UNF2007

Retirement- VTSAX for 401k/ Solo 401k and C and S Fund for TSP Taxable Accounts- went to cash 1 week ago. Lost conviction in some of my ideas and due to work requirements won't have the bandwidth to track things like I should for the next 6 months or so, so I'm sitting it out for now. Cheering you all on from the sidelines though.

53% in 2023, due to a pretty hard rally into year end in my little concentrated portfolio. Best performer for the year by far was INTC. Have held it for 3 yrs so it has been a drag on prior years, have traded in and out for tax loss harvesting in prior years. Really surprised how long it took the market to come around to the value of the idea of not concentrating 80% of advanced fabs in politically/geographically unstable areas. Had a few risk arb things I piled into with everyone else, Activision acquisition being the biggest one that added a few %. C was added in the low 40s a share based in large part on the information shared on here/ deep value proposition so thanks everyone who provided insight on that one. My biggest mistake in years past has been getting uncomfortable and selling to soon and not allowing the momentum reversal that happens in these beat up names to fully play out as they go above my IV calculation, plan to work on that for 2024, and play around with letting stuff run 25-30% above IV before exit. Hope to add 1-2 ideas this year. Separately I'm finally getting off active duty this year and will be able to work as a surgeon in the civilian world which carries at least 3X the salary of what I'm used to in the Army and maybe more with ownership opportunities in a new surgery center that is being built by the group, so will see how that plays. Will give me more capital to play with in the taxable accounts for sure. PHIN 25% C 25% DIS 25% INTC 50%

What a bummer, learned so much from him over the years not just investing but about life, dealing with adversity. RIP will be missed.

We have had vacation property in costal Florida for several years. The dwelling is insured by USAA, but the policy specifically excludes wind and flood. I have a separate policy for wind from Citizens. My two experiences with citizens have been awful, a few years ago one of the storms came through and did some damage to my roof, ripping off fascia and shingles. Citizen's came out and did an assessment, after about 3 months of waiting ended up denying my claim because their models(not actually measured) said the wind speed wasn't sufficient to cause the damage on the day the claim was filed. Then sent me a letter saying my policy would be canceled unless I could prove the roof had been repaired to their satisfaction, in a timeline they determined. I had another separate event where wind blew the flashing off my chimney during a thunderstorm and water leaked into the home and caused damage to the walls. Same story claims adjustor came out and 3 months later said it was a defect with the manufacturing of the chimney, and their model didn't show wind speeds needed for that damage. Letter in the mail saying all damage needed to be repaired or policy is canceled. My opinion is that Citizen's is insurance in name only, to allow for mortgage underwriting to continue. But they have no intention of paying claims, outside of maybe a major named storm direct hit, fortunately haven't had to experience that yet. Unfortunately the only recourse is to sue them, but then they have the right to cancel the policy, so outside a catastrophic event it doesn't make sense to pull that lever.

I work in general surgery, I really don't have a good answer for you. I think for most things a good primary doctor will go a long way. If you want to spend more time with the doctor I would consider concierge medicine/direct primary care. It has changed somewhat recently, but most primary care reimbursement is based on E&M coding, which generates RVU's based on a complex set of rules that require specific documentation to support. That documentation and all the back office support/cost is the rate limiting step. If you go with a cash based practice they will have much more flexibility on time they can spend with you/ flexibility with scheduling because they don't have to worry about all the medicare/insurance company rules. Thinking holistically is going to come from them getting to know you/what is important to you over a reasonable period of time. While Mayo and the others are well known, I think it would be a pain to travel out there unless your close or really need the world expert in something.

31.14% according to IBKR. Small concentrated portfolio. Some of the winners were TPL, which I initially bought in 2020 after reading a horizon kinetics report, and fully exited this year, thanks Murray! AMZN, which I just had luck with entry/exiting prior to the run down. Also DIS, that June to Aug window, again pure luck. Went to 80% cash by around mid August, decided I needed to sit out for a bit with the Fed moves, also took a new teaching position as surgical faculty with a cross country move, and preparing applications for subspecialty fellowship around that time and just didn't have the bandwidth. Biggest unrealized loss so far has been INTC, which I have held since 2020. Finishing up the book Chip Wars, gives a very good historical perspective on the major players.

Anyone planning on taking advantage of forced selling in the names?

Sold some INTC and WFC, still like both, but I'm wanting to start raising some cash and both have run up quite a bit. Want to be about 50% cash going into Q3. Not a market timer, but has been harder to ignore that everyone and their brother (including my own) is speculating in the market right now. I don't see how the enthusiasm can get any higher, although maybe it can.

Had a patient come through clinic, had both vaccine series (Moderna), and was covid negative before I operated on him, I know because we test the day before. 3 weeks later he is in the ED with fever/cough etc and comes up covid positive, despite the vaccine, young otherwise healthy guy. n=1 but I'm still being very careful, the new CDC guidance notwithstanding.

For the guys that are buying puts on these overvalued names, what kind of duration are you looking at? I feel like this trade really requires some macro insight that I'm lacking. Mainly because your probably not going to see much if any correction in prices until something changes with interest rates/inflation and provides some alternative to equities.

http://www.columbia.edu/~dn75/Analysis%20and%20Valuation%20of%20Insurance%20Companies%20-%20Final.pdf Check that out, quite a read but helped me learn about insurance when I was studying it.

8% in the actively managed acct according to IBKR, kind of disappointing, given the opportunity set over the year and the numbers others have posted. But I had some extenuating circumstances, got deployed twice once for a 3 month Covid humanitarian mission and then to Kuwait for 3 months during the summer this year. The early deployment really screwed me as that was when everything was on sale and I was more or less out of the game. I keep about 70% of my NW indexed though just as a hedge on my own stupidity. Going over my moves from the year my biggest mistakes continue to be selling to soon, and sitting on to much cash (maybe lacking conviction in my ideas?). May start allowing things to run 20-30% above what I think the IV is going forward to capture some of that and correct for overly conservative estimates. Couple of trades that were interesting this year and worked out Bought KODK puts after the run on them entering the pharm ingredient business. Should have done this one at much bigger scale in retrospect. MSN, Net-net that worked out pretty quickly for unknown reasons, have to give credit to the Value Guys for that idea, again should have done much larger scale. XPEV and QS- not super proud of these as they are really outside the framework of what I do, basically greater fool EV plays that worked out pretty well, but again I failed to do at large enough scale. WFC- pretty much lucky timing here, value was so compelling it was hard to ignore. Still own this. INTC- largest position I currently have, third point getting involved is a plus. Have made this a meaningful position so if it works out will actually have some impact in 2021.

Welcome back, looking forward to reading your story.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-michael-burry-explains-104146627.html Not sure if this fits here, but definitely something I have been thinking about in the past few years.

We got an email from the CEO of the hospital system I work for, that they are implementing an AI program, to scan all charts and report if anyone is accessing medical records that they shouldn't. Right now they use a random audit system, but supposedly the AI will be monitoring every person on the system in real time.