Political Posts

[whiskybravo]

4 hours ago, dealraker said:

 

Choosing who to read as to COBF has been the best decision I've made.  The posters who dominated the climate, their hyper-sensitive grievance rage, on COBF well over a decade ago still dominate today...or at least did a couple of months ago when I read the last of those posts.  My view is the attempts of these posters towards macho alpha presentation is actually a fragile frailness and wide open obvious panic when anyone disagrees with them.  What I still read today, but will gradually work on avoiding, is the endless responses to those posts.  

 

The video of Charlie Munger discussing Donald Trump is simply my view, nothing more and nothing less.  DJT's incredible talent at gaining attention is a net negative to business and investing leading to a sad and awful decade plus of wasted world energy and focus.  It matters little what someone's goal is when that person has no skills towards attaining that goal and surrounds himself with even more inferior helpers.

 

Most days of the week I leave my home to engage in volunteer work.  What do I encounter?  I exist in a world of people with mostly similar views, that others are the problem...that government is the problem...that Trump and only Trump can fix it.  Yes I live in what is described as the most Trump support area of the US of A.  But I also see an incredible dependence of these people upon the very government they claim to dislike.  As I've said before, it is believed that Trump will greatly harm others while helping "us".   That's without a doubt the most generalized irrational thinking in my lifetime.

 

 

 

 

 

 

People like us have seen our net worth cruise higher over the last few decades, while the people you are describing haven’t done so well.  Maybe be the government representative from FEMA even bypassed their flood damaged home.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Funny how the video of Bill Maher explaining how his time with Trump went got no response.

 

No one wants to risk their assumptions?

 

It seems possible Trump's puffery and vainglory is mostly an act.

 

(Not that choosing to act that way isn't damning as well, but it's very different.)

 

From the comments, someone related that Trump has said he learned The Apprentice's ratings only improved when he played an asshole.

 

Maybe that was the wrong lesson. Maybe not.

I watched the video.  I could give a crap what he is like in private.  He doesn’t govern that way.  Although my opinion is mostly invalid since I’m not American - although many close to me are.

 

Edited April 16, 2025 by Sweet

[Viking]

Well, this is certainly not going well for anybody - poor, rich, American, non-American. Extreme volatility in financial markets is NEVER a good sign. If it continues something will break. This science experiment is quickly going from bad to worse - the US is starting to learn that moving to a centrally planned economy can be a bitch (it doesn’t work). The problem is how do you put out a fire when you put the arsonist in control? The answer, of course, is you can’t. Once it gets raging, it will probably need to burn itself out (the MAGA crowd is acting like dry kindling). Just ask Jasper, Alberta how well that goes. What a crazy set-up. This shit show is going to make poor American’s better off? Does anyone seriously believe that anymore? Strap in boys and girls, this ride is just getting started. Unbelievable.

 

We are living in one of those times that people will talk about in decades to come. They will be asking a simple question ‘what were they thinking?’ 
 

PS: This is not to suggest that there were not serious issues that needed to be addressed. But throwing the baby out with the bathwater is idiotic. And that is what we are slowly learning. 

Edited April 16, 2025 by Viking

[73 Reds]

27 minutes ago, Viking said:

Well, this is certainly not going well for anybody - poor, rich, American, non-American. Extreme volatility in financial markets is NEVER a good sign. If it continues something will break. This science experiment is quickly going from bad to worse - the US is starting to learn that moving to a centrally planned economy can be a bitch (it doesn’t work). The problem is how do you put out a fire when you put the arsonist in control? The answer, of course, is you can’t. Once it gets raging, it will probably need to burn itself out (the MAGA crowd is acting like dry kindling). Just ask Jasper, Alberta how well that goes. What a crazy set-up. This shit show is going to make poor American’s better off? Does anyone seriously believe that anymore? Strap in boys and girls, this ride is just getting started. Unbelievable.

 

We are living in one of those times that people will talk about in decades to come. They will be asking a simple question ‘what were they thinking?’ 
 

PS: This is not to suggest that there were not serious issues that needed to be addressed. But throwing the baby out with the bathwater is idiotic. And that is what we are slowly learning. 

@Viking curious, does any of that change your opinion about Fairfax in any way?

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [April 16^th 2025] : Russia Asks to Buy Boeing Jets With Frozen Funds in US Talks.

 

One got to get kidding me ! : Where are the frozen financial assets primarily located : In Europe. Not for Trump in any way to decide, or to use in any way as negotiation leverage.

 

Putin play book 1-0-1.

[Castanza]

 

How I plan to ride this one out....Great day to be alive either way!

[Viking]

45 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@Viking curious, does any of that change your opinion about Fairfax in any way?

