cknucks

@Spekulatius I've pretty positive on their capex. Their current business is trading at a fair price with the market skeptical that they can bring in all of their energy transition projects on time and on budget. On a base case basis here in the US, they will be building green and gray hydrogen projects that will offer after-tax IRRs in the mid teens and higher b/c of overly generous tax credits that they can monetize either on sheet, via tax equity, via tax credit transfer or via direct pay from the US government. They also have energy transition projects in other countries. So my bet here is on buying into a good and profitable existing business while also getting a business that can earn high rates on a huge amount of capex. I'm usually leery on huge capex spend, so this is the one situation that I'm leaning into. We'll see.

There's a small deep in the money option position in PYPL that will take that holding up to about 4% of NW if it stays in the money at expiry in June. Also "cash" includes a couple of short duration bond funds in my 401k that amount to about 2% of NW.

FRFHF. Lots of research and Viking's book sealed the deal for me.

Thank you. Great drop!

I don't understand it. I don't see that they have any qualifications to produce any of these drugs at any price. Why Kodak? Forget the loan. Why are they getting a contract?

IAC.

BRK.B...have to be nearing 1.3x on Q4 book value once that gets reported.

Same. Just finished the audiobook. I find that it's always a good practice to immerse myself in "Buffetology" at the beginning of every year, if only to re-ground myself and my thinking.

Exactly!

If we're talking hiphop, you can't forget Kool G Rap's classic "Road to the Riches"...

1. Get weight down by at least 12 lbs 2. Embrace the muck at work...From time to time, I get to thinking that since I'm a Managing Director at my boutique IB that I am a big picture guy and more than just an analyst. Back to the basics this year. 3. Minimize investment mistakes. The realized losses on my mistakes last year (most notably, CVEO in December, HNR, IBM leaps being chief among them) cost me a good 5~6 points of return. This year, I'm going to be less concerned with making $$ and more concerned with avoiding value traps. 3. Back to adiposity: get body fat % below 20%. Wanna get back into < size 34" waist genes (@ 5'5" tall) and generally get back to the shape I was in 5 yrs ago.

I'm somewhere in the 9~12% range, and I'll go back and compute the IRRs for all of the individual accounts and the total portfolio New Year's Eve. That said, I've been been keeping track of performance of all of my brokerage accounts throughout the year and found something interesting to ponder for the future. My 401K is my best performing account. I have a handful of brokerage accounts, 3 of them with Interactive Brokers, where commissions are dirt cheap. Meanwhile, my 401K, which is invested in stocks of my choosing, has commissions that are pretty expensive, $100 per trade. The heirarchy of XIRRs for my various accounts are as follows: 1. 401k (only equities, no shorting, no options...trades here tend to be establishing a full position or selling a position in full completely) 2. IRA (dirt cheap commissions with covered call trades, no shorting) 3. After-tax Accounts (dirt cheap commissions, shorting, covered calls, naked puts, etc...) The more I did this year, the lower my returns. I'll keep track of this, but I'm of the mind that I need to simplify my approach and avoid overtrading going forward.