Political Posts

[Sweet]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

No comment:

 

I see this a lot, there are still quite a number of people who think they would be better off working a manufacturing job.  Not everyone is going to want to work in manufacturing, or would benefit from working at a factory, but some clearly are OK with it.  More than I expected to be honest - over 20%

[Sweet]

6 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

In context, it is clear Trump thinks that Biden and Zelensky let the war happen, obviously not that Zelensky actively started it.

A few minutes before he said:

 

“That’s a war that never should’ve been allowed to happen, and Biden could’ve stopped it, and Zelensky could’ve stopped it, and Putin never should’ve started it.”

 

That’s generous.

 

How do you stop a war from happening if the other side is intent on having a war.  Just cave in all their demands?

 

Putin started it - correct.  Zelenskyy did not, so why does he keep saying that?

[Luke]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Because people actually have to work on factory  floors. Some jobs in manufacturing are more like service jobs. These are the supply chain guys, admins, HR etc. They never see the factory.

 

But many jobs are actually factory floors jobs. This includes engineers too. Ever worked 8 hours straight in a clean room? I have. Can’t wear make up or have long fingernails (those will punch through gloves) which already kills the job for 1/3 of the women at least from the get go.

I run equipment myself (to troubleshoot processes and issues. You need to walk the floor because not all the date gets to your Remote Desktop.Some work is off shift too, because factories run 2 shifts and sometimes 3 so you get off hour issues.

 

Nit that many people want these jobs because manufacturing jobs actually don’t pay that well, Even for factory operators/ workers with some skills can often find easier strive jobs for the same money because the gap between manufacturing  jobs and service jobs has closed significantly the last few years.   Heck out what a manufacturing associate makes- quick google search ~$20/ h give or take. My son made more than that jobbing at restaurant in his last year in high school. He made almost as much jobbing in our local supermarket. These jobs are also much easier.

 

I have seen quite a few manufacturing tech leave for service jobs for the same or more money, sometimes  times working at restaurants, retail, state jobs (much better benefits) and what not.

 

This is not the fifties or 60’s anymore where manufacturing jobs paid much better then service jobs. That story was over 25 years ago and even more so since COVID-19 which lead to a huge bump in lay for service jobs but not for manufacturing jobs. people really don’t want these jobs any more and companies have trouble filling them, Maybe if they pay much more than they do now, but I do not see this happening.

The problem is that the MAGA base consists of people who have the feeling they have been left behind, economically, politically, etc.

 

Trump promised them the promised land, more money, nicer jobs, more prosperity for America, fewer drug addicts, safer cities, no more wars internationally, etc.

 

The reality is that the US can not provide these jobs to MAGA voters as you said well. Basic manufacturing jobs pay nothing, high end manufacturing pay more but are sweaty hard work and need highly qualified labor which most MAGA voters are not, also due to limited access to affordable higher education.

 

The United states control an insane amount of wealth, particularly via their international megacaps and largecap companies that have wide moats and operate globally. Now in the 21 century these companies simply can not provide that many jobs to the population anymore and in the future they will be even able to offer less of these jobs because of AI and automatization.

 

There will be few people who get paid handsomely and there will be few money for people who work in the service sector, have access to populist and easily get angry seeing how much wealth is created and how little share they have.

 

The only real solution is to accept the fact that there will be less jobs and more concentrated wealth and that this wealth needs to be redistributed in form of infrastructure investment that is free for the population (free trains, free healthcare, free musuem, free art etc) so everyone in the population has the feeling of progress and general increasing living standards even though jobs become less. Probably some sort of basic income also has to come at some point.

 

Trump unfortunately lives in the 1950s and thinks he can go back to a fordist production mode where indeed, via unions, people earned a good living. That time is gone and it is fleeing with every second of AI investment.

 

If id be president of the US, id continue the globalist modus operandi, strengthen the companies that are superb in the US so the US benefits of their cashflows and taxes, start a big infrastructure program where especially poorer rust belt cities feel an effect of progress although they can not provide towards the high tech economy, solve the drug crisis etc by providing more safety net, cohesion in the population and collectivist living where people have a place of belonging again no matter their job status.

Edited April 15, 2025 by Luke

[Sinbius]

China has stopped exporting rare earths to everyone, not just the U.S. 

