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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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29 minutes ago, Dinar said:

@dealraker, if I may ask, why did you size them so differently?  How do you think about sizing positions in general?  Thank you.

And held my nose for her account on this one:

 

03/01/2023 Buy 125  NSCPopup NORFOLK SOUTHERN COR @ $225.7099 -$28,213.74

 

Dinar, I make no sense to myself or anyone else sometimes.  As usual I'm investing where I think I have almost no chance of losing over time - and thinking the so-called upside will as they say "take care of itself" and such.  To some degree I think AJ Gallagher has the probability (odds) to do better than Berkshire while Berkshire has more odds not to be derailed by some future competition model (than AJG).

 

 

Edited by dealraker
grammar!
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8 hours ago, dwy000 said:

Why did you pick $BRO over AJG or AON or Marsh?

Simply, because I studied it more. AJG will be my second choice. I doubt I go beyond that.

 

On AJG specifically, I don’t quite understand the clean energy investment that seem to be carried of the balance sheet. They are probably not material , but I wonder why they are in this business at all.

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33 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Simply, because I studied it more. AJG will be my second choice. I doubt I go beyond that.

 

On AJG specifically, I don’t quite understand the clean energy investment that seem to be carried of the balance sheet. They are probably not material , but I wonder why they are in this business at all.

Tax credits I believe, $1bn worth.

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37 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Tax credits I believe, $1bn worth.

 

AJG seems to be a shameless tax speculator [, said the the guy who is a reasonable happy camper in a company obtaining USD 2.187 B for 2022 in tax credits related to power production by wind and investments in affordable housing].

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1 hour ago, Sweet said:


I have never bought a Treasury before, what’s the minimum buy size?

If you buy through a brokerage it’s usually $1,000 face amount. I’m not a big fan of treasury direct except I bonds, I use Schwab but I know fidelity and Ameritrade also have commission free trades on treasuries. 

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$LW tracker position

 

Anyone else look at this? 

 

Potato company that specializes in frozen French fries. Operations in the US, Argentina (plant being built) and China. They supply big shops like MCD (~10% of Rev), as well as other chains and restaurants. Contracts negotiated every 3 years. Covid disruption has yet to normalize but they have been able to pass on the majority of this increase in COGS without issue. Global Margins is the key category and those margins have not yet come back to pre-covid levels.

 

This could be close fully priced here at $100. But there could be upside if margins come back to normal levels and the contracts are re-negotiated at higher prices. Andrew Walker had a podcast on it and in the Global segment there seems to be room to do this. Not sure management has the appetite to do so. Being that fries are one of the highest margin food products for restaurants I can see this happening. Recession proof too.  Management does have incentives at $140 and $212 share price so it's possible <--- but not necessarily a bet I'd make just on that alone. They do seem to have a new focus on dividend payout and share repurchase. They are also open to more aggressive M&A which would help reduce COGS pending locations they can secure. 

 

The Play TLDR: 

- Margins normalize around 25% (pre covid)

- Global Margins come back as supply chain issues ease, crop production comes back to normal and sales volume comes back. Management has said they are trending up. 

- Management is incentivized to grow share price with targets at 140 and 212

- Contracts renegotiated and pricing power is flexed. (MCD pays like .11-.13 per pound of fries)

 

Could be fairly valued here but worth a spot on the watchlist regardless imo. Low leverage smooth operating business with a very healthy market share, M&A hungry management in specific markets (EU & Africa) with a new focus on div and buybacks. 

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I sold another slug of ATCO (not going to wait for the last dividend before Prem takes it private) and bought some SWBI in addition to the TV and CPNG I bought earlier. 

 

If my better half bought shoes the way I buy stocks ("I know I have a lot already, but it was on sale!") we would need a bigger house. 

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