Milu

Ya I don’t think it’s a bubble either. Blown away each day with how helpful Claude is for my job. Only have the pro subscription for now and annoyingly keep hitting token limits. Could only imagine how much stuff could get done with unlimited tokens. Investment wise I’m just sticking with my mag 7 stocks (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta etc) who I continue to believe will see great payoffs to the large capex spend they are currently putting out. I’ve no edge in chips or memory type stocks so don’t own or plan to buy any of them. But they likely do have good runway ahead of them.

Ya one of my pet hates is when I see some wall of text from Gemini cut and pasted into a thread as if this is supposed to add insight or back up an argument. All of us on the forum are well able to ask questions to Gemini/Claude etc and get similar answers so I don’t know how it adds anything to the conversation. I think AI is a great tool but should be used as an add-on to people’s investment research not a replacement.

Add llm's to the mix and now every investor can spew bolded bullet points about how company xyz's moat is invincible, or condensing 10k's and earnings call transcripts into 5 key takeaways, thus missing any real understanding or nuance. I actually think next few years could be a fruitful experience for the genuinely good investors.

I’d like to think so. Although I suppose if any massive capital control or special one off ‘solidarity’ tax was going to be rolled out in some emergency situation, the last thing they would want to do is telegraph is in advance and lose all the potential money they would be trying to seize.

I’d put it on a spectrum, with most of my wealth I am like you said growing wealth through productive assets like stocks, but that doesn’t mean you can’t decide to hold some portion of your wealth in something outside the system. Some sort of insurance policy if you will. While having all of your wealth stored at various counterparties (your bank, broker, etc) will likely work out 99% of the time. There is always that minuscule chance that something happens, maybe your account gets hacked and drained, maybe some new government comes into power that decides to confiscate 10% of all wealth for some emergency situation, maybe a socialist government gets into power and decides to levy all kinds of new taxes/levy’s on people with large account balances. Unlikely yes, but in that circumstance it would be quite nice to have some portion of your wealth in an asset that they can’t confiscate, could be taken across borders simply through a plane flight, or could be sent to any person globally at the click of a mouse.

Can’t we all just get along. Bitcoin (self custody, held on hardware wallet) has one use case for me, a fixed supply, non sovereign asset, with zero counterparty risk. Same as physical gold without the hassle/risk of having to store it in a safe, large bid ask spreads, and possible risk of it not being pure gold. The large growth in price since I bought is a welcome side effect rather than the specific reason I hold it.

The 4 year cycle always seems like a load of nonsense to me. Doesn’t really make and logical sense and the sample size of 3 or 4 cycles is too short to draw any actionable conclusions. Although I’ve thought this for a long time and so far it seems to be following the cycle again. Maybe I’ll change my mind if it bottoms later this year and then proceeds to boom in 2027.

My strategy is to live in Europe, but have a portfolio of mostly US stocks. Best of both worlds.

Thinking tennis for my twin daughters too who both just turned 5. Bought them a golf club recently too and brought them to the driving range. They just started swimming lessons too which they seem to be enjoying.

Thanks for answers so far, the main reason I still track is a want to see if my results over the long term have been better or worse than just dumping it all into S&P index fund. So far they have been better. But I suppose the question I’d have for myself is if they ended up being worse would i then decide to go the index fund route or not. If I’m being honest I don’t think I would as I enjoy the investing challenge and process. So the tracking of returns is just a habit really that perhaps no longer serves a purpose for me.

Likely a question for some of the wealthier folk on the board but I’m curious if you tracked your returns and CAGR etc during the earlier part of your wealth building but then when wealth got to a certain size it kind of became pointless. Obviously that number would be different for everybody depending on where they live and their lifestyle but if you are a good investor over time you will eventually get to a point where your net worth is large and whether you end up getting 5%, 10% or 20% return on that it mostly becomes meaningless. Do you still like to track it to compare yourself to others or see if you still got it, or do you now just check your net worth every now and then, and as long as it’s not dropping all is good. Maybe some people never tracked their returns, nothing wrong with that either. For me I track things quite diligently but sometimes wonder should I bother.

