Share your Portfolio 2024

[dealraker]

19 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

I am curious about the positions you have added based on the advice of people here (JOE, META, RTX,....), are they substantial compared to your long term holdings?

They are not $-wise significant.  But...in order of significance in my view here's my financial life's major decisions:

1) holding the stocks I inherited from dad and the one from granny Sink.  Some haven't done well, one went to basically zero, but overall it was simply crazy good luck.  They began in a trust so I had no access for years, plus all those "old people" I knew telling me not to sell my stocks and a family that never sold anything ever.

2) taking AJG stock (wife's idea not to cash out was maybe the best of all decisions).

3) selling Brookfield and about 100 other small stocks to buy land (or parts of land) and to buy the stocks like Joe.  While I do have more money coming in than going out Berkshire pays no div and AJG in comparison to value pays little.  So to do something I significant I have to first do something else that I'm not particularly comfortable with...but getting better over time.

 

Headed out on a trip on a Boeing airplane.  Wish me luck and I probably won't read too much here for a couple of weeks.   

Edited January 11 by dealraker
clarity

[Paarslaars]

Thanks for the info. Try not to sit close to the doors 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Rough numbers:

 

8% Fairfax Financial

5% Exor

3% Fairfax India

3% Eurobank

3% Altius minerals

2% oil companies

2% Sberbank

2% Freddie Mac preferred 

1% Alibaba

 

40% diversified fixed income funds

20% crypto/Bitcoin

7.5% diversified EM funds

1% REITS

 

~10% in sub-1% names (ATT, Porsche holdings, Coinbase commodity miners, options positions, hedges) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 11 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Dave86ch]

20 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

I think he just defines it as large, medium and small sized positions?

Exactly @Spekulatius

Edited January 12 by Dave86ch

[Spekulatius]

22 hours ago, dealraker said:

Various accounts so I may miss something.  Year begun included:

 

Berkshire: inherited 1975, Dad had a whopping 100 A shares which wasn't worth much back then at all.   My bro, sis, step-mom and me all got 25 when dad died in 1975.  Even after I worked for the broker that sold the stock to dad (and he obsessed over Buffett)...it was at least 12 years (it was in a trust) before I knew much about Warren Buffett.  Hyper-active brain dead young man I was. 

AJG begun 1994

 

Berk and AJG are 80% or so.

 

This bunch below including what I posted in the initial post quoted above gets it to 96% or so, so another 16%:

 

Coke 1975 

Pepsi 1975

Note: every damn body in my area owned these two above back then...and I mean every damn body.

Norfolk Southern 1976 I inherited 1/27th of granny Sink's shares and it has now been in the family for 84 years and according to my cousin CPA who is a financial whiz it has compounded at 10 plus percent in these 84 years.  I have added to it multiple times including recently below $192 or so.

Erie Indemnity I think the year 2004 if I am not mistaken as my former insurance partner uses them in his firm and recommended it

Brown and Brown begun as Poe and Brown bought once 1994

Aon 1994

Marsh 1994

CSX late 1990's

Canadian National 2003 or so

Canadian Pacific about 2011

Mondelez begun as Cadbury in 2000

Tootsie Roll 1988

Markel 1988 Family worked there before beginning their own CPA firm and every damn body in Richmond clammored for Markel stock

Lowes early 1990's when they were destroying our builders supply business.  Back then we sold carpet, paint, basically everything that Lowes does.  Today we are a contractors only builders supply and millwork.  We sell via the millwork all over the southeast.

Fairfax early 1990's but substantially added to in the last almost 3 years

St Joe 2023 or whenever at $36.5 is the largest initial investment I've ever made

 

Think that's it except for a slew of small holdings which include some attained in tiny amounts long-long-long ago. 

 

Biggest sale for me ever was the Brookfield bunch.  I sold not because I thought I knew something bad, I sold because despite the business and stock dominating my time and mind I simply knew zero.  Best riddance in my life regardless of where the stocks go.  My mind is free of it and that's what counts most for me. 

