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Gmthebeau

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  1. I am skeptical we are overbuilding single family, but I do think there is over building in multi-family. The supply has not come online yet, but there is a ton of it being built. Housing prices increase with the rate of inflation in the long run and thats it. This has been proven over and over by history. They might increase more rapidly in some parts of the country for awhile until they implode, but this has happened repeatedly. There is nothing new. Low mortgage rates caused them to increase very rapidly in 2020 and early 2021, but thats over. They are now topped out for awhile and will either drop in price or go sideways for awhile, IMO. I dont see them really increasing more. Home sales have slowed down dramatically from last summer. I agree bonds and cash are not real alternatives to hold long-term, so some people are comfortable putting more into a house. Younger people seem very comfortable with crypto through so I am not sure they will lever up a huge mortgage or most of them anyway.
  2. I don’t like the banks at all, but I’m more a long term investor. I did raise a lot of cash recently from FANG that I will redeploy gradually in other growth companies with more upside. If I was trading in and out a lot the banks might be ok here. Long term most of them have underperformed since GFC as they are so regulated now they can’t make the same returns. Also who knows what their loan books are.
  3. Many people really just dont want to work very hard these days, so they try to live as cheap as possible. I don't really know why, but I am guessing many of them grew up watching their parents work really hard, get divorced, and not be very happy in general. They figure why not try something else.
  4. I think its likely we see something like you said what happened at the end of 2018 or March 2020. While it may be fairly quick meaning not years a drawdown of 20-30% in the indexes typically means many stocks will fall 50%. I would rather be a buyer than fully invested going into something like that. Its interesting that some people think cash is stupid while their hero Buffett holds huge amounts just for that purpose to buy when their is blood in streets. You simply can't do that when you are always fully invested. Its about risk management. An individual investor has a big advantage of being able to move in and out very quickly. You dont have a mandate to remain fully invested like an ETF or mutual fund. Giving up that advantage strikes me as not the best idea.
  5. agree, I raised my cash position recently to highest ever. We will find out in a few weeks probably if it’s going to roll over or ramp higher. Margin hit an all time high last month. If it starts dropping its lights out.
  6. Raised alot of cash, sold AMZN, MSFT, GOOG and many others.
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