Have We Hit The Top?

[james22]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

But figuring out professionally what you are good at (or even adept) is something that most young people today have an opportunity to do that some of us older folks did not, at least at the beginning.

 

The Howard Marks letter posted above mentions the difficulty simply obtaining information earlier.

 

You can extend that to everything.

 

Interested in a career field? A school?

 

What is easy today was near impossible then.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

Nonsense! There are far less barriers to success today than there ever has been in human history. The only thing preventing people from becoming “successful” is motivation and self discipline. The real difference between today and the 1950s post war era is attitude. 

 

 

 

+1 - so true.

 

I don't see a lot of work ethic and discipline out there these days, especially among the young. You young guys that do have it - will absolutely kick ass if you just focus and keep moving.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

We will need to agree to disagree. Your version of reality sounds nice but it is not what I see day to day.

Of course.  Do you think that what you tend to see day to day is a product of expectations?  As other posters have pointed out, older generations had to work harder/longer for less and we've gone from a survivalist mentality to a rather comfortable experience-oriented mentality in a very short period of time.  I just can't see how today's youth doesn't have an advantage when it comes to education and opportunity.  

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

How much if that reality is self induced? I’d say the majority of it. A quick glance at spending habits of individuals in the 1950s vs people today will tell you all you need to know. 
 

There is a reason my grandmother/grandfather had the same small house, same couch, drove used cars, an outdated kitchen for damn near 40 years. Not because they couldn’t have upgraded but because they were frugal and they weren’t constantly trying to borrow against their future. They understood the value of their time and the value of their money. People today value their things against other peoples things. 
 

I don’t feel bad for couples with 80k in student debt, combined income of 160k, a mortgage over 2k and another $1500 in car payments that are struggling to make it. 
 

 

 

It was called the Greatest Generation for a reason. They saved, worked hard, bought everything with cash, did not use debt, focused on their work & families without distractions. Getting rich quickly was the furtherest thought in their minds. It just happened since they did not live beyond their means. They were frugal & focused - which resulted in economic freedom after many years.

 

Anyone can replicate this behavior - and the results will likely be the same.

 

 

[Spooky]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Of course.  Do you think that what you tend to see day to day is a product of expectations?  As other posters have pointed out, older generations had to work harder/longer for less and we've gone from a survivalist mentality to a rather comfortable experience-oriented mentality in a very short period of time.  I just can't see how today's youth doesn't have an advantage when it comes to education and opportunity.  

 

Agree that our existence in developed countries is comfortable relative to the not so distant past. I still think the key is to work hard, save money, invest diligently and be patient. Just need to keep compounding over a long period of time. For reference I'm 39 but my spouse and her friends are about 5 years or more younger. I'm also in Canada. I see a lot of the part about expectations leading people to be unhappy - people my age that are investment bankers that own homes etc. still not being happy because they are comparing themselves to others or comparing themselves to their parent's generation. But I have also seen a lot of the latter where young people are struggling to make ends meet, to pay rent (buying a house is out of the question), to find meaningful employment, etc. Generally the mood is one of hopelessness and negativity about the future which I believe social media is contributing to. As an optimist I am an outlier.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Agree that our existence in developed countries is comfortable relative to the not so distant past. I still think the key is to work hard, save money, invest diligently and be patient. Just need to keep compounding over a long period of time. For reference I'm 39 but my spouse and her friends are about 5 years or more younger. I'm also in Canada. I see a lot of the part about expectations leading people to be unhappy - people my age that are investment bankers that own homes etc. still not being happy because they are comparing themselves to others or comparing themselves to their parent's generation. But I have also seen a lot of the latter where young people are struggling to make ends meet, to pay rent (buying a house is out of the question), to find meaningful employment, etc. Generally the mood is one of hopelessness and negativity about the future which I believe social media is contributing to. As an optimist I am an outlier.

Its somewhat ironic that politics also plays a part; conservatives tend to be more optimistic and liberals more downtrodden.  Not sure I can rationally explain that.  But you are so right about hard work, saving, discipline, etc..  Life has to be about a proper balance.  Some are raised with it; others have to adopt it.  There is genuine satisfaction in a life lived responsibly, well beyond financial rewards.