 

 

 

@dealraker - thanks for sharing. The by far most consequential decision was to do nothing.

[SongDonkey.AI]

@dealrakerthank you very much for sharing this!

[nwoodman]

On 1/12/2024 at 5:42 AM, dealraker said:

They are not $-wise significant.  But...in order of significance in my view here's my financial life's major decisions:

1) holding the stocks I inherited from dad and the one from granny Sink.  Some haven't done well, one went to basically zero, but overall it was simply crazy good luck.  They began in a trust so I had no access for years, plus all those "old people" I knew telling me not to sell my stocks and a family that never sold anything ever.

2) taking AJG stock (wife's idea not to cash out was maybe the best of all decisions).

3) selling Brookfield and about 100 other small stocks to buy land (or parts of land) and to buy the stocks like Joe.  While I do have more money coming in than going out Berkshire pays no div and AJG in comparison to value pays little.  So to do something I significant I have to first do something else that I'm not particularly comfortable with...but getting better over time.

 

Headed out on a trip on a Boeing airplane.  Wish me luck and I probably won't read too much here for a couple of weeks.   

Thanks, a really interesting anecdote for my boys.  Greatly appreciated

 

I always find it helpful  to learn more about the parents of people I am interested in. Could I trouble you for a short anecdote on Dad and how he came to be invested in Berkshire in the first place? I realise you are travelling  so no hurry.

[gfp]

3 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Could I trouble you for a short anecdote on Dad and how he came to be invested in Berkshire in the first place? I realise you are travelling  so no hurry.

Charlie can answer for himself obviously, but he has shared the story many times of Marshall Johnson of McDaniel Lewis and Co. in Greensboro, NC putting many of his clients in the same great stocks.  Seems that quite a few families in that region (if they were wise enough to hold the stocks) owe a lot of thanks to Mr. Johnson.

[dealraker]

4 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Thanks, a really interesting anecdote for my boys.  Greatly appreciated

 

I always find it helpful  to learn more about the parents of people I am interested in. Could I trouble you for a short anecdote on Dad and how he came to be invested in Berkshire in the first place? I realise you are travelling  so no hurry.

Angela unfortunately has both an ear infection and bronchitis, bad bronchitis, so our "trip" is less active than we'd hoped.  We are out on Bald Head Island and also spending three additional nights in Southport, NC.  We do a trip about every six weeks where we stay somewhere for a few days to a couple of weeks.  Not all are far away or in other countries though.

 

This guy https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/greensboro/name/marshall-johnson-obituary?id=16271917 as GFP states, operated in Greensboro, NC and oh lordy what a life he had as far as investing given it was truly off-beat and unique.  But he had all his clients in Berkshire early on.  Often it is hard for people to grasp that there are those around you, you'll likely not know them, who have owned stocks like Berkshire for a long time.

 

Marshall Johnson ran McDaniel Lewis and Co (McDaniel Lewis, the man, was Marshall's father-in-law) and I worked for him for two years until others convinced me to take a flyer into the insurance business.  Marshall made a market in smaller southeast otc banks and insurance companies.  For instance, while I was there as I've written before, one day I go in and Marshall says, "Charlie, we need to immediately update the spread sheet for First Citizens NC as that 'crackerjack' Warren Buffett has bought a slug of FCNCA from High Point (NC) Bank and Trust at half of book value."  Marshall also represented High Point Bank and Trust and he has brokered that deal.

 

So on an electric typewriter using a lot of white-out I updated the spread sheet on legal paper size for FCNCA.  By the way there was also First Citizens SC, a completely separate bank, run and controlled by the same Holding family.  FCNCA today continues to thrive by the way and I'll bet you a plug nickel Buffett didn't sell all his stock personally.  I have no knowledge of that, it is just a guess.