 

that's why Trump wants Greenland and "peace" between Russia and Ukraine I guess....

Edited April 15, 2025 by Sinbius

[Luke]

There needs to be a cultural revolution to conquer the division, i also agree with many ideological points of the republicans where some sort of woke ideaology isolted the large part of the population. A new balance needs to be found, people need to feel safe again, have the feeling that life gets better for everyone and their kids no matter what. They need to do progressive economic interventions where universities become more accessable for everyone, have meritocratic regulation where kids get access to educational support no matter their parents pockets so people get to the top with merit and not due to connections or money. Once merit counts again, people will have the feeling of justice and can accept if someone has more money than them too.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

I see this a lot, there are still quite a number of people who think they would be better off working a manufacturing job.  Not everyone is going to want to work in manufacturing, or would benefit from working at a factory, but some clearly are OK with it.  More than I expected to be honest - over 20%

There is more opportunity to learn skills in manufacturing than in retail but it depends on the specific situation. In many manufacturing business, there isn’t much skill development either. A motivated and smart individual can find opportunities everywhere.

 

I ran a search for manufacturing  jobs in my area and Raytheon for example pays $19.5 for a manufacturing associate , which is more or less an entry level job, requiring high school degree only. In realty , people with high school degrees often can’t do simple math and can barely read, so more often than not, those  positions get filled with either people who have some college (and then quit) or have a prior job in a similar field.

 

Those jobs require an US passport, which means that it’s related to military business (otherwise, US person would be sufficient).

[Spekulatius]

54 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

China has stopped exporting rare earths to everyone, not just the U.S. 

 

that's why Trump wants Greenland and "peace" between Russia and Ukraine I guess....

Neither of these solve the rare earth issue.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

That’s generous.

 

How do you stop a war from happening if the other side is intent on having a war.  Just cave in all their demands?

 

Putin started it - correct.  Zelenskyy did not, so why does he keep saying that?

Because Trump thinks that appeasing Russia allows him to make a deal.

 

Making a deal appears to be a goal in itself for Trump, regardless of the outcome or result.

[Cigarbutt]

9 hours ago, alpha said:

 

There could be some significant tax changes coming for Canadian investors, it's hard to believe this is getting any traction from Republicans.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-proposed-republican-tax-change-would-lead-to-spike-in-costs-for/

This is like some kind of tax on foreign capital...

i guess it would work to reduce the inflow of foreign capital into the US and so help the trade deficit...

It's just interesting  that the end result would not be increased domestic production but decreased domestic consumption..

[Sinbius]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Neither of these solve the rare earth issue.

 

Hi,

 

thank you for your comment.

If you have some article or info to point me in the right direction to dig a bit out of curiosity I will really appreciate.

Edited April 15, 2025 by Sinbius

[mattee2264]

As I understand China have a massive head start in rare earths because while America was sleeping they were rapidly moving up the development chain. 

 

So it is actually hilarious that the MAGA dream is to onshore low cost low skill manufacturing and plays right into China's hands.

 

The whole problem is that right now no one has any incentive to make multi-year (or more like multi-decade) investments in industrial capacity when there is zero clarity over what level of protection will be provided by the US government or how long it will last for. 

 

Trump meanwhile tries to justify pauses as required to give American industry more time to build up capacity/capabilities to replace foreign imports.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

28 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

 

Hi,

 

thank you for your comment.

If you have some article or info to point me in the right direction to dig a bit out of curiosity I will really appreciate.

The key to rare earth is not so much mining, it’s processing. Thats all you need to know about rare earth.

 

I think rare earth Export controls are an Ace card that the Chinese kept in their sleeve for a time they need it and that time is now. 
 

It will be very clear in the next few month that the West doesn’t really have a solution , so I expect shortages.

 

I also think that the Chinese will use export of their rare earth as a tool to incentivize trade cooperation for selective countries- at least that’s what I would do if I were in their shoes.

Edited April 15, 2025 by Spekulatius

[whiskybravo]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

No comment:

 

What we don’t see in this graphic is that 2% of Americans currently work in a factory.  That 25% feel they would be better off if they worked in a factory represents quite a lot of demand for this type of work.

 

25% of the 160 million workforce would be 40 million.  At its peak the U.S. never even had 20 million working in the manufacturing sector.

