Political Posts

[Red Lion]

5 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Are you kidding me?!  Vance has a hard time relating to other people...even MAGA cohorts.  Obama could turn a smile with his enemies!  

 

And in terms of as an orator, Vance is like a beaten up old Lazyboy next to Obama's charismatic, eloquent Herman Miller Eames!  It's not even close. 

 

Only maybe Ronald Regan or Lincoln were as worthy orators as Obama.  Cheers!

Maybe the recency bias with Biden and trump has distorted my view of things. I think he’s a  good public speaker (not that it matters in the world of soundbites) and a smart individual willing to take whatever shot he can at accumulating power. 

[james22]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

That’s how it always is. Just the simple, emotional hot takes, nothing more.

 

The church is near, but the road is icy. The bar is far, but I will walk carefully.

[SharperDingaan]

Old TBills are paid back with the proceeds of new ones. China simply weaponizes its money, steps away from buying new TBills, and let's its existing bills mature. Maybe the US can handle it, maybe it cannot, but either way ... not good for the market.

 

At maturity, option holders in the money can either take the physical underlying or the gain as a cash settlement. Simple thing to weaponize and request delivery anywhere outside of the US. Maybe the US has the gold .... maybe it does not; and we soon find out if they have been swimming naked.

 

When your gold is draining, and you are stretched for buyers to roll over your debt ... it's not long until you hit the debt wall and debt restructuring.

 

Run baby run ....  

 

SD

 

Edited April 8, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[Xerxes]

lots of great thoughts by Larry Fink

 

 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, Red Lion said:

Vance is anything but stupid, but he’s very avaricious and wants power for himself. He’s playing chess not checkers, with the goal to become president or at least get silly rich. Listen to him speak, and you’ll realize he’s more eloquent than Obama. 
 

Personally I’m quite curious to see how he pivots from trump when the time comes. 

Agreed. Trump has a ~23% chance of dying of natural causes due to his age within his term based on actuary tables (0.93x0.935x0.94x0.955~  0.78). Thats a 22% chance of Vance becoming president.

 

Edited April 8, 2025 by Spekulatius

[WFF]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Agreed. Trump has a ~23% chance of dying of natural causes due to his age within his term based on actuary tables (0.93x0.935x0.94x0.955~  0.78). Thats a 22% chance of Vance becoming president.

 

Off topic, but this chart made me look up the probabilities for Warren, and now my day is shot.  I need a drink about now. 

[thepupil]

this is a fun, albeit unrealistic, chart. 
 

[Spekulatius]

59 minutes ago, thepupil said:

this is a fun, albeit unrealistic, chart. 
 

I think there are some importers exporters middlemen this might be in trouble with those tariffs. If you take example  China was 100% or whatever  tariffs, something that was ordered 2 month ago and shows up tomorrow costs  twice as much. Then can they even wholesale it any more? Their customer might cancel and then they are left holding the bag, depending on how the contract are structured. Even if there are contracts, it could result in lawsuits, while their cash is tied up.

 

Or they pay the tariffs and de day later Trump changes his mind and then can thy get the money back? Nobody knows. If not, they make a huge loss’s in what is probably a razor margin business.

My guess us all those Import / Export business , wholesalers or even the large retail cos are shitting in their pants and wonder what to do with this mess. It is likely that this causes major supply chain snarls similar to what happened with COVID-19 if this continues.

 

Except now the Virus is in the WH.

[dwy000]

And now pharmaceuticals will be tariffed (according to trump 5 minutes ago).

 

Who exactly is this intended to benefit and how?

[Gamecock-YT]

6 hours ago, frommi said:

Where is that workforce coming from when unemployment is at 4% and all foreign people get booted out of the country?

 

 

I'd look here.....

 

8 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Reddit filled with small business owners fearing bankruptcy. 104% tariffs on Chinese goods starting tomorrow... This is going to cost jobs and lives.

[Dinar]

There is an insane number of people on the dole.  May be cut welfare & medicaid, and labor force might swell quite a bit.  For instance, the percentage of people in disability is up five fold in eighty years, while workplace has gotten a lot less dangerous (fewer people in mines vs in the office.)

[Mephistopheles]

We went from 1 house gop member to 11 going against Trump tariffs. And new bipartisan legislation out in the senate. Of course it has to be veto proof.

 

Nothing talks like incentives. I think we will be ok 

[Pelagic]

48 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

We went from 1 house gop member to 11 going against Trump tariffs. And new bipartisan legislation out in the senate. Of course it has to be veto proof.