 

So my dad, who played both ways for Duke (his image is on the column of Walace Wade Statium holding the Sugar Bowl) when Duke beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, was the least interested in business man you'd ever meet.  He was 20% owner of the local newspaper, other brothers and his mother owned the remaining stock, and he was publisher and editor.  (The paper was later sold to the NY Times).  Marshall handled my dad's and all his brothers stock investments.  Interestingly, all his brothers at one time owned Berkshire stock, but either they or their children sold of course.  I do remember most of his brothers (they all outlived dad by years) discussing tax free bonds so that's likely where they went to "make it out of this world" or whatever.  I assure you Marshall didn't lead that parade though!

 

Dad died young, Mom died years previously, so Central Carolina Bank and Trust (my mother's family thingy, her father was mayor of Durham, NC) held the stocks in a trust until I was 30 and Berk was one of them.  So it is a few years later when I'm working for Marshall, I have stock in Berkshire, and of course I'm clueless as to who Warren Buffett is.  Marshall's training me but I'm an off-the-charts extrovert with what you'd describe as hyperactive attention deficit tendencies.   The only savior for this is the trust dad set up on Marshall's suggestion...I could only watch and not get my greedy little hand on it.  12 years later?  I'm beginning to understand Warren Buffett!  And I do get constant credit from my cousins now, those in the builders suppy and millwork, for getting them invested big time in Berkshire by 1990.  They were selling the out-of-town builders supply businesses (Lowe's was killing us!) and buying stocks...and Berkshire was about 1/3rd of what they bought.  Turned in to being about 3/4 of what they owned. 

 

Another interesting point is this.  Dad dies in 1975 and both state and federal inheritance taxes are beyond anyone, any of you guys, imagination.  On top of that, dad and his brothers also owned 4 radio stations: Cheraw, SC, Benson, NC, Ridgeland, SC, and one other one that for some reason I can't remember right now.  All a.m. stations, all lucrative for years after they were bought.  But........along comes F.M. stereo radio and.......

 

So dad's estate was $1.2 million in 1975; we paid right around $500,000 in taxes; luckily family lawyers did the estate for free.  But by the time the estate was getting settled up the value of our a.m. radio stations was plummeting in a fashion you'd find crazy alarming.  In the end two were shut down and the other two sold for about 15% of the value when dad died, the value we were taxed based on.  The very same stations I remember hearing dad say, "We paid $35,000 for it and it has a $35,000 net profit each year."  Yep huge profits went to losses!  F.M. ruled!

 

Rambling.  Have a good day.  No spell check so pardon what doesn't make sense.

 

So in the end, my brother, sister, step-mom, and I inherited very little....but Marshall's presence was such that all of us kept our stocks and we all ended up doing fabulously because of that decision

[nwoodman]

4 hours ago, dealraker said:

Angela unfortunately has both an ear infection and bronchitis, bad bronchitis, so our "trip" is less active than we'd hoped.  We are out on Bald Head Island and also spending three additional nights in Southport, NC.  We do a trip about every six weeks where we stay somewhere for a few days to a couple of weeks.  Not all are far away or in other countries though.

 

This guy https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/greensboro/name/marshall-johnson-obituary?id=16271917 as GFP states, operated in Greensboro, NC and oh lordy what a life he had as far as investing given it was truly off-beat and unique.  But he had all his clients in Berkshire early on.  Often it is hard for people to grasp that there are those around you, you'll likely not know them, who have owned stocks like Berkshire for a long time.

 

Marshall Johnson ran McDaniel Lewis and Co (McDaniel Lewis, the man, was Marshall's father-in-law) and I worked for him for two years until others convinced me to take a flyer into the insurance business.  Marshall made a market in smaller southeast otc banks and insurance companies.  For instance, while I was there as I've written before, one day I go in and Marshall says, "Charlie, we need to immediately update the spread sheet for First Citizens NC as that 'crackerjack' Warren Buffett has bought a slug of FCNCA from High Point (NC) Bank and Trust at half of book value."  Marshall also represented High Point Bank and Trust and he has brokered that deal.