 

https://open.substack.com/pub/understandingamerica/p/youre-so-vain-you-probably-think?r=9iue0&utm_medium=ios

[Sinbius]

14 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The key to rare earth is not so much mining, it’s processing. Thats all you need to know about rare earth.

Thank you...great input....looking at it...

[Spooky]

18 hours ago, Ulti said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-memo-by-howard-marks/id1521551570?i=1000702912353
 

don’t know if this is a repost… I’ve always enjoyed reading Marks thoughts 

 

Thought the memo by Howard was excellent. The example about Japanese companies getting the edge in auto manufacturing but the US economy growing significantly more rapidly was interesting. Also, he is right about the behaviour of the U.S. in the post-World War II period as “generosity toward the rest of the world stemming from enlightened self-interest".

[John Hjorth]

11 hours ago, alpha said:

There could be some significant tax changes coming for Canadian investors, it's hard to believe this is getting any traction from Republicans.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-proposed-republican-tax-change-would-lead-to-spike-in-costs-for/

 

1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:

This is like some kind of tax on foreign capital...

i guess it would work to reduce the inflow of foreign capital into the US and so help the trade deficit...

It's just interesting  that the end result would not be increased domestic production but decreased domestic consumption..

 

@alpha and Carl [ @Cigarbutt ],

 

From the Globe and Mail aticle mentioned by @alpha :

 

Quote

... Typically, non-U.S. residents are subject to a 30-per-cent withholding tax on U.S. dividends. Currently, under the Canada-U.S. tax treaty, Canadians receive a reduced tax rate of 15 per cent.

 

To receive that rate, investors must submit a tax form through their financial institution. In some instances, investors may be provided a foreign tax credit.

 

But under the proposed draft legislation – known as H.R. 591 – Canadian investors could be now be denied the reduction and required to pay the higher 30-per-cent rate. Investors would also be subject to the additional 20-percentage-point rate hike, bringing their withholding tax rate to 50 per cent. ...

 

It may read as if there in some kind of conflict between Canadian-American tax treaty and this draft legislation H. R. 591, which Canada can invoke in some international court if it comes to so. However that is not the case. Bilateral tax treaties among countries allocate and divide the right to tax a given income stream between two countries, who are in conflict about both countries according to their local tax code should have the privilege and right to tax. So such tax treaties can only reduce already existing taxes. So Canada has no power to counter H. R. 591 as such, other than terminating - if possible - the tax treaty and renegotiate it - again, if possible.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Christ, what a mess ... -And who may eventually be next Canada? [Note to self : Remember own BN.US shares -> BN.TO shares!]

Edited April 15, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Spooky]

45 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

@alpha and Carl [ @Cigarbutt ],

 

From the Globe and Mail aticle mentioned by @alpha :

 

 

It may read as if there in some kind of conflict between Canadian-American tax treaty and this draft legislation H. R. 591, which Canada can invoke in some international court if it comes to so. However that is not the case. Bilateral tax treaties among countries allocate and divide the right to tax a given income stream between two countries, who are in conflict about both countries according to their local tax code should have the privilege and right to tax. So such tax treaties can only reduce already existing taxes. So Canada has no power to counter H. R. 591 as such, other than terminating - if possible - the tax treaty and renegotiate it - again, if possible.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Christ, what a mess ... -And who may eventually next Canada? [Note to self : Remember own BN.US shares -> BN.TO shares!]

 

Thanks for sharing... hopefully they don't go this route. Another factor pointing to a lower allocation to US equities.

[Intelligent_Investor]

4 hours ago, Luke said:

There needs to be a cultural revolution to conquer the division, i also agree with many ideological points of the republicans where some sort of woke ideaology isolted the large part of the population. A new balance needs to be found, people need to feel safe again, have the feeling that life gets better for everyone and their kids no matter what. They need to do progressive economic interventions where universities become more accessable for everyone, have meritocratic regulation where kids get access to educational support no matter their parents pockets so people get to the top with merit and not due to connections or money. Once merit counts again, people will have the feeling of justice and can accept if someone has more money than them too.

Most in America don't want a meritocracy because it isn't "fair" that someone can be more successful. What most Americans want is high living standards without needing to work hard for it because "this is America". Until those underlying attitudes are changed, America is going to continue to struggle.

