nsx5200

In your case, if you can figure out a way to feed your investment history into AI, and have it generate it for you...

Unfortunately, this capitalistic system has a side effect of benefitting the rent-seeking landlords. It used to be literal land, but in a modern economy, equity in this type of economy is the new land. I admit it's an unwanted side-effect in the system and for those that do not already own enough of this new land to share in enough of its output, it is essentially a form of modern 'voluntary' slavery. In defense of the system, of all the systems that's tried, this is still the one that's shown to be the most productive. For those that realize how this system works can hack/escape it by practicing essentially what Buffet/Charlie have preached: spend less than you earn, and compound the savings (over long periods of time). For those that don't, the usual handcuffs to the system are done with tools of marketing, which many many people fall for. For those that can see past the handcuffs and practice what's preached, getting "rich" is more or less an inevitability. I agree that a pure investor, once getting past the point of FI(many of us here are also past the point of "early" in RE ), has a tough time justifying their value-add in this rent-seeking world. IMHO, it's a big driver for this Charlie quote: "I tried to be useful". How many of us here are actually pushing the envelope like Musk or the people he's inspired? All we can do is to try to push the our own envelope, however we can, and try to leave the world a bit better than before. In this knowledge-based society, one way is to continue to self-educate and try to leave behind some insights, not unlike what the ancient monks/nuns have done. IMHO, some "minor" value add as an active investor, as pointed out by Li Lu, is that active investors only get to keep and grow their wealth when they are right(*when done correctly, without corruption). So by nudging the price to where it should be, active investors are helping to decide where resources should optimally be directed in the economy a bit quicker. If that's still not enough, then I suspect given enough time, people will demand a new system, and we get to have another go at a new grand experiment. IMHO, capitalism is still an experiment, and we may be reaching the limits of it, at least in its current form.

AI is currently in the promotional phase, so a lot of it is given away for free, if not below cost. Just like how cloud/photo storage companies were giving away spaces with few conditions attached during the market share grab phase. After a while, the service providers will shift into profit/cost optimization, and free suddenly comes with a lot more conditions that steers people towards paid solutions. The fact that many of these AI/token providers have already started imposing some limits already, even on their paid subscriptions, portends to some serious cost issues. The primary lever for determining the eventual winner(s) of this AI war may be cost.

Thank you for sharing that video. At the end of the day, all this is "just money". Your view on life can change in an instant when something unexpected like that happens. All your life plan and what you value undergoes a dramatic reshuffling in these moments. When you're young, you feel like there's plenty of time, and so you trade time for money. When these moments inevitably arrive (hopefully through old age), your personal value of money depreciates precipitously relative to the stuff you really care about. IMHO, it's a worthy exercise to try to imagine such a life-changing event happening to you, and rearrange your life to mitigate/account for such an event. For all you know, these unexpected event can happen to you tomorrow. At the end of the day, money is just a construct/tool to motivate people to be productive, with plenty of side-effects, for better or worse. Don't let that be the main driver of your life. Instead, be a little selfish and think about what you would really like to do in life, and do enough of that as well. IMHO, there's a happy balance between YOLO and frugal FIRE. Cut out the useless stuff that marketing shoves down your throat, and you can achieve FIRE without much of the extreme frugality. Tagging @thepupil for this one.

It's a trade-off. Quality/time/money, pick two(Project Management Triangle). It seems like AI coding more or less still obeys that. For throw-away codes/short-lived codes, AI/vibe coding is probably fine. For longer living code, stability and proper design becomes more important. Like any tools and problems, things work better when they're matched up properly.

This is the same problem that teams have when deciding to off-shore development: spend time to formalized requirements/prompts, or spend time to do the actual design/development, with the hidden "requirements" communicated via human interactions(meetings/chats/"culture"/philosophy). With the off-shore teams, it's difficult to communicate culture and philosophy, so the end-product tend not to mesh as nicely. AI is an extreme form of off-shoring, with even fewer channels for communicating "culture"/philosophy correctly. I'm pretty sure this thread will explode if we start going down the rabbit holes of horror off-shore stories. If vibe coding works as marketed, then product managers would be writing the requirements for AI to code, but it seems like the reality is that people w/ formal training in software engineering is still needed to write those requirements for AI coding right now.

