Political Posts

[Parsad]

8 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Parsad, it is not racism, it is a fact.  We will have to agree to disagree.   I would bet you though, that immigration is very popular among rich whites who get cheap labor, and higher rents, and very unpopular among the poor minorities who suffer from higher rents, overcrowded hospitals, and lower wages.  

 

The funny thing is, the last time I was in a Trump hotel (2017 in Chicago), almost all of the staff I encountered (other than Eric Trump in the elevator) was Hispanic.  Yet, they are all criminals, murderers, thieves and gang members according to him.  It's that type of rhetoric that I'm concerned about...not that immigration is a problem...that it is contributing to problems in housing, healthcare, etc.  At the same time, there is and was a significant shortage in service workers for the last five years which drove the increased immigration quotas.  If you want your Big Mac, somebody has to make the damn thing...and most non-immigrant Americans don't want that job!  Cheers!

[Xerxes]

Musk may not be racist but am guessing (1) he is fascinated by the 1930 Germany, (2) likes the attention that salute stirred (I believe he knew what he was doing) (3) wants a cult following  (4) throwing stuff to the wall to see what sticks 

 

The salute was almost like doing a weird post on your FB profile to see who will click on “like” 
 

Everyone needs to have a tribe. In any case, looks like he needs a rebranding more than a tribe. 

———

on Nazi: contrary to the post-1945 belief, Nazi didn’t come from planter Mars in 1933 and then took off in 1945 in the same spaceship.
 

They were normal everyday white god fearing Germans, that took a different path. Some by choice, others coerced and others yet because of opportunity to get ahead in their society. 
 

Except for the hard core Nazis, and the brainwashed faithful around them, most of them were probably nice and normal people. 

[Xerxes]

Whatever happened to co-DOGE commander:   Vivek R.

 

 

I listed to the All-In podcast today with Larry Summers as the guest. It was intense. 
 

David Sacks, the Trumpist, was funny to listen to. Literally getting offended when asked for what is measure of success on the tariffs two years from now. 
 

Chamath is interesting. Very smart person and well spoken. While Sacks is a loyalist with a deep sense of oh-I-need-to-shoot-all-arguments, Chamath is more of an opportunist and Trumpist-on-contract. What is the ROIC to kiss the ring ?

Larry Summers sounds like an old knight of a bygone age. Clinging to his facts in a world where other things (like fiction) takes precedence. 
 

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2025 by Xerxes

[Sinbius]

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Put your trust in President Xi! 

 

Don't forget to thank him for unleashing a virus that killed millions worldwide.

I don't don't put my trust in Xi but for sure I would prefer to make a deal with China that with US....and looks like the other countries are coming to this conclusion....China is more reliable than US...and China is and will be more technological advanced...they work their a$$ off while US people are just eating cheesburgers... (..I suppose US can call China people peasants and EU people parasites...that they are not...but other countries can not call US people obese...which they are...)

Edited April 14, 2025 by Sinbius

[frommi]

I expect that capital will flow out of the US because of all this drama, so yields for US go up and for pretty much RoW it goes down. With the cost of capital going down, maybe europe is now the place to be for the next decade?
Point being if two parties like china and US battle, you don't want to be involved with both?

[Pauly]

7 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Kind of weird Janet Yellen wasn't there.

 

If she was in Australia, why would that be weird? She's under no obligation to fly half way around the world. I do think it's amazing that Blumenthal was there. 99 years old and he's the one giving accounts of the meeting!

[Sweet]

3 hours ago, frommi said:

I expect that capital will flow out of the US because of all this drama, so yields for US go up and for pretty much RoW it goes down. With the cost of capital going down, maybe europe is now the place to be for the next decade?
Point being if two parties like china and US battle, you don't want to be involved with both?

 

In many respects this makes sense, but does the macro change anything in Europe with regard to the stocks they have now or will have in the future?

 

America is still likely to be the engine of innovation and startups, it's not just tariffs it's culture. 

 

Being a billionaire in Europe is often looked down upon, top rate of tax in some European countries is near 55%, and capital gains tax can be as high as mid 40s.  Significantly higher than the US.

 

The tariffs themselves, they will absolutely have an effect short term, but long-term what are they likely to be - if we arrive at a 'national security' tariff situation.  Should be a lot more sensible.

 

Europe needs to make some significant changes in regulations and policy to encourage more growth and innovation.  Among which should be rewarding investors and entrepreneurs. 

