Political Posts

[Sweet]

3 hours ago, LC said:

No clue about Mandani or NYC politics anymore, but re: Sanders 

 

If he won in 2016 we'd be looking at a much better state of America vs today - if for the very reason that he is the only politician I actually think wouldn't use the office for the gain of himself/ his cronies. And I think congress/courts would buffer more extreme policies. 

 

For example - one of his big platforms is reduced military spending, reduced healthcare costs.

IMO his approach to cutting expenses in those areas would be more thoughtful vs. the DOGE approach (honestly, couldn't be worse).  

 

to the larger question: ultimately why is someone like Bernie needed? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States

 

People hear socialism and start frothing at the mouth.

But they have no problem with Trump taxing US consumers via tariffs to fund massive tax cuts for the 1%.

 

So the issue with Bernie is not a policy problem, it's a marketing problem. 

Bernie’s a socialist with a net worth that puts in the top few % in America.  He’s a legit moron.

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Bernie’s a socialist with a net worth that puts in the top few % in America.  He’s a legit moron.

Yup. Politicians are like actors or WWE participants…it’s all for show and the end game is just about their own self interest 

[Viking]

Economic theory (and common sense) tells us that tariffs are a tax. Not complicated or controversial (I don't think).

 

Trump and the US has just begun a pretty consequential science experiment. It involves tariffs and a bunch more. It will take another 12 to 24 months to begin to understand what it means economically (and politically). 

 

We will get important data points over time. We might have gotten one today. Below is what the Wall Street Journal had to say:

---------

Now We Know Who’s Paying the Tariffs

Producer prices surge, and real wages still aren’t rising fast enough.

• https://www.wsj.com/opinion/now-we-know-whos-paying-the-tariffs-081f461d?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

"President Trump knows the public is skeptical about his tariffs, which is why Administration officials are anxious to convince voters someone somewhere else in the world will pay for them instead of American households. Inflation data released Thursday tell a different story.

 

"The producer-price index (PPI) in July rose 0.9% in the month and 3.3% over the last year. Consumer-price data released Tuesday (0.2% monthly and 2.7% for the last 12 months) implied households weren’t experiencing tariff-induced price increases, except in some services such as medical care. The PPI numbers tell us this is partly because companies are paying higher prices but haven’t passed them on to customers—yet.

 

"The producer-price data get worse the closer you look. Goods and services both experienced substantial inflation, of 0.7% and 1.1% month-on-month respectively. Goods and services related to business investment in particular are becoming pricier, with the cost of manufacturing equipment rising 0.4% in one month and related services 4.5%.

 

"Prices for intermediate goods—components and raw materials—are also on the rise. Prices for materials used in durable-goods manufacturing increased 1.3% in a single month, and components for manufacturing increased 0.4% in the month.

 

"This hasn’t shown up in consumer prices so far because many companies entered the Trump tariff era with large cash reserves or wider margins, so they can absorb these costs for the time being. But these companies can’t do this forever. Meanwhile, cash lost to paying tariffs or paying tariff-induced higher prices isn’t available for reinvestment in the business, or to return to shareholders."

[Spekulatius]

Trump nationalizing industries faster than Francois Mitterand in the early 80‘s:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/trump-administration-is-said-to-discuss-us-taking-stake-in-intel

 

[dwy000]

11 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Can someone (anyone) explain the appeal of socialism to a city like NYC?  Has it worked anywhere?   How most NY democrats remain largely silent on this issue is mystifying. Are they purposely trying to destroy their own city?  

This is very standard for NYC.  Every 3rd or 4th mayor they go extreme. Ed Koch, David Dinkins.  And then they swing back the other way.  The overswing in both directions is the natural course of politics at most levels. 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Economic theory (and common sense) tells us that tariffs are a tax. Not complicated or controversial (I don't think).

 

Trump and the US has just begun a pretty consequential science experiment. It involves tariffs and a bunch more. It will take another 12 to 24 months to begin to understand what it means economically (and politically). 

 

We will get important data points over time. We might have gotten one today. Below is what the Wall Street Journal had to say:

---------

Now We Know Who’s Paying the Tariffs

Producer prices surge, and real wages still aren’t rising fast enough.

• https://www.wsj.com/opinion/now-we-know-whos-paying-the-tariffs-081f461d?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

"President Trump knows the public is skeptical about his tariffs, which is why Administration officials are anxious to convince voters someone somewhere else in the world will pay for them instead of American households. Inflation data released Thursday tell a different story.

 

"The producer-price index (PPI) in July rose 0.9% in the month and 3.3% over the last year. Consumer-price data released Tuesday (0.2% monthly and 2.7% for the last 12 months) implied households weren’t experiencing tariff-induced price increases, except in some services such as medical care. The PPI numbers tell us this is partly because companies are paying higher prices but haven’t passed them on to customers—yet.

