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Posted

Added to SU and re-established position in CVE (their refinery business should be printing money).

 

My cash weighting is still around 55%; I sold some Fairfax to fund my move back into energy.

Posted (edited)

"Greedy bastard day"... (Russell Crowe quote from A Good Year). Backed up the truck on CNQ. Stock is down almost 9% today ($CAN) and trading back where it was trading in mid January. Before $100 oil. And before Russian invasion was on anyones radar. Best managed/performing large cap oil stock in Canada the past 5 years. Always wanted to own... never traded a a price i was comfortable with (trades at a large premium to peers). Except today it is trading like a junior. Dividend yield is 4.6% and it paid its dividend throughout the covid lock down (rock solid).

Edited by Viking
Posted (edited)

SU.to, I would list my reasons but all very similar to what Viking just said.  I will just add that they are buying back shares and increasing production.  Perhaps not the same quality as CNQ but still solid management.  Trading around a PE of 5 for the year, based on analyst estimates.

Edited by no_free_lunch
Posted (edited)

With the Euro or Yen declining, and stocks there declining as well, there ought to be some great values available in Europe and Japan. In Europe, the car makers like MBG or Porsche Holding trade at what seems to me very low valuations. They will make tremendous money with their exports to the USA at current exchange rates. Another one with Airbus. 
 

I would avoid something like BASF which is heavily dependent from NG gas as an input and likely will have to switch back to crude oil as an input. However, the electric power will not be an issue and most of the NG powered plants (like dryers for automobile paint shops) can be switched to crude.

 

The car makers can sell everything they can build for this year for sure and probably next year for premium prices. MBG stock yields almost 10% (5 Euro dividend) . Porsche Holding May spin off Porsche which covers a good deal of the EV.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted (edited)

I sold an underperforming fund of my parents and bought half Berkshire b shares and half Bank of America shares from the proceeds.

 

Edited by Charlie
Posted

MHK - US based flooring company.  Not without some issues and housing could be a small headwind but at 7.5x earnings a lot is priced in.   I could be wrong but I don't see US housing construction falling off a cliff, it seems somehow they will continue to build.

Posted
On 6/30/2022 at 6:39 PM, Spekulatius said:

The loss of Geico happened a while ago and is priced in. IAA is still a duopoly with CPRT, so I think it will do OK. It's available at a reasonable price now after the recent decline (Actually COVID-19) lows. I think the activist (Ancora) will put pressure  on management:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3813616-iaa-gains-as-activist-holder-calls-for-sale-of-company-or-ceo-to-be-replaced

Do you understand why the numbers are so much worse than CPRT? I haven't looked into it, but they weren't that far from each other in terms of revenue a handful of years ago. Since then CPRT has grown faster, and margins are just much better. Is there some big structural differences, because it's an interesting industry?

Posted
15 minutes ago, kab60 said:

Do you understand why the numbers are so much worse than CPRT? I haven't looked into it, but they weren't that far from each other in terms of revenue a handful of years ago. Since then CPRT has grown faster, and margins are just much better. Is there some big structural differences, because it's an interesting industry?

Not sure their numbers got that much worse relative to CPRT. IAA spun off KAR in 2019, so that's reduced their revenues. IAA's profit metrics were always worse and I think one reason is that CPRT owns their scrap yard facilities while IAA tends to lease them.

Posted

Partially unwound a position I put on against TLT a few months ago. Bought back TLT that I had sold short at about a 6% profit, sold the $123 PUT options I had bought at a profit. I'm still holding onto some $100 and $105 TLT puts that expire in August. 

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