Political Posts

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

If you yourself in the shoes of a businessman l you would think the world has gone nuts. There is no way to predict  anything due to the haphazard way of the administration doing things. So the best option is to hunker down and if this is what is collectively is occurring we are looking at a severe recession.

 

Take the recent U- turn roe semiconductor or electronics imports from China. While this fine for Dell and Apple for the time being, if you are an US business that actually assembles components and produces computers, you are absolutely getting screwed here . Why - because your components gets tariff taxed, while the finished goods from Dell or Apple get zero tariffs. No way you can stay in business like that.. This is just a  microcosm what it happening all over the place.

 

About 40% of the exports from China are components that got used for finished goods. These components  gets tariff taxed tariff taxes by 145% now. Some of those compete with competitors from other countries which may get lower tariffs. Even if not, exporting these out from the US now is pretty much impossible if the bill of material  contains significant amount of good from China.

 

I think it’s preset clear that the Trump administration went into this tariff & trade war without much thinking and preparation  and now just makes up more stuff partly to reduce the damage from prior decisions.

 

Seems like “Art of the deal” versus “Art of War”. I have read both and I have a strong opinion which one is better. I think it’s possible that Xi Jinping baited Trump into raising the tariffs so high with counter tariffs that the outcome is ridiculous and very damaging.

 

The next few month will be very interesting. Put your life jacket on, or get a parachute if flying and make sure you get through the bumpy ride with little damage or even benefit from the U-turns and foibles that I think going to unfold.

Perhaps we get a de- escalation and Xi Jinping and Trump become best buddies. I don’t think that’s too likely though because a decoupling that we have seen is very hard to reverse. Same with Europe in terms of security.

Given you posted this an hour ago it's already out of date.

 

So now Trump says electronics and phones are not exempt, they are subject to 20% tariffs.  And there's more electronics tariffs coming. Hes blaming the "fake media" for reporting it wrong even though it was his messaging and his messengers!!!

 

The incompetence is just astounding!  They literally have no idea what they're doing. It's truly a clown show. 

Edited April 13, 2025 by dwy000

[Sweet]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

Given you posted this an hour ago it's already out of date.

 

So now Trump says electronics and phones are not exempt, they are subject to 20% tariffs.  And there's more electronics tariffs coming. Hes blaming the "fake media" for reporting it wrong even though it was his messaging and his messengers!!!

 

The incompetence is just astounding!  They literally have no idea what they're doing. It's truly a clown show. 

Art of the deal - apparently.

[Spekulatius]

Just now, Malmqky said:

 

Handled plenty in the past just fine.

 

1929, 2001, 2008, etc.

 

Maybe this time is different. But we've survived a civil war, two world wars, 9/11, the aforementioned recessions, etc. and have come through fine every time.

 

It pays to be an optimist, and as Buffet says, bet on America.

 

I'll continue to remain agile and invest around the macro environment. Even in recessions there's lots of money to be made.

Germany survived losing two world wars, but it wasn’t pretty and a lot of people lost everything. 1929 is not an experience I would look forward to either - 2008 was good enough for me. It took many years to come back from 2008 for many people.

 

Surviving is not thriving. i think there are times to play offensive but I think now is not such a time. Now is a time to be extremely flexible like a trader if that suits you, or play defense if this is not your cup of tea. This is particularly true if you are older and have a hard to to come back from a severe hit to your nest egg.

[mattee2264]

Yeah this isn't a hard policy pivot. Even if that is where we land up it will be a bumpy ride to that point and not without a good amount of pain. 

 

All that we really know so far is the Great Depression tariff rates were a bluff and everything is up for negotiation and a lot of volatility because at any point Trump might announce more exceptions or pauses or change the rates. Even if you anchor of the 10% universal tariff (and 20% for China) that still represents a pretty big increase compared to the status quo and is enough to have a negative impact on economic growth and inflation. 

 

Then you have the other Trump policies such as zero immigration and spending cuts which will have a negative growth impact even if it is incredibly unlikely the headline targets will be achieved. 

 

And markets are only down 5-10% from election levels with most of the decline just unwinding the post-election euphoria based on the idea that Trump would be pro-business and deregulate and cut taxes etc. 