 

"The producer-price data get worse the closer you look. Goods and services both experienced substantial inflation, of 0.7% and 1.1% month-on-month respectively. Goods and services related to business investment in particular are becoming pricier, with the cost of manufacturing equipment rising 0.4% in one month and related services 4.5%.

 

"Prices for intermediate goods—components and raw materials—are also on the rise. Prices for materials used in durable-goods manufacturing increased 1.3% in a single month, and components for manufacturing increased 0.4% in the month.

 

"This hasn’t shown up in consumer prices so far because many companies entered the Trump tariff era with large cash reserves or wider margins, so they can absorb these costs for the time being. But these companies can’t do this forever. Meanwhile, cash lost to paying tariffs or paying tariff-induced higher prices isn’t available for reinvestment in the business, or to return to shareholders."

 

We will definitely keep an eye on it.  The WSJ for months telling us by now about the economic disaster that would unfold this summer.

 

Why believe them now?

[Viking]

57 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

We will definitely keep an eye on it.  The WSJ for months telling us by now about the economic disaster that would unfold this summer.

 

Why believe them now?

When it comes to the PPI report, I think what The WSJ reported today is pretty similar to others. Here is a link to the Reuters story:

• https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-producer-inflation-heats-up-goods-services-prices-soar-2025-08-14/

Bottom line, I am just trying to understand how everything is playing out. 

[Gregmal]

Over the last few months if nothing else we have seen that the MSM will find whatever narrative they want to in the CPI reports. Last week, same release, we saw nothing. While also seeing "inflation softer than expected" while it also "comes in hotter than expected". CNBC literally had both those same headlines at once! Then when that doesnt work we fixate on the next report. We're told specific goods are going to increase because of tariffs, such as autos, groceries, etc....and they go down but then they say "services" went up because of tariffs. Oh nice, portfolio management fees 5% gee goly.....hike those rates! Then next month they go down but groceries go up a fraction of a point and it's "see they went up"....End of the day I think there is very little value in trying to extrapolate or draw rate of change conclusions on these stupid, random, normally fluctuating monthly tenths of one percent data points. Been there, seen that now since 2022. And honestly, even if we do these extrapolations, ~3% inflation wont dent anything meaningful economically. The big boogeyman exists solely to feed off attention.  

[cubsfan]

^^^ exactly. They'll keep fear-mongering. LOL

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Over the last few months if nothing else we have seen that the MSM will find whatever narrative they want to in the CPI reports. Last week, same release, we saw nothing. While also seeing "inflation softer than expected" while it also "comes in hotter than expected". CNBC literally had both those same headlines at once! Then when that doesnt work we fixate on the next report. We're told specific goods are going to increase because of tariffs, such as autos, groceries, etc....and they go down but then they say "services" went up because of tariffs. Oh nice, portfolio management fees 5% gee goly.....hike those rates! Then next month they go down but groceries go up a fraction of a point and it's "see they went up"....End of the day I think there is very little value in trying to extrapolate or draw rate of change conclusions on these stupid, random, normally fluctuating monthly tenths of one percent data points. Been there, seen that now since 2022. And honestly, even if we do these extrapolations, ~3% inflation wont dent anything meaningful economically. The big boogeyman exists solely to feed off attention.  

 

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ exactly. They'll keep fear-mongering. LOL

 

Guys, you have to admit, heading into 8 full months of power, other than securing the southern border and massive deportations of illegals, there hasn't been many wins...unless you count Stephen Colbert's ending...but he's still on for another year to torch MAGA.  

 

Yes, he's pushed through a ton of stuff, cancelled a ton of stuff, but not that many actual clear-cut victories.

• War in Middle East is still raging with massive starvation now.
• Putin keeps getting Trump to pull his finger and Trump keeps falling for it.
• Tariff deals are coming out about as slow as Heinz Ketchup.
• Epstein relationship keeps popping up.
• Hunter Biden, what a twat, keeps giving Trump and Melania the finger...hopefully Trump actually imprisons him!
• Obama is still widely respected even if his picture has been moved at the White House.
• Most countries around the world under tariffs are making deals elsewhere and for the most part, patiently waiting out for TACO.
• DOGE was a bust.
• Courts are still weighing in on tariffs.
• Cities and many states continue fighting MAGA policies.
• Powell keeps defying Trump's wishes for massive rate cuts.
• Inflation and unemployment still not moving in the right direction.

So, while he's been very busy, the outcomes success rate is somewhere around 25% so far.  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

... Tariff deals are coming out about as slow as Heinz Ketchup. ...

 

lol! We are always here to help and assist eachother! - It even seems there exists a vulgar way to do it! :

 

YouTube : Chowhound - 7 Ways to Get Ketchup Out of a Glass Bottle - CHOW Tip.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

-From substance to show the things go!