 

Nothing talks like incentives. I think we will be ok 

Something to think about on this front. A key driver of Republican loyalty to Trump's policies has been Musk and the threat of unlimited funding to primary challengers. There's likely a lot more room to break ranks on tariffs since Musk has come out against them. 

[sleepydragon]

17 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

Something to think about on this front. A key driver of Republican loyalty to Trump's policies has been Musk and the threat of unlimited funding to primary challengers. There's likely a lot more room to break ranks on tariffs since Musk has come out against them. 

I think Musk is at risk of getting a margin call on his tesla shares (and becoming a millionaire)

[Charlie]

This quote sums up the remarkable success of the Trump administration very well:

 

“There is a deep irony in Trump claiming unfair treatment of the American economy at a time when it was growing robustly while every other major economy had stalled or was losing growth momentum,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University. “In an even greater irony, the Trump tariffs are likely to end America’s remarkable run of success and crash the economy, job growth and financial markets.’’

 

Cheers! 

 

[Parsad]

These fuckers got him elected, and now they're having second thoughts on tariffs!  It's just a bit of medicine for a very sick patient...c'mon suck it up!  Cheers!

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/joe-rogan-dave-portnoy-among-170211040.html

[Paarslaars]

Well in their defense, nobody in favor of tariffs was expecting this magnitude... 5-10% would have been OK.

[Parsad]

10 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Well in their defense, nobody in favor of tariffs was expecting this magnitude... 5-10% would have been OK.

 

I'm not sure that's a defense.  Just dumb expectations!  Trump was threatening large tariffs against Canada and Mexico...25%...back in November.  Cheers!

[Paarslaars]

Just now, Parsad said:

 

I'm not sure that's a defense.  Just dumb expectations!  Trump was threatening large tariffs against Canada and Mexico...25%...back in November.  Cheers!

Sure but when u start from 25% you end up negotiating down to 10%. Nobody expected 104% on China... this is going to absolutely wreck small business in the U.S. People will lose everything they've build over the years, unemployment goes up, bankruptcies go up, people will lose their homes, their lives...

 

I don't always agree with Joe Rogan as he can be a bit 'out there' sometimes but he's not an idiot nor a bad guy.

Their expectations weren't dumb, the reality has become rather surreal.

[Parsad]

4 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Sure but when u start from 25% you end up negotiating down to 10%. Nobody expected 104% on China... this is going to absolutely wreck small business in the U.S. People will lose everything they've build over the years, unemployment goes up, bankruptcies go up, people will lose their homes, their lives...

 

I don't always agree with Joe Rogan as he can be a bit 'out there' sometimes but he's not an idiot nor a bad guy.

Their expectations weren't dumb, the reality has become rather surreal.

 

The problem is that if Joe Rogan isn't dumb, then he bet on a horse that he should have certainly known was unpredictable and unqualified.  That much was obvious to anyone who wasn't in the MAGA cult.  That is what it is.  Just a bigger version of Jonestown or Waco...one big enough to destroy decades of alliances and the very people who believe in it!  Their fear and hatred for "woke" (what a stupid word) propelled their beliefs beyond rational.  Cheers!

[Paarslaars]

Can't disagree with that, though watching this as an outsider, I had no idea a sitting president could shit the bed like this without anyone being able to stop him.

 

[Parsad]

5 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Can't disagree with that, though watching this as an outsider, I had no idea a sitting president could shit the bed like this without anyone being able to stop him.

 

 

100% agree!  Although once he had the Supreme Court, Presidency, Congress and Senate, and then started firing anyone with any sort of oversight...that should have worried all Americans.  But it didn't!  Cheers!

[Pauly]

8 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Sure but when u start from 25% you end up negotiating down to 10%. Nobody expected 104% on China... this is going to absolutely wreck small business in the U.S. People will lose everything they've build over the years, unemployment goes up, bankruptcies go up, people will lose their homes, their lives...

 

I don't always agree with Joe Rogan as he can be a bit 'out there' sometimes but he's not an idiot nor a bad guy.

Their expectations weren't dumb, the reality has become rather surreal.

 

Nah, this is what he said he was going to do, it's not surreal at all. It's just that the people who predicted this reality were mocked as having 'TDS.'

[frommi]

6 hours ago, thepupil said:

this is a fun, albeit unrealistic, chart. 
 

So WMT will make a loss with tariffs, or how do i understand more than -100% EBIT headwind?

[Gamecock-YT]

They're getting what they voted for. No pity.

 

 

At this rate we're probably a week away from Jay Powell getting 'fired' and the Fed losing their independence.