 

So on an electric typewriter using a lot of white-out I updated the spread sheet on legal paper size for FCNCA.  By the way there was also First Citizens SC, a completely separate bank, run and controlled by the same Holding family.  FCNCA today continues to thrive by the way and I'll bet you a plug nickel Buffett didn't sell all his stock personally.  I have no knowledge of that, it is just a guess.

 

So my dad, who played both ways for Duke (his image is on the column of Walace Wade Statium holding the Sugar Bowl) when Duke beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, was the least interested in business man you'd ever meet.  He was 20% owner of the local newspaper, other brothers and his mother owned the remaining stock, and he was publisher and editor.  (The paper was later sold to the NY Times).  Marshall handled my dad's and all his brothers stock investments.  Interestingly, all his brothers at one time owned Berkshire stock, but either they or their children sold of course.  I do remember most of his brothers (they all outlived dad by years) discussing tax free bonds so that's likely where they went to "make it out of this world" or whatever.  I assure you Marshall didn't lead that parade though!

 

Dad died young, Mom died years previously, so Central Carolina Bank and Trust (my mother's family thingy, her father was mayor of Durham, NC) held the stocks in a trust until I was 30 and Berk was one of them.  So it is a few years later when I'm working for Marshall, I have stock in Berkshire, and of course I'm clueless as to who Warren Buffett is.  Marshall's training me but I'm an off-the-charts extrovert with what you'd describe as hyperactive attention deficit tendencies.   The only savior for this is the trust dad set up on Marshall's suggestion...I could only watch and not get my greedy little hand on it.  12 years later?  I'm beginning to understand Warren Buffett!  And I do get constant credit from my cousins now, those in the builders suppy and millwork, for getting them invested big time in Berkshire by 1990.  They were selling the out-of-town builders supply businesses (Lowe's was killing us!) and buying stocks...and Berkshire was about 1/3rd of what they bought.  Turned in to being about 3/4 of what they owned. 

 

Another interesting point is this.  Dad dies in 1975 and both state and federal inheritance taxes are beyond anyone, any of you guys, imagination.  On top of that, dad and his brothers also owned 4 radio stations: Cheraw, SC, Benson, NC, Ridgeland, SC, and one other one that for some reason I can't remember right now.  All a.m. stations, all lucrative for years after they were bought.  But........along comes F.M. stereo radio and.......

 

So dad's estate was $1.2 million in 1975; we paid right around $500,000 in taxes; luckily family lawyers did the estate for free.  But by the time the estate was getting settled up the value of our a.m. radio stations was plummeting in a fashion you'd find crazy alarming.  In the end two were shut down and the other two sold for about 15% of the value when dad died, the value we were taxed based on.  The very same stations I remember hearing dad say, "We paid $35,000 for it and it has a $35,000 net profit each year."  Yep huge profits went to losses!  F.M. ruled!

 

Rambling.  Have a good day.  No spell check so pardon what doesn't make sense.

 

So in the end, my brother, sister, step-mom, and I inherited very little....but Marshall's presence was such that all of us kept our stocks and we all ended up doing fabulously because of that decision

Cheers, exactly what I was after.  In a nutshell, you were forced, via the trust, to observe the power of compounding and that lesson was a game changer.  Good for you

 

Wishing Angela all the best for a speedy recovery.

[RedLion]

I gave my stock portfolio earlier in the thread, but I’m about 

50% real estate 

50% closely held corp stock 

15% stock portfolio. 
 

The debt being on the real estate but not too much. 

[cknucks]

There's a small deep in the money option position in PYPL that will take that holding up to about 4% of NW if it stays in the money at expiry in June.  Also "cash" includes a couple of short duration bond funds in my 401k that amount to about 2% of NW.

 

[Spekulatius]

On 1/15/2024 at 12:13 AM, cknucks said:

There's a small deep in the money option position in PYPL that will take that holding up to about 4% of NW if it stays in the money at expiry in June.  Also "cash" includes a couple of short duration bond funds in my 401k that amount to about 2% of NW.