 

Maybe AI will save the day and the resulting productivity improvements and cost savings will overwhelm any negative growth and inflation impact from Trump's policies. 

And maybe we'll get a repeat of COVID with a flight to the safety of Big Tech (especially when it becomes evident that their lobbying power will get them a lot of exceptions) rather than a flight to cash. But even before the tariff increases Mag7 were showing some vulnerabilities and if history rhymes the productivity improvements from AI technology will take more than a few years to start to become evident in the wider economy. 

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Given you posted this an hour ago it's already out of date.

 

So now Trump says electronics and phones are not exempt, they are subject to 20% tariffs.  And there's more electronics tariffs coming. Hes blaming the "fake media" for reporting it wrong even though it was his messaging and his messengers!!!

 

The incompetence is just astounding!  They literally have no idea what they're doing. It's truly a clown show. 

 

@dwy000,

 

No, that was about eight hours go.

[Paarslaars]

https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1911504476818616823

 

And down we go, BTC already leading the way.

[Ulti]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Surviving is not thriving. i think there are times to play offensive but I think now is not such a time. Now is a time to be extremely flexible like a trader if that suits you, or play defense if this is not your cup of tea. This is particularly true if you are older and have a hard to to come back from a severe hit to your nest egg.

+1 …. Too many “ rules of the road” are in flux… it will be interesting to listen / read 1q 2025 results / QandA of various businesses and how they respond in the current environment..  as an aside I’m older  with 42% cash … defense wins championships 

[Milu]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

He's definitely a white supremacist, NAZI and KKK member, all rolled in to one.

He probably hates gays and women as well. 

 

Look for him to continue supporting genocide for anyone that does not agree with him.

 

You've really nailed him.

He hates puppies too.

[Viking]

38 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Germany survived losing two world wars, but it wasn’t pretty and a lot of people lost everything. 1929 is not an experience I would look forward to either - 2008 was good enough for me. It took many years to come back from 2008 for many people.

 

Surviving is not thriving. i think there are times to play offensive but I think now is not such a time. Now is a time to be extremely flexible like a trader if that suits you, or play defense if this is not your cup of tea. This is particularly true if you are older and have a hard to to come back from a severe hit to your nest egg.

 

I have learned over the years to trust my 'spidey senses' when they start tingling. They started tingling about two months ago as we began to understand the enormity of what Trump has planned. My solution was to simply increase my allocation to cash. If I am wrong, I miss a little upside. If I am right I get to buy low (maybe crazy low). Not a complicated strategy. This is standard operating procedure for me for +20 years and it has served me well. 

 

In the current environment it is critical to have a strategy (investment framework) that fits how you are wired and your current life situation. 

 

I have enough (that 'life situation' thing). The key risk to my portfolio is I do something stupid that blows it up. That risk has nothing to do with Trump - it is all on me. My point is investors have to be rational and take responsibility for their actions and be prepared to live with the consequences of their decisions. Eyes wide open. You have done a great job of reminding board members of this basic fact/reality. 

 

There is a great deal of uncertainty in the current environment. This likely means we will see a great deal of volatility for at least the next 3.5 years. This environment is an active managers wet dream. A value investors Super Bowl. It is almost the exact opposite of the 'zero interest rate' regime that we had for +10 years. I am trying to remain inquisitive and open minded to where we go from here. Best of luck to other board members.  

Edited April 13, 2025 by Viking

[dwy000]

Customs officials wouldn't be blamed if they called in sick for the next month or two. 

 

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Germany survived losing two world wars, but it wasn’t pretty and a lot of people lost everything. 1929 is not an experience I would look forward to either - 2008 was good enough for me. It took many years to come back from 2008 for many people.

 

Surviving is not thriving. i think there are times to play offensive but I think now is not such a time. Now is a time to be extremely flexible like a trader if that suits you, or play defense if this is not your cup of tea. This is particularly true if you are older and have a hard to to come back from a severe hit to your nest egg.

Agree with this 100%…again I’m of the view that the US remains longterm and that relationships can be fluid both positive and negative. I think history shows this. 
 

But I am not in favor of these tariffs and frankly don’t know how anyone can support them at this point. 
 