Edited August 15, 2025 by John Hjorth

[changegonnacome]

11 hours ago, Viking said:

Trump and the US has just begun a pretty consequential science experiment. It involves tariffs and a bunch more. It will take another 12 to 24 months to begin to understand what it means economically (and politically). 

 

1000%

 

My fundamental base case.....whether you believe what he's doing makes sense or not......is that the US political system by design isn't conducive to radical change most especially that which is multi-year in nature (Trump's reshoring dream etc.)........Trump is attempting to do by dictate/executive order/arcane laws....that which should be done by traditional politicking even god forbid bipartisanship.......the Trump tent pole agenda items (tariffs,reshoring & nativism) will be stopped out potentially first the courts, then by a change in Congress or eventually and most certainly by Father Time.....the science experiment will not have time to play out to its result......Trump's legacy will live up to the moniker I have for him 'Captain Chaos'.......in hindsight I think the vast bulk of whats happening will end up being pointless policy volatility that hurts steady state growth......Trump will get to say, undoubtedly, that what he was doing was working but the Democrats/deep state stopped it before it had a chance

 

Fairly certain at this stage given projections that Trump's first gift to the United States after being elected is managing to shave a full 100bps of 2025 GDP growth off what a sleepy-Kamala Harris led 'steady as she' goes administration would have likely delivered. In an economy the size of the United States its going to be very hard to catch back up that 100bps over his last three years in office.

[73 Reds]

14 hours ago, LC said:

Because they’re stacked with republican picks currently - so they’re good at buffering against democrat-led policies, but they roll over for their own party policies.

Oh, so only when the *desired* congress/courts are making those policies that you want.  Got it.

[73 Reds]

4 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

 

Guys, you have to admit, heading into 8 full months of power, other than securing the southern border and massive deportations of illegals, there hasn't been many wins...unless you count Stephen Colbert's ending...but he's still on for another year to torch MAGA.  

 

Yes, he's pushed through a ton of stuff, cancelled a ton of stuff, but not that many actual clear-cut victories.

• War in Middle East is still raging with massive starvation now.
• Putin keeps getting Trump to pull his finger and Trump keeps falling for it.
• Tariff deals are coming out about as slow as Heinz Ketchup.
• Epstein relationship keeps popping up.
• Hunter Biden, what a twat, keeps giving Trump and Melania the finger...hopefully Trump actually imprisons him!
• Obama is still widely respected even if his picture has been moved at the White House.
• Most countries around the world under tariffs are making deals elsewhere and for the most part, patiently waiting out for TACO.
• DOGE was a bust.
• Courts are still weighing in on tariffs.
• Cities and many states continue fighting MAGA policies.
• Powell keeps defying Trump's wishes for massive rate cuts.
• Inflation and unemployment still not moving in the right direction.

So, while he's been very busy, the outcomes success rate is somewhere around 25% so far.  Cheers!

Sanjeev, that is one of the funniest posts I have ever read from you.  

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, dwy000 said:

This is very standard for NYC.  Every 3rd or 4th mayor they go extreme. Ed Koch, David Dinkins.  And then they swing back the other way.  The overswing in both directions is the natural course of politics at most levels. 

Who was the last socialist mayor?

[dealraker]

45 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Sanjeev, that is one of the funniest posts I have ever read from you.  

Actually Viking and Parsad have introduced calm logic into the discussion...as has been the norm for more than a decade as per my reading.

 

[73 Reds]

8 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Actually Viking and Parsad have introduced calm logic into the discussion...as has been the norm for more than a decade as per my reading.

 

Not arguing that point - which makes Sanjeev's post all the more amusing.

[cubsfan]

58 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Sanjeev, that is one of the funniest posts I have ever read from you.  

 

Yes, that was very clever - nice sleight of hand!

[Ghost]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

 

Guys, you have to admit, heading into 8 full months of power, other than securing the southern border and massive deportations of illegals, there hasn't been many wins...unless you count Stephen Colbert's ending...but he's still on for another year to torch MAGA.  

 

Yes, he's pushed through a ton of stuff, cancelled a ton of stuff, but not that many actual clear-cut victories.

• War in Middle East is still raging with massive starvation now.
• Putin keeps getting Trump to pull his finger and Trump keeps falling for it.
• Tariff deals are coming out about as slow as Heinz Ketchup.
• Epstein relationship keeps popping up.
• Hunter Biden, what a twat, keeps giving Trump and Melania the finger...hopefully Trump actually imprisons him!
• Obama is still widely respected even if his picture has been moved at the White House.
• Most countries around the world under tariffs are making deals elsewhere and for the most part, patiently waiting out for TACO.
• DOGE was a bust.
• Courts are still weighing in on tariffs.
• Cities and many states continue fighting MAGA policies.
• Powell keeps defying Trump's wishes for massive rate cuts.
• Inflation and unemployment still not moving in the right direction.