 

@73 Reds , my view is the tail risks to lots of things are getting wider. It doesn't mean bad things are going to happen... it just means the risks of bad things happening are increasing. My solution, as I have said before, is to increase my cash weighting. 

 

Fairfax is the only single stock I hold today. I continue to think they are well positioned in the current environment. For Fairfax, some of the tailwinds / headwinds are shifting. I have posted on Orla Mining recent... the market value of Fairfax's position is up about $550 million YTD 2025 - that is a clear tailwind. The cratering of the US$ is also an emerging tailwind for Fairfax (book value more than earnings), likely in the hundreds of millions (rough guess). So I will continue to monitor things.

 

Today my portfolio is about 33% cash, 33% Fairfax and 33% broad based index/ETF's (largest weighting XEQT). I consider Fairfax to be a pretty defensive holding. So about 33% of my portfolio is directly exposed to equity markets. My total return in 2025 is about 1% as of today. I consider myself lucky to have escaped most of the carnage so far (thank you cash and Fairfax).

 

There are times when preservation of capital is more important than return on capital (look at the 1970 to 1975 period). I think we might be in one of those times. Having said all that, if equity markets continue to sell off I likely will buy equities. I am not a permanent bear. I am just trying to be rational and navigate my family's finances through the rapids. Like I have said many times before, I do not need any more money. My primary risk is me - that I do something stupid that blows up my portfolio. Like underestimating the damage that Trump might do to the global/Canadian economy and financial markets. If something bad happens, that will be on me - not Trump or any of his policies. I take responsibility for my situation - I am not a victim. (Perhaps that is why I keep writing the same stuff on Trump - it is intended as a warning to me and what I might be inclined to do in more normal times.) 

----------

Life stage is an important overlay. If I was younger (with a day job and owning a primary residence), I would likely be leaning out more on the risk spectrum.  

Edited April 16, 2025 by Viking

[Viking]

22 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

How I plan to ride this one out....Great day to be alive either way!

 

@Castanza , good for you. Love it. We all need to find out 'happy place.' Having a 33% cash weighting allows me to do the same thing. Cheers!

Edited April 16, 2025 by Viking

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

@73 Reds , my view is the tail risks to lots of things are getting wider. It doesn't mean bad things are going to happen... it just means the risks of bad things happening are increasing. My solution, as I have said before, is to increase my cash weighting. 

 

Fairfax is the only single stock I hold today. I continue to think they are well positioned in the current environment. For Fairfax, some of the tailwinds / headwinds are shifting. I have posted on Orla Mining recent... the market value of Fairfax's position is up about $550 million YTD 2025 - that is a clear tailwind. The cratering of the US$ is also an emerging tailwind for Fairfax (book value more than earnings), likely in the hundreds of millions (rough guess). So I will continue to monitor things.

 

Today my portfolio is about 33% cash, 33% Fairfax and 33% broad based index/ETF's (largest weighting XEQT). I consider Fairfax to be a pretty defensive holding. So about 33% of my portfolio is directly exposed to equity markets. 

 

There are times when preservation of capital is more important than return on capital (look at the 1970 to 1975 period). I think we might be in one of those times. Having said all that, if equity markets continue to sell off I likely will buy equities. I am not a permanent bear. I am just trying to be rational and navigate my family's finances through the rapids. Like I have said many times before, I do not need any more money. My primary risk is me - that I do something stupid that blows up my portfolio. Like underestimating the damage that Trump might do to the global economy and financial markets. If something bad happens, that will be on me - not Trump or any of his policies. I take responsibility for my situation - I am not a victim. (Perhaps that is why I keep writing the same stuff on Trump - it is intended as a warning to me and what I might do.) 

@Viking thanks for the candid reply.  We all should invest based on our own perceptions of what affects our investments.  We all (myself included) post and react to tiny snippets in the form of posts of what is undoubtedly a much more expansive view of each poster on such issues.  Personally, I have not, and don't plan to change anything based on what has thus far transpired.  My outlook is considerably more optimistic than yours, particularly in the long term which is what drives anything I own for investment purposes.  But like you, I believe there will be some excellent opportunities to deploy capital at much better prices in the near term.  A balanced approach seems quite sensible. 

[Viking]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

@Viking thanks for the candid reply.  We all should invest based on our own perceptions of what affects our investments.  We all (myself included) post and react to tiny snippets in the form of posts of what is undoubtedly a much more expansive view of each poster on such issues.  Personally, I have not, and don't plan to change anything based on what has thus far transpired.  My outlook is considerably more optimistic than yours, particularly in the long term which is what drives anything I own for investment purposes.  But like you, I believe there will be some excellent opportunities to deploy capital at much better prices in the near term.  A balanced approach seems quite sensible. 