We're going to see a whole new suite of attacks and volatilities from these agentic trading. Who said value investing is dead?

If you view physical gold and BTC more or less equivalent, can you do pseudo pair trade on them and use that both of their volatility to ratchet up the growth?

It's that kind of nuance that non-technical people don't get easily. They would rather have a very simple narrative that AI will take over anything that requires "intelligence". Very black and white. For those non-technical project managers/finance analysts, a crash course in AI helps to tease out the possible from the (probably) impossible.

I like this part of the article: "Catherine Wu, head of product for Claude Code at Anthropic, says the visual flicker was a side effect of a software team moving at a rapid pace, [...]. The flicker has largely been fixed, she adds." The implication is that it is still not fixed, nor have they determined the root-caused of it to fix it. Probably because they asked AI to fix it, and AI mostly fixed it. Not saying it won't improve, but that's probably a good summary of the current state-of-the-art AI vibe coding. Seeing that AI is starting to break the open source model. I suspect GPL will come up with an update to address it, similar to how SaaS forced GPL to update to AGPL.

Like all previous "breakthroughs"(oil/electricity/broadcast medium/internet), it will follow the S-curve instead of a linear or exponential curve. There are many signs that we're at the start of the levelling off of the S-curve. We're starting to see more AI generated contents, which is used to train future generation models. We know that performance of models that train on AI generated content degrades, and we also know that they're starting to run out of human-generated contents to train future models on. We're starting to see the many constraints, many of them are physical now, of what it takes to build out an AI-centric future. At some point, incremental model improvement will slow down. Any future improvement will be grindier. Current AI will at some point be commodity similar to previously mentioned breakthroughs. IMHO, China/CCP understand correctly that AI is just a new tool, and they're using this new tool to apply it when it makes sense.

Yes. It's a bit off-topic, but Planet Money ran an episode on the type of jobs that seems promising in the future. This is a basic summary of the reliability of that report: "WONG: What Maxim found was that the top third of jobs that were projected to grow the fastest did grow a lot. They rose by 57% over two decades. The bottom third of projected jobs actually grew by only 12%." The interesting nugget in there that I find interesting is that green energy jobs tops that list while the U.S. solar industry is currently in a free-fall (with Freedom Forever, the 2nd largest installer in the U.S., according to AI Overview going into Chapter 11). Besides the green energy jobs that's somewhat related to AI, these other two made it to the list as well: Data scientists and Information security analysts. Both use a decent chunk of AI as tools in their business. IMHO, these hints to the types of business that will survive and thrive post-AI crash are the ones that actually help existing business be more productive with AI.

So should we be debating on which one is the potential baby, amongst the carcasses in the aftermath? I find that debate to be more interesting/useful than trying to time potential bubbles. If anything, it helps to be prepared if/when it happens, hopefully with a decent amount of ammo in the chambers.

I don't know about a bubble, but looking FTAI (they lease/maintain/service certain airplane engines): The reason for that bump: FTAI Power Initiative: The company launched an innovative platform to convert its extensive inventory of legacy CFM56 aircraft engines into 25-megawatt power turbines. This initiative capitalizes on the massive, rapid increase in global electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers and data centers. I'm old enough to remember the dot-com days(but not old enough to benefit from it ) when all a company had to do was say they're doing internet stuff, and their stock price would sky rocket. Not saying this is that, but it does share some of the same characteristic... In the mean time, there seems to be a lot of stuff being discarded that I'm trying to pick up so I can watch my portfolio shrink. Fun times.

China Chinese? They're at the whims of their government. When the government "encourage" them to buy real estate, they buy real estate. Many of them got burned when the government withdrew the push for real estate. Tons of stories like this keeps happening, and until they rise up, all they can do is keep grinding at it while their government do whatever they want... The people are treated just like cogs in their machine. At the risk of sounding too political, the ones that can, leave, or at least have a plan B for outside of China. The ones that can't, grind on.