 

@cknucks First time I see someone mentioned $APD - what your thesis here? Supplying gases is a good business and if the hydrogen becomes a means of energy storage or replaces dirtier alternatives, then it should work out very nicely for $APD and competitors like Air Liquide or Linde.

 

I am not sure the valuation is that great at a time of higher interest rates, because the business need a lot of Capex.

[Gmthebeau]

na

 

Edited February 28 by Gmthebeau

[linus_md]

59 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

I have the vast majority in T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation fund.

 

Why don’t you simply buy SPY and save yourself the .7% fee?

[Gmthebeau]

40 minutes ago, linus_md said:

Why don’t you simply buy SPY and save yourself the .7% fee?

because this fund also invests in bonds, mostly high yield.  The returns are as good as SPY but less risk.  At least historically they have been.  SPY eventually becomes overweighted by market cap and mean reverts.  It works out over long periods, but the returns are not as smooth.

Edited January 20 by Gmthebeau

[cknucks]

@Spekulatius I've pretty positive on their capex.  Their current business is trading at a fair price with the market skeptical that they can bring in all of their energy transition projects on time and on budget.  On a base case basis here in the US, they will be building green and gray hydrogen projects that will offer after-tax IRRs in the mid teens and higher b/c of overly generous tax credits that they can monetize either on sheet, via tax equity, via tax credit transfer or via direct pay from the US government.  They also have energy transition projects in other countries.  So my bet here is on buying into a good and profitable existing business while also getting a business that can earn high rates on a huge amount of capex. I'm usually leery on huge capex spend, so this is the one situation that I'm leaning into.  We'll see.

[sleepydragon]

BRK — 100% of my retirement fund, 50% none retirement. Never sold a single share except in 2013.

 

Para — I am still holding because I am subscribed to paramount+ and it’s actually pretty good (I tried Netflix and Prime, get bored after a while). After all, the Shari and Buffett bought at $30..

 

SAVE — it has become a much less important part of my portfolio after its weight has “passively” dropped by 50%… and after I sold about 1/3 of it.

 

 

Yellow Corp — It’s a forced bankruptcy that could be 0 or 100-200% return, depending on a litigation outcome (specifically, if the union’s multi employer pension fund can get paid from the bankruptcy even after they already made whole by govt bailout which paid them $30bn).  
 

The remaining ones are:

BUR

UNTC

OXY

CPRI

ACI

 

 

 

[Masterofnone]

Well this is the COBF board...

Whittled my BRK position down to 64% (been buying the dips for 25 years and it has served me well.)

Fairfax 13%

Moving 4% to an outside manager next week

2-3%

PCYO, PX, CLWY, JOE, WFC

 

[UNF2007]

Retirement- VTSAX for 401k/ Solo 401k and C and S Fund for TSP

 

Taxable Accounts- went to cash 1 week ago. Lost conviction in some of my ideas and due to work requirements won't have the bandwidth to track things like I should for the next 6 months or so, so I'm sitting it out for now. Cheering you all on from the sidelines though. 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

On 1/24/2024 at 1:37 PM, cknucks said:

@Spekulatius I've pretty positive on their capex.  Their current business is trading at a fair price with the market skeptical that they can bring in all of their energy transition projects on time and on budget.  On a base case basis here in the US, they will be building green and gray hydrogen projects that will offer after-tax IRRs in the mid teens and higher b/c of overly generous tax credits that they can monetize either on sheet, via tax equity, via tax credit transfer or via direct pay from the US government.  They also have energy transition projects in other countries.  So my bet here is on buying into a good and profitable existing business while also getting a business that can earn high rates on a huge amount of capex. I'm usually leery on huge capex spend, so this is the one situation that I'm leaning into.  We'll see.

@cknucks Thank you for your input. I am very aware that technical gases is a structurally advantaged business.