 

+1. @73 Reds , I have always enjoyed our interactions. I respect your approach a great deal. When I post, sometimes I am talking about a topic. Other times I am talking to myself. Sometimes both. Board members need to keep this in mind  

[Sweet]

Morgan Stanley predictions about the hit to predictions

 

 

Edited April 16, 2025 by Sweet

[Xerxes]

9 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Sweet,

 

I'm really sorry, if I above offended you. In that was the case, I sincerely apologize.

 

However the nosy part of me has to ask :

 

What is [English minus British]? I'm not sure if the answer to this question is 'Irish' or 'Scottish' 

Or Welsh !  

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Bloomberg - Politics [April 16^th 2025] : Russia Asks to Buy Boeing Jets With Frozen Funds in US Talks.

 

One got to get kidding me ! : Where are the frozen financial assets primarily located : In Europe. Not for Trump in any way to decide, or to use in any way as negotiation leverage.

 

Putin play book 1-0-1.

Putin is clever.  

[Blugolds]

10 hours ago, Sweet said:

Putin is clever.  

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take lol. Buy planes with frozen funds, then sell them to China. Money laundered.

Edited April 17, 2025 by Blugolds

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Morgan Stanley predictions about the hit to predictions

 

 

I guess even if you pass along every dollar of tariff it hits your EBIT margin. Wouldn't impact your $'s of EBIT but the margins will decline.

 

I'm not convinced they will eat any of the costs.  Why would you?  

[John Hjorth]

44 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Or Welsh !  

 

How on Earth did you figure out that @Sweets private message to me was about that?

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Funny how the video of Bill Maher explaining how his time with Trump went got no response.

 

No one wants to risk their assumptions?

 

It seems possible Trump's puffery and vainglory is mostly an act.

 

(Not that choosing to act that way isn't damning as well, but it's very different.)

 

From the comments, someone related that Trump has said he learned The Apprentice's ratings only improved when he played an asshole.

 

Maybe that was the wrong lesson. Maybe not.

 

It's not a show...look at what he's doing to the U.S. universities right now because he disagrees with their right to freedom of speech.  U.S. universities are some of the best in the world...he's going to hobble them because he doesn't like what some of the administration allows on campus.  This is petty...stupid...him just being an asshole!  No longer playing the asshole, but really being one at the expense of others.  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

51 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Putin is clever.  

 

What do you really mean by posting 'Putin is clever.'?

 

What's about the future of frozen Russian assets in Europe isen't for POTUS to decide.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

How on Earth did you figure out that @Sweets private message to me was about that?

 

well. 
I just did the math 
 

Welsh + English + Scottish + Northern Ireland = UK

 

Welsh + English + Scottish = Great Britain  

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

It's not a show...look at what he's doing to the U.S. universities right now because he disagrees with their right to freedom of speech.  U.S. universities are some of the best in the world...he's going to hobble them because he doesn't like what some of the administration allows on campus.  This is petty...stupid...him just being an asshole!  No longer playing the asshole, but really being one at the expense of others.  Cheers!

 

He's going to hobble them because they are supporting anti-semitic violence and will not protect Jewish students.

 

He's absolutely doing the right thing.

[james22]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

It's not a show...look at what he's doing to the U.S. universities right now because he disagrees with their right to freedom of speech. 

 

Sure, let's.

 

How does a demand that Harvard end its racial discrimination violate the college’s First Amendment rights?

 

https://donsurber.substack.com/p/harvard-welfare-queen

[dwy000]

46 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

He's going to hobble them because they are supporting anti-semitic violence and will not protect Jewish students.

 

He's absolutely doing the right thing.

Is it grape or cherry Kool Aid?

[Jaygo]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

There are times when preservation of capital is more important than return on capital (look at the 1970 to 1975 period)

 

Hey Viking. Would you elaborate a bit please. Do you see similarities?

[cwericb]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

Is it grape or cherry Kool Aid?

Doesn't care, all tastes good and just keeps sluggin' it down! Whatever you say Mr Trump! 

 

Seriously Cubs there must be things Trump is doing that you disagree with, could you list some? Or is everything he's doing just fine with you?

[LC]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

He's going to hobble them because they are supporting anti-semitic violence and will not protect Jewish students.

 

He's absolutely doing the right thing.

 

Nah, I think it's because they don't bend the knee, among other reasons that have nothing to do with Jews. Otherwise, why did Trump pardon this guy:

 

https://preview.redd.it/n0v0rcpw97ve1.png?auto=webp&s=bc0e7235a7e223a695c011079eca84022c54ad6e

Edited April 17, 2025 by LC