Political Posts

[Sweet]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I actually think this is the end game. This and NSTO membership to guarantee Ukraine’s borders post war. The war would be over tomorrow if Trump agrees to this. However without  Trump or the US it can’t happen because the US effectively controls NATO. Without explicit NATO backing this is tricky because Russia is a nuclear power far in excess of what Europe can muster (essentially just the French Force de Frappe because the Uk nuclear arsenal is controlled by the US effectively).

The UK retains full operational control of its nuclear arsenal.  It doesn’t need US approval to use them.  It was stupid of the British to stop their own nuclear weapons and delivery programme in hindsight because it leaves the UK supply at the whim of the USA.
 

However, if we get into a nuclear war the French and British have enough to obliterate Russia, although Russia have enough to obliterate Europe many times over.  But if it comes to that I don’t think we will be worried about the Donbas anymore.

[changegonnacome]

17 hours ago, cubsfan said:

MAGA is ALL about taking care of the CITIZENS of our great country FIRST.

 

Well if by "first" you mean the first family taking care of stacking their banks accounts first. I guess both things can happen at once..they make personal bank AND make America great again concurrently.......but dont be confused by the order of priorities here.....its the First Family FIRST, then America First....you seem cool with that oxymoron.....I might be cool with it if I genuinely thought the second part was happening but the evidence so far is the opposite....strip away all the PR bluster that Trump is so fond of......and the economy slowed in H1 in response to Liberating Chaos Day.

 

H1 2025 growth has come in light....maybe he catches up in his next 3.5yrs.....but the reality so far is Trump's 'genius' policy moves have slowed the economy by nearly a full 1% annualized relative to sleepy Joe's economy while running the place with the same level of insane fiscal borrowing....thats kinda a toxic mix....hopefully we're in for a Trump dividend for all the tough and excellent choices he made for us....and its boomtime USA for the next 3.5yrs....facts not feelings and we'll find out for reals (unless he continues to hack away at the statistical agencies that actually report reality versus the vibe economy that Trump works in).

 

Edited August 17, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Cigarbutt]

On 8/15/2025 at 8:39 PM, Spekulatius said:

The difference between the red curves and the green one is that the red stuff are locally produced goods and services and the green ones come from foreign countries or at least have foreign competition. 
My guess is that with tariffs in place everything will look like a red curves  going forward.

...PAYING ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

If one is into directionally correct thought processes, what is happening now with tariffs as an impediment to trade, is similar to what happened during covid (covid component of trade restrictions) without the excess associated money printing. This is starting to show up in goods inflation but (even with delayed effects through input costs) will also show up more and more on the 'services' side.

@73 Reds, is there any particular reason you stopped participating in this specific inflation//deflation sub-political discussion?

[dwy000]

10 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yea totally. Another example of asking for “data” to derail and then claim victory without presenting such “data”. I know TONS of north NJ, Staten Island, NYC guinzos… and I’d be shocked if the Trump margin was “only” 12%. It’s probably closer to 70-80%, so maybe 35% margin honestly. And again I don’t give a shit on being exact, because directionally I’m correct and it leads me to be where I need to be, so wasting time citing sources or looking for data that just confirms what I already know doesn’t do shit for me. 

I dont need to present data to ask for data!  The person making the claim should be able to support the claim.  You cant prove a negative. 

 

What youre talking about is anecdotal experience and cant be extrapolated. 

 

Making unsupported statements as fact and then challenging people who question it seems to be the new go to.  If you cant waste time getting actual data that supports the statement it undermines everything that you say.  Its the difference between guesses and knowledge 

Edited August 17, 2025 by dwy000

[Gregmal]

I mean if youre a NY metro area person, saying Trump has overwhelming support amongst Italians should just kinda be common knowledge. Theres not really anything more to it than that. 

[dwy000]

Just now, Gregmal said:

I mean if youre a NY metro area person, saying Trump has overwhelming support amongst Italians should just kinda be common knowledge. Theres not really anything more to it than that. 

