Crip1

First and foremost, thanks for the update...definitely appreciated. Treasury rates peaked in October, and they've not "done much since"...nicely done. After hitting the valley around the start of 2024, have been slowly rising since and then rocketed higher over the past week. It would really be interesting to know if they are going to use this decline in pricing to push out duration. -Crip

The question of whether or not we we fully understood Fairfax is complicated to say the least. Below are a few aspects of Fairfax along with some commentary: · Did we foresee the interest rate environment? I don't think so. · Did we foresee the hard market continuing as long as it has? Again, I don't believe so. · Did we think Fairfax was executing well and was well positioned? For the most part, yes, we did. We may have under estimated how well they were executing, but we did see that the company was in a much better place. Many things have gone well for the company over the past four years, some of those things were within their control and some of other things were outside of their control. To the question of whether or not we understood what Fairfax was four years ago, we likely didn't. Part of the reason was the exogenous factors that, as investors, we never want to assume that everything's going to be wonderful because that doesn't always work out. To your point about underestimating the company, we likely did, but healthy pessimism was part of the reason. While typing this, something else popped into my head. Viking, you've been commended many times over for your analysis of Fairfax, and said commendations were definitely deserved. One other aspect of your posting that was really impactful is talking me out of being "grounded" to a stock price from months past. Many times in my investing life I've sold part of a position with the theory that a recent run-up was temporary and that I could re-buy at a price 10% of so lower than the current price. I was tempted to do that with Fairfax, but you reasoned me out of it. I really appreciate that. -Crip

Not 100% sure of that. The video of "Help me dig up dirt" suggests more than a short-term short and distort deal, but it may be a matter of "Hey, we orchestrated a 10% drop last time, let's try it again"...the "cost" was a 2 minute video which, clearly, isn't much. -Crip

Yeah, clearly an element of Skip Bayless for you sports fans out there or Jim Cramer at play in that accuracy is of secondary or tertiary importance compared to showing bravado and being bombastic/memorable. Saying something stupid is OK as long as people remember who said it. I mean, seriously, fake Canadian accents, cartoons and TicTock video clips? Only compelling enough to drive out the weakest hands with volume no higher than normal. On the other hand, part of me wishes it was more successful. Their initial report allowed me to buy and sell in a period of less than a week which reduced my net cost per share by $18.50…I’d not mind doing that again. -Crip.

Part of the benefit would presumably be not having to talk about the share price any more. It's now "out of sight, out of mind" so if it does go fully belly up, it's a non issue. If, by the grace of God, somehow it starts making money, it could be sold eventually not unlike the Pet Insurance business. Improbable, but not impossible. -Crip

This did not look as strange to me as it did to you I thought it was intended more tongue in cheek than anything else. Years ago Prem was criticized, and I thought the criticism was valid, or not owning up to mistakes. That's one thing that Buffett does consistently, and he's done it for years. If one goes back 10 to 15 years when the future did not look quite as positive as it does now, being humble to that level may not have been a good idea to attract new shareholders. Buffett, on the other hand, has had insane levels of success so humbleness is not scare off potential shareholders. This paragraph and the overall tone of the letter seems almost like a maturation of the company. There seems to be less selling going on and more simply reading the news. All of the above in my humble opinion. -Crip

Fairfax - 26.5%. Fairfax India - 8% -Crip

Well, I have a half billion so do the rest of you have the other half billion? -Crip

I think two things are muting the reaction today. First, though I don't have data to support this, historically the reaction to positive earnings news has taken 2-3 trading days to materialize. No idea why this is, but it's happened on more than a few occasions. Second, the earnings report came in reasonably close to expectations with positive surprises (4 year run rate) offset by negative surprises (slowing premium growth), so much of this was already baked into the price. All above in my humble opinion. -Crip

Likely right

Not sure if it is technically "hand-wringing" but I do like the idea of using some proceeds from the TRSs to buy back stock. The difference I see between investing in TRSs and buying back one's own stock is that the TRS is technically temporary where the buyback is more permanent. Example, we get some black swan even that harms the company and, accordingly, brings the price of the stock down, we're hit with a double-whammy as not only is there harm done to the company, but the TRS investment becomes less valuable, driving down the price even more. It's leverage against the shareholders. Keynes famously said "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". Buying back stock is more permanent. So, while I am not in favor of getting out of the TRS position, I'd be happy trimming the position and using proceeds to juice the buyback. Also, not pounding the table on this...just seeing the attractiveness of doing so. -Crip

Not going to exonerate Muddy Waters, but this looks to be ambulance chasing. -Crip

Yeah, pretty much. And the company has not changed much in the past month, either. -Crip

Well, I backed up the car and added a few into the trunk this morning. -Crip

Concur 100%