I also have zero desire to live through a 1929 event. Anyone saying “we’ll survive” is ignorant about the realities of that. You have to live in the world you have.

 

What in your view is a good defensive strategy here?  

[Blake Hampton]

Interesting article in the NYT today: Bessent Takes Tricky Center Stage as Trade Wars Roil U.S. Economy - NYT

 

"The traditional gathering of former Treasury secretaries to welcome a newly minted one into the fold is usually a lighthearted and pleasant affair. But when the group convened this month, on President Trump’s “Liberation Day,” the tone was strikingly serious.

 

The dinner, organized by former Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin, took place at a moment of tumult for the U.S. economy. The president had upended global trade with punishing tariffs on both allies and adversaries, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was at the center of it, defending a policy that many in the room viewed as economic malpractice.

 

“The mood was somber,” said W. Michael Blumenthal, 99, who led the Treasury Department in the Carter administration and was in attendance.

 

Mr. Bessent was pressed over the strategy behind the tariffs and the impact that they would have on the economy, according to Mr. Blumenthal and other people familiar with the dinner. At times, Mr. Bessent elevated his voice when his predecessors confronted him about Mr. Trump’s approach.

 

“He didn’t just smile,” Mr. Blumenthal recalled. “There he is — he has to defend it.”

 

The guest list included Robert E. Rubin, Henry M. Paulson, Lawrence H. Summers, Timothy F. Geithner and Jack Lew. Former Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen was traveling in Australia and did not attend, a spokesman said."

[Blake Hampton]

Kind of weird Janet Yellen wasn't there.

[Blake Hampton]

Either Bessent is another POS, or he’s a genius trying to save the country. I haven’t figured out which yet.

[dwy000]

41 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Either Bessent is another POS, or he’s a genius trying to save the country. I haven’t figured out which yet.

Or he's a smart guy put into an impossible position of backing a policy he clearly doesn't support or believe in. 

[Junior R]

8 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Or he's a smart guy put into an impossible position of backing a policy he clearly doesn't support or believe in. 

Marc Rowan probably happy he didn't get or take the job lol

[dwy000]

10 minutes ago, Junior R said:

Marc Rowan probably happy he didn't get or take the job lol

Marc Rowan would have been excellent. But he's too smart to have taken the job without the ability to do it right 

[Fly]

25 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Or he's a smart guy put into an impossible position of backing a policy he clearly doesn't support or believe in. 

 

He knew what he was getting into... 

[Peregrine]

8 hours ago, Castanza said:

Merely a comment about disruption to the supply chains. Obviously in a different manner. From an investment angle I am trying to think about what will be more disruptive. Tariffs or Covid-19. 
 

edit: I also find it fascinating how people can hold two views that are polar opposite of each other. Globalism is in a weird place. Tariffs are bad for both the below as they create more expensive goods and punish poor nations with likely resulting in even worse working conditions. Never the less, people hold both of the below views at the same time. What is the solution? 

- Speaking out against sweat shops and poor working conditions

- While also wanting cheap goods. 
 

 

 

You seem to talk like sweat shop workers don't have a choice. Believe it or not, it's a lot better than working in 100 degree heat and humidity day and night in the rice paddies.

[Parsad]

On 4/12/2025 at 2:56 AM, Sweet said:

 

I share similarities with Hitler.  I like dogs and women, I also don’t agree with large scale immigration, or believe that all cultures or equal.  Yet I loath the Nazis and what they did.  I had a great many relatives who fought them in WW2.

This guy, the supporter of the H-1b visa programme, believes in ‘racial superiority’ apparently. Maybe of Asians given by the photo.

The largest Nationalist government in the world is in India led by Modi.  It’s Hindu nationalist and Modi believes in a country for Hindu people.  Are there similarity with some Nazi beliefs - sure.  But are Modi and Hindu Nationalists Nazis - no, because of the area were they are dissimilar matters (fascism, wars, genocide).

 

We need to stop these silly comparisons.  Not only is it unfair to Musk and many others incorrectly labelled as Nazis.  It also cheapens what the Nazis were and what they did - which was some of most despicable things ever committed by mankind.  
 

