How much are you down since the inauguration?

[Sweet]

Rough day.  I count my blessings that I was sitting on a lot of cash, luck not skill in hindsight.  Still I’m down a lot more than the SP-500, I’m down nearly 15% since January 20th.

 

Edit - about 8% from Jan 1st (since everyone is doing ytd)

 

Edited April 3, 2025 by Sweet

[Parsad]

3%....was 50% cash.  Now down to 40% cash after today.  Didn't hedge the market or economy, because there was really nothing wrong with it...contrary to popular belief!

 

Christmas is still coming as we get economic data over the next few months.  Powder is dry!  Cheers!

[Castanza]

~4%with a good amount of deployable cash, no debt, and 3 years of living expenses in cash (This is the type of stuff that makes me glad I paid off my house early) 

 

Birkenstock season is right around the corner....Gonna get me a case of Red Stripe, a pair of shade and ride this shit out while tending the garden/mowing the lawn and chasing my son around the yard. 

 

Simple life 

[Ghost]

Why not wait Sanjeev?  Some reason I thought you were more cash than 50%, posts about lots of dry powder.   Maybe it is your tax sheltered accounts I was thinking of.  

[thepupil]

15 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Rough day.  I count my blessings that I was sitting on a lot of cash, luck not skill in hindsight.  Still I’m down a lot more than the SP-500, I’m down nearly 15% since January 20th.

I'm up a little bit. REITs / RE have outperformed, mean reversion after significant underperformance year last year, illiquids are not going down (fake outperformance). 

 

I should probably be rotating into high quality companies going down in price, but I've activated full pansy mode and am not. 

 

Edited April 3, 2025 by thepupil

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, Ghost said:

Why not wait Sanjeev?  Some reason I thought you were more cash than 50%, posts about lots of dry powder.   Maybe it is your tax sheltered accounts I was thinking of.  

 

I can't time the market...not sure anyone can!  So when things start to get cheaper, I average in...and then I average out as they go back up to intrinsic value.  Not everything is really cheap, just pockets...so I suspect we have much further to go.  Cheers!

[Milu]

Down about 13.5%year to date. And that’s with a decent amount of dry powder (almost 30% cash at the mo). Hopefully this downturn has a bit of legs so I’ll get a chance to deploy. 

[Castanza]

5 minutes ago, thepupil said:

illiquids are not going down (fake outperformance). 

A good observation 

[John Hjorth]

11 minutes ago, Castanza said:

... Birkenstock season is right around the corner....Gonna get me a case of Red Stripe, a pair of shade and ride this shit out while tending the garden/mowing the lawn and chasing my son around the yard. 

 

Simple life 

 

That reads as a very good plan, @Castanza! 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

I was up 6 ytd until today. I’ll be happy to end up flat. Mostly thanks to a huge brk weighting, mkl, ffh, and NNI. 

[Xerxes]

My Q1 return was +0.67% … so flat 
 

portfolio reached all time high yesterday in dollar terms before we were liberated 

 

today is different beast

[no_free_lunch]

I am close to flat as of yesterday.  Brk and ffh and huge dry powder saving the day.  Slowly wading in.  Lots of cheap stuff, most markets are not over priced imo. 

[dipod]

Down probably about 5%. SCHD and FRFHF have been incredibly helpful. But will average in with the current volatility we have. Will be nice to do some LEAPS but I still think we have a ways to fall.

[LC]

YTD down 3.8% - mostly Aecon, buoyed by FFH

[Paarslaars]

YTD -13%. Having a large BTC related position and a bunch of leaps really hurts in days like these but will also be euphoric when things pick up again.

 

Less tarrifs more BTC buying Donald, go go go!

 

Today reminds me of august 5 last year when everyone went crazy over that Japanese carry trade unwinding. Was the lowpoint of the year but only a few months later I was up big.

[flesh]

Up 3%, bought a little amzn for the first time today. 70% cash. I think parsad and I invest similarly. Might have bought some 3 year leaps on Goog as well. 

[Jaygo]

19 minutes ago, LC said:

YTD down 3.8% - mostly Aecon, buoyed by FFH

 

Are you implying most of your portfolio is Aecon

[LC]

No - Fairfax is by far my largest position (~40%). 

Aecon is/was around a 10-15% position, but the drop from CAD 28->17 has contributed most to the overall portfolio being down ~4%.

[Eldad]

BRK, CSU, TRRVF, & Cash are 45% so not bad so far. 
 

Recession will spare no one but cash if Trump doesn’t call off the dogs soon. Still so far to fall if this isn’t a bluff. 

[Parsad]

39 minutes ago, Eldad said:

BRK, CSU, TRRVF, & Cash are 45% so not bad so far. 
 

Recession will spare no one but cash if Trump doesn’t call off the dogs soon. Still so far to fall if this isn’t a bluff. 

 

Almost certainly a short-term bluff, but unfortunately the damage is being done.  That's the way this guy works!  Look at what I do to my neighbors and friends...look at what I'm going to do to you...now come to the table.  No different than the mob!

 

Employers are laying off...struggling small businesses are considering closing or filing...consumers are going to start reducing consumption...trade will slow dramatically...like the Pandemic, this is a sudden blow, but one that can be shortened or ended.

 

Cheers!

[rogermunibond]

Whether tariffs are a bluff or a real policy change (at least 4 years) is not knowable.

 

Admin people like Navarro, Lutnick, Trump seem to want manufacturing reshoring, tariffs as new revenue source.  So what are you negotiating?  Lowering foreign tariffs doesn't really help either of those goals.  Committing to buy US goods might but most of the US goods people would purchase are commodities (agricultural) or Boeing planes.  Are they going to buy US made autos?  Probably not.  Bessent and USTR Greer seem like they are completely out of the loop.

 

Bessent is running around telling countries not to retaliate like some scarred toddler watching daddy beat up mommy.

 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2025 by rogermunibond

[Red Lion]

Down 25 basis points since January 1 in my stock investment accounts. Was sitting at 3.59% YTD as of close yesterday. I've got a lot tied up in illiquid real estate, so who knows how that goes this year, rates are headed down and replacement cost is heading way up, but we might be headed into a recession. 

[SharperDingaan]

+9%. Primarily because of swing trades, and cashing out 80%+ of our equities pre 'liberation day'. Bought most of the BTC back this morning, along with a good chunk of the oil/gas. UBS bought back on the euro exchange.

 

Orange Boy f***** ** in a big way here, and is going to need help from the fed. Not much risk to holding BTC at this point.

 

SD

 

[frommi]

overall +7% in € (in $ +11%?) mostly because of my heavy weight in tobacco stocks/consumer stocks and some good timed hedges. No cash.

Edited April 3, 2025 by frommi

[longlake95]

Just now, frommi said:

overall +7% mostly because of my heavy weight in tobacco stocks/consumer stocks and some good timed hedges. No cash.

BTW Frommi, good call on the hedges. I was sucking my thumb.