mcliu

Nominal GDP was up 4.8% annualized. Seems kind of high for a rate cut. Also unemployment is only 3.8%.

Core PCE +3.7% but only +1.6% GDP? Just a quarter but are we seeing potential stagflation?

Wow. Is it really a hedge if the opportunity cost is 90%? 11k actual vs 100k “unhedged”. -50% over 20 years doesn’t sound like a hedge. Also this is a mutual fund not a hedge fund.. Pretty crazy that he can do this.

Kyoto’s amazing, my favourite place to visit in the world. If you’re into food, try to find a kaiseki restaurant in Kyoto. It’s a real experience and Kyoto takes it to the next level. You might need to have your hotel book since most are reservations only. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaiseki Renting a kimono for a day is kind of fun given the historical backdrop. All the Japanese gardens are incredible. The Philosopher’s Walk is a nice less touristy area to go for a walk. There’s an incredible robata (梨門邸) that we accidentally wandered into for lunch that I still reminisce about. https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e3906.html

+1 Yes. Why was it deleted?

The fundamentals still show declining inventories. However, production has increased in the US - nearly 13mmbpd.

I think yes and no. There's different ways of winning. Fighting proxy wars is not that effective. The US lost the proxy war in Vietnam but won the Cold War. I think the US won because they demonstrated that a capitalist-democratic society provided a better quality of life than a socialist-command society. I think to win long-term, your society needs to excel in freedom, education, safety, healthcare, infrastructure, cost of living, technology, business opportunities. Over the last two decades, we have not invested enough in these areas and other places are catching up or surpassing us.

$100B more to maintain current stalemate.. "Milley says: there will be no military victory."

Three major Canadian banks have disclosed that about 20 per cent of their residential mortgage borrowers – representing nearly $130-billion in loans – are seeing their balances grow as their monthly payments no longer cover all the interest they owe. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-mortgage-borrowers-td-bmo-cibc-homeowners/

Was peace possible if NATO agreed to stop its expansion?

The future is uncertain, especially for wars, so it's good to think probabilistically. In a downside scenario, Ukraine might not prevail. What happens then?

Our tax dollars aren't going to Wagner, they're going to our politicians and to Ukraine. Why shouldn't it be a problem if these folks end up supporting extremists? The longer this war drags on the more Ukrainians & Russians will die. Why aren't we trying to get Ukraine to negotiate for peace? France brokered a ceasefire between Georgia and Russia after 7 days, saving countless lives, why can't that happen here? Does the West really care about Ukrainians or are we using them to give the finger to Russia? If we cared so much about Ukrainian lives, why don't we send our own troops instead?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/22/ukraine-war-ethics-morality-murky/

Strange upside down world now. It seems like the Russians are learning quickly. There is a growing possibility that Ukraine may not prevail despite our weapons. Meanwhile, Ukrainian casualties are mounting quickly. What happens then?

10 years of Trudeau gave us negative per capita GDP, weaker C$ broken healthcare, housing crisis, immigration crisis, broken education, depleted and broken military, record debt and deficits and multiple foreign policy fiascos. Probably time for some change.

Seems like the narrative is changing from “where’s the proof” to “but he’s a terrorist.”

Zelenskyy came to Canadian Parliament recently. They gave a standing ovation to an Ukrainian veteran that fought against the Soviet Union in WW2. Turns out that he fought as part of a SS unit. https://forward.com/fast-forward/561927/zelenskyy-joins-canadian-parliaments-ovation-to-98-year-old-veteran-who-fought-with-nazis/ The man was identified as Hunka by the Associated Press, which published a photograph showing Zelenskyy smiling and raising a fist during the ovation. The AP caption described Hunka as having “fought with the First Ukrainian Division in World War II before later immigrating to Canada.” The First Ukrainian Division is another name for the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, the military wing of the Nazi Party; the unit was also called SS Galichina. This is the same unit that is honored by controversial monuments in Canada, Australia, and, as the Forward recently exposed, the suburbs of Philadelphia and Detroit. Jewish groups have called for their removal. Formed in 1943, SS Galichina was composed of recruits from the Galicia region in western Ukraine. The unit was armed and trained by the Nazis and commanded by German officers. In 1944, the division was visited by SS head Heinrich Himmler, who spoke of the soldiers’ willingness to slaughter Poles.” Three months earlier, SS Galichina subunits perpetrated what is known as the Huta Pieniacka massacre, burning 500 to 1,000 Polish villagers alive.

It sounds like Canada was trying to keep this confidential and work the back channels but reporters caught wind and were going to break the story. Evidence is confidential given the “investigation” but sources have leaked: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sikh-nijjar-india-canada-trudeau-modi-1.6974607 The Canadian government has amassed both human and signals intelligence in a months-long investigation of a Sikh activist's death that has inflamed relations with India, sources tell CBC News. That intelligence includes communications involving Indian officials themselves, including Indian diplomats present in Canada, say Canadian government sources. The intelligence did not come solely from Canada. Some was provided by an unnamed ally in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Canadian sources say that, when pressed behind closed doors, no Indian official has denied the bombshell allegation at the core of this case — that there is evidence to suggest Indian government involvement in the assassination of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil.

I think 15 yr is not a great comparison because fracking really took off in the last 10 years. US went from a nominal player to #1 producer. Prices would be far higher had fracking never happened. Prices are far higher than 2015/2016. Maybe higher interest rate is actually a stimulus because one person’s interest expense is another person’s interest income.

Not sure how accurate this is or if they're just using it to talk their book.

The economists are starting to do whatever they can to justify not raising rates. This is like the EBITDA version of CPI lol:

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

I think the US is much better positioned than the Byzantines. There is still food & energy security, friendly neighbours and military dominance. But they really need to get their shit together and focus on fixing the real issues instead of fucking around and relying on the country's natural advantages.

I think Economics is difficult to predict like the weather. That's why it's better to be conservative and carry an umbrella if it looks like it'll rain.