[Castanza]

38 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

The Howard Marks letter posted above mentions the difficulty simply obtaining information earlier.

 

You can extend that to everything.

 

Interested in a career field? A school?

 

What is easy today was near impossible then.

 

Exactly

 

Today you can take MIT courses online for free. You can get into healthcare with a 1-2yr school at a community college for very little money. You can take one year and bang out your A+, N+, SEC+ IT certs with free resources and a few hundred bucks in testing fees, get a entry level IT job and easily within a few years get your CCNA, Azure, AWS, etc. cert and be making 80k+ in LCOL markets before your HS peers even graduate college....

 

I know a guy who does nothing but snake drains for $250 flat rate. He averages 3-10 a day.....think about that....You don't have to be a rocket scientist to make a good living, you just have to be willing to work and take what the market gives you. Instead we have people paying 60k for a Business Administration degree from a State School to end up working as the manager of a local Sherwin Williams making 50k a year....

Edited 10 hours ago by Castanza

[John Hjorth]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Conversely I’ve also heard that the market is detached from reality and that “everyone is being greedy and euphoric/irrational” in…2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025…

 

This is to me soo funny!  - And true, also here on CofB&F during those years! Greg [ @Gregmal ], perhaps we could even add all the 'double dip' talk starting during 2009 and the years onwards to perhaps ~2012. 

[Libs]

On 1/8/2025 at 12:54 PM, james22 said:

 

The most difficult thing for a young investor to accept is that their intelligence and education, no matter how demonstrable (test scores, grades) and analytically rigorous (field of study, school ranking), gives them very little advantage.

 

Agreed......a good investor's advantage is in temperament, not in the above. Buffett is dead right about that. An obvious example is: feeling euphoric, rather than fearful, when the market plunges. This is the opposite of the typical reaction. But it's where the money is made. You don't need to have cash either, although that's nice. You can just sell dollar bills for 75c and buy other dollar bills for a 25c when stocks are washed out.

 

(BTW I'm kind of shocked to hear people on this board write that stocks were uninvestable in 2011, 2012. Good Lord. They were cheap, even 3 years after the 2009 washout and subsequent run-up. )

 

In summary, don't let macro stuff influence you. If you found a great local business you could buy for a steal, would you hesitate because of anything going on in the world today? Same with stocks.

 

Not saying this is easy for everyone, BTW. Maybe you have to be born with it. Buffett implied as much.

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

People think today is tough should time travel back to the 70’s , 80’s or even 90’s and I bet they would not like it. The labor market was totally crap for most of the decades up until the mid/ late 90’s, pollution, crime in the cities way worse than what we have now etc.

Edited 5 hours ago by Spekulatius

[rkbabang]

On 1/8/2025 at 5:51 PM, Gregmal said:

ing covid was pure comedic genius. 

 

13 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Young kids should zoom out. Look at the last 30 years.

 

How'd the market do? Despite inflation, deflation, bubbles, recessions, deficits, riots, wars, changing administrations, hurricanes, etc., it went up.

 

So? Be fully invested. Your one great advantage over more knowledgeable and experienced investor is that volatility means nothing to you.

 

 

^  This.

 

I've been fully invested since 1996.  I've pretty much never had more than 5% cash and usually less than 2%.  I got pretty much wiped out in 2000 because I was young and stupid and invested almost 100% in tech stocks.  I learned a few things after that.   I was actually in the green in 2006 and 2007, while everyone else was having a bad year or two.  If you invest what everyone else is invested in your returns will be like everyone else's, if you invest elsewhere your returns will be different from the macro (one way or the other).  Don't follow the herd. Don't put all your eggs in 1 basket, and don't be afraid to go outside of the box.  By 1 basket, I don't just mean 1 company, I mean one style of investing, 1 type of company, 1 strategy. Don't build yourself a box to begin with.  But yes, stay fully invested for 30-50+ years putting as much money as you can in along the way and you will be wealthy.

 

[treasurehunt]

8 hours ago, Spooky said:

It is just a fact that Millennial and Gen Z have less wealth at this stage than the baby boomers.

 

Is it?