The challenge I have with buying Salesforce though is that the only thing I like about it now is that it is so hated by the market and seems like decent value. Everything else such as the leadership, capital allocation skills, constant insider sales of stock historically, large SBC (although that is same for most SAAS businesses). I live in Salesforce every day due to my job configuring it for clients and I can see the sticky nature of it, I just don't really like or trust the leadership that much.

I think we are getting close to the point where I might hold my nose and buy one or two SAAS stocks. CRM is almost worth a shot at this price. If they can execute well stock could be a bargain, if they don’t then I think the product is sticky enough at large enterprises to stop it from falling down completely.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spacex-erupts-after-hours-trading-soaring-above-210-and-surpassing-apples-market-cap Seems a tad bubbly and this is coming from somebody who has drunk the Musk Kool-aid . No position in spacex but just enjoying the show.

Probably because he is a decent human being who doesn’t just dump his wife the second he becomes rich and popular. Make me respect him more actually.

Initial 4% position in Uber. I think it represents a great entry point at sub $68. Like the management, low capital intensity (for now), global brand recognition and expansion, and expansion of new higher margin services like Uber one subscription and advertising. Current price is just about down to a price I am comfortable paying, would average in further should price drop down below $50.

Yes fully agree with this.

I’d count myself in the enthusiast bucket. Currently paying €20 a month to use clause pro, my employer provides copilot as the standard ai tool for staff but I haven’t found it great. As to what I would pay each month, if I had to I could see myself paying €100 per month for it. It’s too useful to for the work I do that I’d hate to have to go back to the old way. And I’m not even the target market for Claude code, I’m a consultant with some average coding experience rather than an actual software engineer. I can only imagine how much value a proper software engineer gets out of it.

Zcash down 40% today after critical bug discovered that may permit counterfeiting.

There definitely seems to be a lot of PTSD or scar tissue with the long term Fairfax holders. 10 years of a stock going nowhere would do that to a person. I’ve recently been buying Fairfax for the first time so don’t have any baggage around what the stock did in the past or that it recently had a 20% pullback. It’s still a small position at around 3% of portfolio but I’m hoping to add more over the coming months. I’m still not fully convinced Prem and co have shaken that habit of trying to buy turnaround stories, I thought they had but then seeing them take decent stake in under armour feels like they are back to the RIM/Blackberry days. I’m not sure why they didn’t take a leaf out of buffets playbook and just buy high quality large compounders like Coca Cola, Moodys, Apple etc. if only Prem had a Charlie munger sidekick to help him see the light. Maybe my assessment is wrong and they have genuinely got these type of value traps out of the system.

Tracking and caring about calendar year performance is the first issue I see. And focusing on the performance of a single 10% holding is the second issue. Better off to focus on trailing 3-5 years compounding and to just look at the overall portfolio. The short term volatility of the market and individual stocks over a 5 month period (year to date 2026) is mostly meaningless and should be to you and your wife regardless of what age you are.

Yes I think you are right, the development approach hasn’t really changed, so even though it takes much less time to do things, the estimates for the user stories and what has been sold to the client is based in the old world. So developers are just delivering a standard chunk of work faster and probably chiliing more with nothing to do. So yes while developer productivity has improved massively in the sense of delivering the same chunk of work faster it doesn’t yet show up in actual productivity numbers because the pre AI block of time estimated or sold for the work hasn’t factored in the change in speed of what can be delivered.

That’s fair enough. And yes everybody’s personal situation is difference. Perhaps you just need to reduce the weighting you have in the stock by a few percentage points. I would disagree on the description of unexpected drop. I have about 10 stocks in my portfolio and in each year I would fully expect that they could drop 20% or more no matter how bright the outlook is for each of them.

Yes I would assume anybody who invests in stocks would understand that 20%, 30%, even 50% drawdowns in individual positions is par for the course. Hasn’t Berkshire dropped at least 50% on three occasions.

Hard to say, I personally use Claude each day for my job in Salesforce development and it’s allowed me to complete tasks in 30 mins that would ordinarily have taken 4 to 8 hours. I suspect the same for other developer use cases. I think we will eventually get to a stage where each employee is given some sort of token budget each month to use as they please. So an employee cost will be some combo or salary plus token cost. For AI early adopters maybe the ratio is 80% salary 20% token, and for more conservative companies maybe 95% 5%. I expect the portion of token percentage to trend upwards over time.