By the same logic if youre a NYC area person you would have thought Harris would win the election by 20 points. 

[John Hjorth]

Awesome! :

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115044736191307422 :

 

Phsysically and personally, by hand - delivered to Putin, under meeting yesterday, by FLOTUS' husband :

 

[Gregmal]

47 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

By the same logic if youre a NYC area person you would have thought Harris would win the election by 20 points. 

Well yea cuz they probably believed all those polls! You know from the gold standard journalists and propaganda outlets whom tried influencing the elections.
 

Sometimes you just have to live in the world and make observations and hey, some are good at it and some aren’t. Just like when investing, some can make quick qualitative assessments and profit off it, while others sit around and need to spend all this time mulling over copious amounts of data(oftentimes useless or unreliable data)….latter ain’t my problem. 

[dwy000]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Well yea cuz they probably believed all those polls! You know from the gold standard journalists and propaganda outlets whom tried influencing the elections.
 

Sometimes you just have to live in the world and make observations and hey, some are good at it and some aren’t. Just like when investing, some can make quick qualitative assessments and profit off it, while others sit around and need to spend all this time mulling over copious amounts of data(oftentimes useless or unreliable data)….latter ain’t my problem. 

Not because of polls because they would have been talking to people who regionally think similarly and then incorrectly assuming that applies everywhere. 

 

You can invest however youd like!  Go for it!  Hope it works great.  But youre basically saying for others reading this that any actual data and facts are secondary to observations and gut feeling. 

[whiskybravo]

10 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Not because of polls because they would have been talking to people who regionally think similarly and then incorrectly assuming that applies everywhere. 

 

You can invest however youd like!  Go for it!  Hope it works great.  But youre basically saying for others reading this that any actual data and facts are secondary to observations and gut feeling. 

You mean like your gut feeling that every 3rd of 4th mayor NYC goes extreme.  Then your cited examples were not only not extreme they served consecutively.  

 

[Gregmal]

18 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

But youre basically saying for others reading this that any actual data and facts are secondary to observations and gut feeling. 

No, not at all. Context matters. They all carry weight. Your “data” for this would be “polls” which are a laughingstock and have been for a decade plus now on anything Trump. You seem to want proof that Italian voters favor Trump. I am confident enough in this that I don’t need to waste time on it. And ultimately, should I, I’m not totally sure what it does to enrich my life anyway….

[LC]

Let's be real - Italian-Americans are a tiny portion of the US population and certainly not enough to swing anything. Tons of Italian Americans in NY state and if they all voted Trump he still would lose the state. 

Also, the cultural difference between Italian-Americans and Italians is huge. Jersey Shore vs. Italian Riviera

[Marco Van Basten]

22 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Not because of polls because they would have been talking to people who regionally think similarly and then incorrectly assuming that applies everywhere. 

 

You can invest however youd like!  Go for it!  Hope it works great.  But youre basically saying for others reading this that any actual data and facts are secondary to observations and gut feeling. 

No, but when you are basing your investing on data, you need to make sure that the data is representative of the sample that you are trying to measure.  This is both common sense and basic statistics.  Same of course for anecdotal data.  If we stick to the subject of the election, it is pretty clear that immigration causes higher rents and lower labor costs which is a disaster for low skilled workers and hence they will be against immigration no matter what their ethnic background is.   Similarly, HB-1 visas are bad for many high skilled workers.  Lastly, the reason that many highly educated people vote for policies that reduce incentives to work is because they don't understand them.  Most of them do jobs that they like, particularly college professors or actors.  If your job is a hobby, and your pay goes down 10%, well you will still do it, provided you can feed your kids.  If you are a worker in a McDonalds, then a 10% after-tax pay cut may mean that you are better off sitting on social programs.  

[dwy000]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

No, not at all. Context matters. They all carry weight. Your “data” for this would be “polls” which are a laughingstock and have been for a decade plus now on anything Trump. You seem to want proof that Italian voters favor Trump. I am confident enough in this that I don’t need to waste time on it. And ultimately, should I, I’m not totally sure what it does to enrich my life anyway….