So, while he's been very busy, the outcomes success rate is somewhere around 25% so far.  Cheers!

 

Sanjeev,  I am not much of a Trump supporter but in a mere 8 months as you have stated. 

 

Trump secured the border

Trump has been removing illegals.

He past his big beautiful bill, (cut taxes) which as an investor we will reap the rewards for years, because all asset prices should trend up

He has finally gotten his allies to start spending on Defense.

 

I would say on some of the big pieces, Cut Taxes, Military, Secure the border, he has been doing pretty well and I don't even like Trump.   Not even Uncle Warren has a perfect batting average.

 

Since you are Canadian and likely a fan of Mark Carney, besides cutting the carbon tax, what the heck has he done?  

 

[Cigarbutt]

On 8/13/2025 at 4:47 PM, 73 Reds said:

... If we are addressing prices, some items cost more, others less.  For me personally, its somewhat of a wash; for every item that may cost more, computer/office equipment, airline travel, certain luxury items, even some real estate, (albeit in depressed areas where I like to invest) costs the same or less than it did 1 or 2 decades ago.  And certain items that cost more, such as vehicles, vacation experiences, athletic equipment, medical procedures, etc.. are of far higher quality than their equivalents 20 years ago.  So when we consider that the currency we use to measure prices has certainly decreased in value in the last 20 years, it would seem that price deflation in real (buying power) terms is the predominant trend...

What you describe has also been described by someone called Baumol ("Baumol cost disease"), it's shown in the following picture:

Based on the above, some people suggest that anything a government touches is subject to this low productivity and cost disease, with many inflationary items more than compensating huge underlying deflationary trends. One has to remember however the hidden and not so explicit cost to maintain democracry (cost to prevent drift to autocratic plutocracy). But this is a politcal discussion. 

 

But overall, on a net basis and in the aggregate, even with quality and hedonic adjustments, the CPI, as measured by your generally to be trusted institutions, has shown, in the last decades and perhaps less recently (post-Covid period) quite low inflation.

Back to your above mentioned conclusion:

"IMO deflation over the past few decades is primarily due to the efficiencies of new technologies and resulting competition."

Yes, US-based efficiencies and new technologies have contributed to the deflationary forces but, overall, have not been  determinant factors.

For example, as mentioned above by @Spekulatius, 'foreign' and especially China-based efficiencies and technologies that have been imported through the trade balance deficit, have contibuted much more to the deflationary components, especially with the exploding trade deficit with China since the WTO accords of the early 2000s.

Still, all the above comments do not even take into consideration the monetary aspects of the inflation-deflation picture. For example, even during a period of significant productivity improvements (deflationary), the 1970s saw significant episodes of inflation. Also, peri-Covid, despite an explosion of centrally-derived money supply growth, inflation growth (despite all the headlines) remained unimpressive (relatively, historical perspective).

So, the recent reversal of posture concerning global trade (global trade expected to decrease and imports of deflationary potential expected to decrease) should result in a a temporary rise in inflation but i wonder if larger forces, on a net basis, will not facilitate the visible resurgence of deflationary secular trends.

[cubsfan]

Nice clip on the outlook for tariffs and who pays:

 

 

[LC]

5 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Oh, so only when the *desired* congress/courts are making those policies that you want.  Got it.

Bummer, I estimated you as more thoughtful than coming to this conclusion. 

[LC]

20 hours ago, Sweet said:

Bernie’s a socialist with a net worth that puts in the top few % in America.  He’s a legit moron.

3M net worth is top 10%. 

Why do you think he's a moron?

[Sweet]

36 minutes ago, LC said:

3M net worth is top 10%. 

Why do you think he's a moron?

He’s top 5% at least, maybe top 2%.  Living in the richest country in the world, made most of his money by being a career politician leeching, which has been funded in a large part by the rich he seems to hate.  His policies of taxing wealth will drive the wealth creators away, and it will end up as higher taxes for the middle class.  He’s just says things which are morale without any regard to whether they will actually work.

 

Edited August 15, 2025 by Sweet

[Sweet]

3 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Sweet and LC...my wife Angela and I discuss Bernie from time to time and we have sort of right brained it to say that guys like he and Ron Paul pretty much "lived" off their obviously presidential never-to-win campaigns.  In other words isn't it likely these guys ran much of their life's expenses through their campaign funds?  Didn't both hire family within the campaigns to also live off these funds?

Ron Paul is another mad man, but at least he is running on reducing government and tax and he’s not hating on the system which has been soo good to him.  I despise the negativity about economy and the talk of a rigged system when you live in the richest country of all time.