[Xerxes]

12 hours ago, Castanza said:

Agree with this 100%…again I’m of the view that the US remains longterm and that relationships can be fluid both positive and negative. I think history shows this. 
 

But I am not in favor of these tariffs and frankly don’t know how anyone can support them at this point. 
 

I also have zero desire to live through a 1929 event. Anyone saying “we’ll survive” is ignorant about the realities of that. You have to live in the world you have.

 

What in your view is a good defensive strategy here?  

 

Global economies got pulled out of the Great Depression thanks to the onset of the world war …. with Germany leading the way through its massive rearmament. 
 

it is sad to think that we needed a world war to get humanity out of first gear into higher gear 

[formthirteen]

A Historical Analysis of Tariffs - Using cliometrics to understand our current situation

https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/a-historical-analysis-of-tariffs

[Dalal.Holdings]

A really amusing outcome of these Trump Tariffs is that the Europeans (and others) may be forced to implement their own Tariffs against China in response to dumping ...

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/world/europe/europe-china-dumping-tariffs.html

 

Quote

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has promised to “engage constructively” with China even as she has warned about the “indirect effects” of the American tariffs and has vowed to closely watch the flow of Chinese goods. A new task force will monitor imports for signs of dumping.

 

“We cannot absorb global overcapacity nor will we accept dumping on our market,” Ms. von der Leyen said as Mr. Trump’s tariffs went into effect.

 

[Pelagic]

Anyone have thoughts on the all out blitz across social media that Chinese luxury goods manufacturers are on? It seems there's a potential future where Trump and Xi work things out and trade between the US and China normalizes and yet luxury brands like LVMH or Hermes suffer as customers realize they can buy the same products directly from the factory that they're made in in China for a lot less. Margins on luxury goods are juicy and thinking Chinese manufacturers that do 95% or more of the assembly of them would just roll over in a trade war seems shortsighted. They're going to fight just as hard to keep their factories running as anyone in the US is and if cutting out the western companies acting as middlemen between the factory and consumers is the way to do it, then that's the path they'll take.

 

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

22 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

Anyone have thoughts on the all out blitz across social media that Chinese luxury goods manufacturers are on? It seems there's a potential future where Trump and Xi work things out and trade between the US and China normalizes and yet luxury brands like LVMH or Hermes suffer as customers realize they can buy the same products directly from the factory that they're made in in China for a lot less. Margins on luxury goods are juicy and thinking Chinese manufacturers that do 95% or more of the assembly of them would just roll over in a trade war seems shortsighted. They're going to fight just as hard to keep their factories running as anyone in the US is and if cutting out the western companies acting as middlemen between the factory and consumers is the way to do it, then that's the path they'll take.

 

I hope you'll agree with me to move this discussion to the topic in this forum called 'Luxury sector - News'. It's to me misplaced here, because US luxury isen't - it's far from - dominant in the sector.

Edited April 14, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Dinar]

44 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

Anyone have thoughts on the all out blitz across social media that Chinese luxury goods manufacturers are on? It seems there's a potential future where Trump and Xi work things out and trade between the US and China normalizes and yet luxury brands like LVMH or Hermes suffer as customers realize they can buy the same products directly from the factory that they're made in in China for a lot less. Margins on luxury goods are juicy and thinking Chinese manufacturers that do 95% or more of the assembly of them would just roll over in a trade war seems shortsighted. They're going to fight just as hard to keep their factories running as anyone in the US is and if cutting out the western companies acting as middlemen between the factory and consumers is the way to do it, then that's the path they'll take.

 

 

 

 

As far as I know, Hermes does not make it products in China.  Where do you get the information that Chinese factories make 95% of product of LVMH and Hermes?  Thank you.

[Pelagic]

10 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I hope you'll agree with me to move this discussion to the topic in this forum called 'Luxury sector - News'. It's to me misplaced here, because US luxury isen't - it's far from - dominant in the sector.

I'd disagree, while the most recent videos by Chinese manufacturers are targeting luxury goods, it's clearly a response to higher tariffs. That luxury goods have higher margins and are more susceptible doesn't mean we won't see Chinese manufacturers keep trying the same approach (if it works) with other products as well, eroding margins of western firms across the board. Westerners buying directly isn't a new thing but tariffs have incentivized Chinese firms to try new things to stay in business and take a more proactive approach to reaching customers directly. TikTok in many ways is the perfect platform for this style of targeted advertising linking young English speaking Chinese manufacturers directly with young, and impressionable, western consumers. The latter also happen to be a subset of consumers who are less concerned with IP violations or the costs that go into developing products, they see a product they know that's identical to what's on the shelves for a fraction of the price and are given a way to buy it.