I didnt want proof. I wanted evidence that it was even possibly the case. And mostly because I wanted the info to see about other regions I was curious about. 

 

You are confident enough about it not to waste time on it but still felt it was worth the time to weigh in on it despite not being part of the original posts?  

[dwy000]

6 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

No, but when you are basing your investing on data, you need to make sure that the data is representative of the sample that you are trying to measure.  This is both common sense and basic statistics.  Same of course for anecdotal data. 

That appears to be the exact opposite of what @Gregmal is saying

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

I didnt want proof. I wanted evidence that it was even possibly the case. And mostly because I wanted the info to see about other regions I was curious about. 

 

You are confident enough about it not to waste time on it but still felt it was worth the time to weigh in on it despite not being part of the original posts?  

Well yea because it was kind of shocking someone would even contest it. But I see now we re back to splitting hairs. You didn’t want “proof”, just “evidence”….

[dwy000]

16 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Well yea because it was kind of shocking someone would even contest it. But I see now we re back to splitting hairs. You didn’t want “proof”, just “evidence”….

Proof, evidence, whatever. Something factual underpinning it to differentiate from it being just an opinion. 

 

Why is it shocking to contest it?  According to Google there are 17.9m Americans who identify as Italian. If they were so disproportionately for Trump that would account for the entire national voting differential.  That didnt seem likely.  Hence wanting to see how different groups voted. Not shocking at all. 

Edited August 17, 2025 by dwy000

[whiskybravo]

21 minutes ago, LC said:

Let's be real - Italian-Americans are a tiny portion of the US population and certainly not enough to swing anything. Tons of Italian Americans in NY state and if they all voted Trump he still would lose the state. 

This is true.  I brought it up only to show how surprised Italian Italians are when they hear Trump is popular with a majority of Italian Americans.  OP jumped on that like a cat on a laser pointer.  
 

[whiskybravo]

16 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Proof, evidence, whatever. Something factual underpinning it to differentiate from it being just an opinion. 

Koch, Dinkins….tapping foot

[whiskybravo]

22 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

According to Google there are 17.9m Americans who identify as Italian. If they were so disproportionately for Trump that would account for the entire national voting differential.  That didnt seem likely.  

Why? Support with data.

[dwy000]

5 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

Koch, Dinkins….tapping foot

Yes.  And DiBlasio. Even Bloomberg could be considered far left leaning but he's a billionaire so its looked at differently.  The point is it swings both ways over time - just like with presidents. Are there back to backs?  Sure.  Just like there are single termers. The point is the pendulum swings back and forth.  Whether the next one is good or bad, New York will survive.and he will be gone. 

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, whiskybravo said:

Why? Support with data.

Its literally in the post.  According to Google.

[Sweet]

35 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Proof, evidence, whatever. Something factual underpinning it to differentiate from it being just an opinion. 

 

Why is it shocking to contest it?  According to Google there are 17.9m Americans who identify as Italian. If they were so disproportionately for Trump that would account for the entire national voting differential.  That didnt seem likely.  Hence wanting to see how different groups voted. Not shocking at all. 

You are assuming all the non-Italian vote is 50-50

[whiskybravo]

12 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Yes.  And DiBlasio. Even Bloomberg could be considered far left leaning but he's a billionaire so it’s looked at differently.  The point is it swings both ways over time - just like with presidents. Are there back to backs?  Sure.  Just like there are single termers. The point is the pendulum swings back and forth.  Whether the next one is good or bad, New York will survive.and he will be gone. 

That’s a relief Mamdani will be no worse than Koch or Bloomberg.

[dwy000]

3 minutes ago, Sweet said:

You are assuming all the non-Italian vote is 50-50

I was hoping not to assume anything. Thats what the numbers would imply though if the Italian vote was so disproportionately one directional.