 

I didn't say they were Nazi's, so you can stop the rhetoric feigning Godwin's Law.  What I'm referring to is that there is a thin line between Nationalistic/racist tendencies and ideals that slowly permeate the psyche of people, where the horrible things Nazi's did in the early days becomes acceptable.  Not drawing the line is what allowed Hitler to take power and do the things we say were so atrocious.

 

It's become acceptable to say that immigrants today are not the same as immigrants in past decades...that they are lazy, criminals, users, etc.  I just had a conversation with one of my cousins yesterday at a children's birthday party...hardcore MAGA...that's exactly what he said!  He's fucking 1st generation born Canadian...not even 2nd or 3rd generation...1st generation!

 

If my cousin...and he isn't the only one...two my uncles and one of my best friends.  They fucking think this way now.  So Sweet, if you think this is some aberration or people are exaggerating or make false comparisons...you are so wrong!  It's why someone like Trump is in power...why he got a second term...why what he does would not have been acceptable 20 years ago, but is fully ok today.

 

It's why so many Canadians are back on their heels...Mexicans...Europeans...Asians.  Even Modi doesn't pull the shit that Trump does.  Destruction of global alliances decades in the making...ripping up existing trade deals...trade tariffs decided on a whim...unqualified people thrown into incredibly important positions...zero oversight!  Hitler wishes he had it so easy!  Cheers!   

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Germany survived losing two world wars, but it wasn’t pretty and a lot of people lost everything. 1929 is not an experience I would look forward to either - 2008 was good enough for me. It took many years to come back from 2008 for many people.

 

Surviving is not thriving. i think there are times to play offensive but I think now is not such a time. Now is a time to be extremely flexible like a trader if that suits you, or play defense if this is not your cup of tea. This is particularly true if you are older and have a hard to to come back from a severe hit to your nest egg.

 

+1!  Cheers!

[Dinar]

@Parsad, if you were to poll non-whites in the US, you would be shocked that most of them want to end immigration.  I live in NYC, so I interact with a lot of people of various nationalities, races, etc...   Every blue collar individual that I have met (drivers, doormen, handymen, barbers, nannies, construction workers, etc...) want to end immigration, and most of these people are immigrants themselves.  Their argument: immigration lowers wages, increases housing costs, and lengthens wait times in hospitals.    In addition, every time I pass free food lines near churches in Manhattan, I don't hear English.   

[dealraker]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Germany survived losing two world wars, but it wasn’t pretty and a lot of people lost everything. 1929 is not an experience I would look forward to either - 2008 was good enough for me. It took many years to come back from 2008 for many people.

 

Surviving is not thriving. i think there are times to play offensive but I think now is not such a time. Now is a time to be extremely flexible like a trader if that suits you, or play defense if this is not your cup of tea. This is particularly true if you are older and have a hard to to come back from a severe hit to your nest egg.

Yes.

[Parsad]

5 minutes ago, Dinar said:

@Parsad, if you were to poll non-whites in the US, you would be shocked that most of them want to end immigration.  I live in NYC, so I interact with a lot of people of various nationalities, races, etc...   Every blue collar individual that I have met (drivers, doormen, handymen, barbers, nannies, construction workers, etc...) want to end immigration, and most of these people are immigrants themselves.  Their argument: immigration lowers wages, increases housing costs, and lengthens wait times in hospitals.    In addition, every time I pass free food lines near churches in Manhattan, I don't hear English.   

 

I didn't say immigration wasn't a problem.  But the racist rhetoric has become acceptable in that debate...such as you just commenting "I don't hear English."  The Sikh Gurdwara near my house serves 1,000 free meals a day!  They hear everything including English!  Cheers!

[Dinar]

10 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I didn't say immigration wasn't a problem.  But the racist rhetoric has become acceptable in that debate...such as you just commenting "I don't hear English."  The Sikh Gurdwara near my house serves 1,000 free meals a day!  They hear everything including English!  Cheers!

Parsad, it is not racism, it is a fact.  We will have to agree to disagree.   I would bet you though, that immigration is very popular among rich whites who get cheap labor, and higher rents, and very unpopular among the poor minorities who suffer from higher rents, overcrowded hospitals, and lower wages.