 

 

[Pelagic]

6 minutes ago, Dinar said:

As far as I know, Hermes does not make it products in China.  Where do you get the information that Chinese factories make 95% of product of LVMH and Hermes?  Thank you.

Ah that's just some of the videos I've seen on tiktok and twitter, who knows their veracity - it's just a viral trend that's popped up over the weekend with Chinese manufacturers talking to western audiences.

 

One of the more popular videos, perhaps Hermes isn't in China at all and I was wrong to include them. He mentions LV, Coach, Gucci and Prada

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2025 by Pelagic

[mcliu]

I don’t know about Hermes but wasn’t there that a whole made-in#Italy scandal a while ago where the fashion houses either sourced from China and assembled in Italy or outsourced to Chinese workshops in Italy to make the products?

 

it’s not rocket science, the Chinese can probably make the same or similar product if they can source the materials.

[Red Lion]

4 minutes ago, mcliu said:

it’s not rocket science, the Chinese can probably make the same or similar product if they can source the materials.

 

They seem to be great at sourcing materials. 90% of the critical rare earth elements or something crazy like that. Worst case scenario, maybe they make a trade 

[Dinar]

9 minutes ago, mcliu said:

I don’t know about Hermes but wasn’t there that a whole made-in#Italy scandal a while ago where the fashion houses either sourced from China and assembled in Italy or outsourced to Chinese workshops in Italy to make the products?

 

it’s not rocket science, the Chinese can probably make the same or similar product if they can source the materials.

Things were made in Italy in Chinese workshops.

[james22]

Eh.

 

Watch guys know you can buy $1k Chinese "Super" replicas that are indistinguishable from Rolex, Omega, etc.

 

Hasn't changed the market other than encouraged buying from authorized dealers.

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Pelagic said:

Anyone have thoughts on the all out blitz across social media that Chinese luxury goods manufacturers are on? It seems there's a potential future where Trump and Xi work things out and trade between the US and China normalizes and yet luxury brands like LVMH or Hermes suffer as customers realize they can buy the same products directly from the factory that they're made in in China for a lot less. Margins on luxury goods are juicy and thinking Chinese manufacturers that do 95% or more of the assembly of them would just roll over in a trade war seems shortsighted. They're going to fight just as hard to keep their factories running as anyone in the US is and if cutting out the western companies acting as middlemen between the factory and consumers is the way to do it, then that's the path they'll take.

 

 

 

 

Most of the luxury brands are not being bought because of where they're made, it's all about brand and image.  Anyone thinking it costs $1000 to make a purse anywhere in the world is kidding themselves.   Those brands will never allow their products to be sold directly from Chinese factories because it diminishes the brand.  They will either be counterfeit or the brand will move their production. 

[Sweet]

 

Sigh, more lies.  

[dwy000]

Start a war??????  The man is a moron. 

[Sweet]

Just now, dwy000 said:

Start a war??????  The man is a moron. 

Yeh, it’s just ridiculous.

 

Nobody can trust this guy.

 

Not on truth telling, not on agreements he previously signed.

 

 

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Sigh, more lies.  

 

Terrible to see it - and example of how Trump gets in the way of even his own agenda.....like he genuinely wants to end the war (of that I have no doubt)......but if your Putin listening this.......why the hell would you agree to any genuine ceasefire/peace now.......Trump is happy to let Ukraine bleed out on the battlefield......a better 'deal' for Putin is 12,18,24 months out from here.....more territory will fall, Zelensky may fail poltically and be replaced all while Ukraine will be even more indebted & damaged nation by then which fits in with the aim of making Ukraine a dysfunctional rump state at the end of this.

 

For the folks that think there is 4D chess happening re:tariffs....you should see how Trump the peacemaker can't get out of his way in attempting to a broker a peace in Ukraine/Russia. Its laughable.

Edited April 14, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-memo-by-howard-marks/id1521551570?i=1000702912353
 

don’t know if this is a repost… I’ve always enjoyed reading Marks thoughts