Vish_ram

The only logical/rational outcome to Israel conflict is that we need Israel & Palestine to exist as independent countries with peace. Every single person/entity/country that is opposing this outcome (it may take a while for Palestine to get that independence) has to be neutralized.

An interesting parallel. Sri Lanka (majority Sinhalese) was treating Tamils as 2nd class citizens. This spawned quite a few political org in the north and it got support from Indian state of Tamilnadu (yours truly is from this place). Most of these groups were moderates and had widespread support of the people. There was no improvement in the plight of Tamils. Soon the frustration created a ruthlessly violent group called LTTE run by Prabakaran. First thing he did was to kill all opposition moderate leaders. He took total control of the movement. He basically killed more Tamils than Sinhalese. Soon India came in with peace keeping mission and this pissed off Prabakaran. He killed Rajiv Gandhi. Eventually Prabakaran got killed after a decade of civil war and LTTE is basically dead. In any conflict, the most ruthless group has to either gain power and maybe turn moderate or should get killed. Even in WW2, the most violent folks in power (Axis powers) got eliminated and we got peace. In USSR, the violent Stalin consolidated power and there was some relative peace. Only a total war can eliminate the violent group. There is no easy way out.

Everyone is focused on inflation picture. The unemp side is slowly getting uglier. Af. Am. unemp is a canary in the coal mine. It is trending upwards https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000006 The other indicator is "temp help". This is trending down solidly. Leading causes of inflation are housing & car insurance right now. These two are the most lagging ones too (As per Siegel). There's a good chance that politicians will ramp up pressure on Fed once unemp. goes higher.

@thowed sorry my post wasn't directed at you. It was a general comment. I've several intelligent friends who get carried away by the "dollar collapse", "US in decline" crap and make sub-optimal portfolio allocation decisions. Next theme is, "Markets have gone up too much, it has to drop". I know many who were in cash last several years and missed all the upside. What most don't understand is, with monetary inflation running between 8-10%, the stocks are poised to absorb that and go up. Why should markets drop precipitously when you've positive GDP growth, net immigration, productivity and dropping inflation? Last but not the least - Stagnation/lost decade etc. Many countries experience this. So it is natural to apply this theme to US. Where is it now? The US politicians may appear to be like doddering old fools who bicker always. Look at their actions to bring back manufacturing, bank regulations, energy independence etc.

If I had a penny for everytime someone predicted a downfall for US, I would be a multi-millionaire. Most people lack imagination on understanding as to why US is great. US has its flaws and chickens haven't come home to roost for fiscal deficit crisis. Even when this crisis erupts, you may have runaway inflation for a decade and then they'll fix stuff and move on. Still capital and people flow to this country. Now they are the unmatched world superpower. They lead the world in technology, biotech & numerous other fields. I remember attending the 2006 annual berkie meeting and everyone carried a book "Collapse of the dollar". Well, nothing happened. One thing is clear, there is a huge cottage industry that makes money selling the gloom/doom prediction. You can bet your last $ that this industry will thrive no matter what (the Granthams/Hussmans et al). Most of political stuff that media overplays is just noise. The cultural issues are just fluff. The divisions we see are just superficial in economic terms. The MSM knows how to make $ off of it.

It is amazing to watch the technology guys slowly challenge inefficient systems and vested interests. They blew up traditional media, disintermediated several industries, leveled the playing field for knowledge acquisition, search etc. And finally threaten the power of Fed/Banks to inflate at will.

Please welcome ODP to this club

i focus on 5 year trend mainly on FCF/sh and its growth. EPS has generally trended higher. many companies have relevered their Balance sheet. If FCF is used to buyback stock with revenue growth intact, I’m all in.

I own and like MUSA, the greatest cannibal

I wrote this a few years ago. I've a better understanding now. My thoughts on cryptocurrencies.pdf

Let me elaborate Macro: the attached pic outlines the overall approach. We use indicators like temp help, U6, job openings and several others. Compounders selection: based on several factors 1) buybacks - we run screens to find out companies that buyback at least 2%/annum and drill down more to find best ones 2) we use koyfin for checking trends in margin, profitability, multiples (on P/S, EV/EBITDA, P/E etc), trends in FCF/sh 3) company should be an industry leader (1 or 2) 4) Long term record of good M&A, buy back 5) Management incentivized and aligned 6) Always trim if overvalued and back up the truck when cheap 7) Constantly evaluate current positions with those in watchlist 8.) Maniacal focus on CFO, capex, FCF and trend 9) Ignore turnarounds, hopium stocks 10) only focus on stocks that have durable competitive advantage, pricing power 11) Avoid all commodities 99% of the time 12) Avoid leverage, penny/microcap/99% of small caps 13) Avoid foreign stocks Last 5 years the annualized returns for clients were 20% after fees Vs 12.x for S&P 500. The use of macro significantly improved the performance.

Use macro for strategic cash allocation and invest in long term compounders that will outperform S&P (positive rev growth, high ROIC, FCF, prudent buyback/M&A).

Climbing Kilimanjaro this March

Subject close to my heart. (disclaimer: I'm a RIA and my firm's objective is to outperform S&P 500 and have done it as well). Over time I've realized the beauty of cap weighted indices. 1) The index (SPY in context) just rebalances more often than a typical fund manager 2) The index doesn't bring in the emotions, biases, valuations into account. Fund managers do 3) Index is quick to embrace new companies, concepts, ideas. if world moves towards a paradigm where tech companies rule the world, index automatically readjusts itself. The idiot fund mgr are stuck in the old paradigm. 4) Index doesn't worry about macro, cash position etc. It is fully invested all the time 5) Index reflects truth, the economy, sum total of people's preferences & actions, reflects the effect of macro/micro policies, reflects total effect of collective R&D, policies of govt etc. Most folks can't price them all in fast enough in the long run 6) Index is the most efficient in kicking out losers, reducing exposure to future losers and relentlessly adding to winners. Fund managers fail to do this big time. The only soundest advice I can get behind is what Buffett gave to his wife. All rest is garbage to a varying degree. “Put 90% in S&P 500 and rest in US treasury”.

Things will change when we have a credit default event or hyperinflation due to debt crisis.

Munger taught us how to invest, how to think about investing, how to live a happy life, how to handle success & failure, understand human psychology... What more one can ask for?

Kudos to Pabrai for launching this fund. But the ugly truth 1) Triple digit cumulative underperformance over S&P 500 in last 20 years 2) Shamelessly creating a presentation that shows Buffett & his success for several pages and hinting that it applies to his fund

Medical devices industry is a bit unloved

It is sad to see Canada turn to aid and abet terrorism in India. The chickens always come home to roost.

MUSA is a great compounder and does buyback.

If one day China transitions to Democracy, it'll be messy & disruptive to world trade. India has got this wonderful opportunity to capitalize on Xi's paranoia. Now it is finally India's turn to ride the prosperity wagon.

I did the 12 mile hike to see the new volcano Litli Hrutur. Just amazing. IMG_1525.MOV

I highly recommend Iceland. My son & I finished Laugavegur trail and did the ring road in a camper van. The trail was easy and amazing.

It is crazy that the cold war has continued for 78 years now. This is a multi-generational deep seated mistrust. Will this ever get resolved? The Russians should be the most cursed people on Earth. They suffered during Lenin (during birth of Communism), Stalin (worst human loss during WW2) and now Putin.

koyfin finviz morningstar