 

I have  two concerns with APD:

1) I am not sure that the valuation reflects the higher interest rates going forward. APD is basically similar to an utility as they invest in assets with LT cash flows growing faster than the economy probably because they supply growth sectors like semiconductors and trends to outsource some non- core functions (like producing gases for internal consumption) rather than buying/outsource them. Cost of capital is likely to go up. Sure new project will likely take this into account, but the existing plant stock is likely locked in. Maybe those distinguishing plants benefit from inflation.

 

2) Most of the new projects have not locked in contracts. APD‘s management spent a lotmof time answering questions about the increased cost of the Louisiana plant, which their board just approved for $7B in Capex. there are no locked in prices for the end products which is Blue hydrogen and ammonia. They don’t lock in prices because they think that they can sell those green product for healthy premiums to regular products when the plant comes online. Maybe, but I am not sure we can predict those premiums yet. APD has a ton of the projects at several stages of progress, so there is a bit of execution risk which could add delays or increased cost and perhaps most likely both.

 

I have put APD on my watchlist and will it monitor closely.

 

At a PE of 20x, I don’t think there is all that much margin of safety here, but yo may not give them enough credit for the longevity of the business.

Edited January 29 by Spekulatius

[Crip1]

FFH - 26%

Fairfax India - 9%

MKL - 9%

BRK - 5%

JNJ - 5%

JPM - 5%

BABA - 5%
CATY - 3%

BYD - 3%

Other Stocks - 5%
AI ETFs - 7% (There is money to be made in AI, but no way I can pick winners any better than a dart-throwing monkey, so I'll give some experts the chance.
Other Mutual Funds - 7%

Cash - 13%

 

[SharperDingaan]

21 hours ago, Crip1 said:

FFH - 26%

Fairfax India - 9%

MKL - 9%

BRK - 5%

JNJ - 5%

JPM - 5%

BABA - 5%
CATY - 3%

BYD - 3%

Other Stocks - 5%
AI ETFs - 7% (There is money to be made in AI, but no way I can pick winners any better than a dart-throwing monkey, so I'll give some experts the chance.
Other Mutual Funds - 7%

Cash - 13%

 

 

Great to see you back!

SD

[Monsieur_dee]

Roughly

25% Short term GIC ( house Reno in next 6-12 months)

20% BRK 

20% CSU

8% OXY

4% FFH

Rest is mostly a basket of (ebay , lpx , ally , cof , bac, C )

[Spekulatius]

On 1/27/2024 at 12:26 PM, Spekulatius said:

@cknucks Thank you for your input. I am very aware that technical gases is a structurally advantaged business.

 

I have  two concerns with APD:

1) I am not sure that the valuation reflects the higher interest rates going forward. APD is basically similar to an utility as they invest in assets with LT cash flows growing faster than the economy probably because they supply growth sectors like semiconductors and trends to outsource some non- core functions (like producing gases for internal consumption) rather than buying/outsource them. Cost of capital is likely to go up. Sure new project will likely take this into account, but the existing plant stock is likely locked in. Maybe those distinguishing plants benefit from inflation.

 

2) Most of the new projects have not locked in contracts. APD‘s management spent a lotmof time answering questions about the increased cost of the Louisiana plant, which their board just approved for $7B in Capex. there are no locked in prices for the end products which is Blue hydrogen and ammonia. They don’t lock in prices because they think that they can sell those green product for healthy premiums to regular products when the plant comes online. Maybe, but I am not sure we can predict those premiums yet. APD has a ton of the projects at several stages of progress, so there is a bit of execution risk which could add delays or increased cost and perhaps most likely both.

 

I have put APD on my watchlist and will it monitor closely.

 

At a PE of 20x, I don’t think there is all that much margin of safety here, but yo may not give them enough credit for the longevity of the business.

@cknucks regarding APD - did you see the very marginal dividend increase? It’s only a bit more than 1% and traditionally, APD raised their dividend by 10% annually. The current raise is much smaller. I may be reading tea- leaves here, but I think there is a decent chance that their outlook disappoints or that there is an issue with their ongoing investments.