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Most in America don't want a meritocracy because it isn't "fair" that someone can be more successful. What most Americans want is high living standards without needing to work hard for it because "this is America". Until those underlying attitudes are changed, America is going to continue to struggle.

I think once you can only make it to the top with hard work and skill, people accept that they dont have the same standard of living. What makes people angry if they get the feeling that someone is at the top without having deserved it.

 

You know, people winning the nobel price and 1m USD for bringing new research results that change the world i think most people will say yeah, they deserve that. You also need to set things in perspective again, its just ludicrous how large the salaries are for some managers compared to what the worker makes. Sure, theres gotta be a difference but in so many economic and political areas things are out of order and need rebalancing.

 

Life feels fundamentally unfair in the west and that feeling got a lot stronger over the last 60 years. Sure, some make good money etc and benefit but the large trend is a feeling of "things are fucked up", the government is crooked and the future isnt looking bright.

 

Trump stood for change and promised land, so far i only see disaster, no war solution, no real change.

 

"Change" thats what obama promised, it was not enough change. People want to really feel an impact.

 

I think the next decades or so have way higher risks for fascism to rise because the more things go out of order, the more difficult it is to adjust via parliamentaryy processes. Thats a feeling that was very much alive in the 1920 in germany and gave rise to hitler.

[Luke]

And the feeling of "life is unfair" is tolerable when you feel like things improve. Look at someone in China who was alive in 1995. He had the experience that life got immensely better over time thanks to their government and therefore has a much better outlook.

 

Look at someone who worked in a coal mine in red states in 1995. That person now votes for Trump.

 

Thats what democrats and the central parties didnt manage, provide prosperity and continuous progress.

 

Unfortunately very few got very wealthy, the top 10% to which most on this board count including me are also moderately satisfied but all the workers and citizens below the median in the west are angry, frustrated. Loss of safety, loss of reliance on public transport, health insurance unaffordable and no appointments, wars, inflation, ignorant and partially even stupid leaders that have no knowledge and would not have made it anywhere...

 

Tough nut to crack, i personally hope that those few really smart guys with broad education background somehow make it into politics, maybe via new parties and then achieve some change.

 

change surely wont come via the old structures that can be bought and are dysfunctional.

[Luke]

The tariff phenomenon is an example of how someone with complete ignorance towards economic 101 can make it to the most powerful job in the world. Trump should be some sort of philosopher with deep knowledge of philosophy, politics, economics, psychology etc and have shown over his biography that he is a reliant, diligent and hard working citizen that can bring his country and humanity forward. But he is nothing of that, he had a lot of money and rich donors and appealed to the disenfranchised. He threw the right buzzwords around that people wanted to hear and miraculously made it into office twice. He also has decent rethorics and can bully people while appearing strong to the majority of the crowd.

 

Really a tragic situation the world is in right now.

 

If id had to bet, i think the future leadership will come from china and the CCP. I think they have set themselves up in a bit better position, arguably not perfect but their cards are just a bit better than the US now.

 

 

[james22]

3 minutes ago, Luke said:

The tariff phenomenon is an example of how someone with complete ignorance towards economic 101 can make it to the most powerful job in the world.

 

Ever run a business, Luke?

 

Held an elected leadership role?

 

Negotiated for anything of value?

 

You must at least be in management, surely?

[formthirteen]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

No comment:

 

https://www.figure.ai/

 

Quote

Today, we are seeing unprecedented labor shortages. There are over 10 million unsafe or undesirable jobs in the U.S. alone, and an aging population will only make it increasingly difficult for companies to scale their workforces. As a result, the labor supply growth is set to flatline this century. If we want continued growth, we need more productivity — and this means more automation.

 

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Ever run a business, Luke?

 

Held an elected leadership role?

 

Negotiated for anything of value?

 

You must at least be in management, surely?

Yup. But this is what 95% of cobf has become the past couple months. Absolutely worthless, emotional raging and whining mixed with derangement inspired doom and gloom. Ugh…..

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000703567582
 

Javier Blas … commodities reporter from Bloomberg… Sounds like the rare earth metal ban is a big nothing burger… Kinda like all that critical/ rare metals stuff from Ukraine and Greenland that he’s talked about