-what-makes-a-good-energy-investment
  13. Arjun is excellent. He is now employed by Veriten. Some may find Veriten's podcasts interesting on all things energy. You can register to get weekly e-mail updates of podcasts on their website. https://veriten.com/streams/cob-tuesday/
  14. Buffett keeps buying OXY: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095017023030512/xslF345X03/ownership.xml OXY continues to redeem the preferred. Preferred share count down from 93,532 shares on May 30 to to 91,964 on June 28. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000089924323014128/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
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