Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

Last Friday, and in the last weekend, I've been thinking quite a bit about how I - over time, here on CofB&F - have perceived the posts here by @Spekulatius and Charlie [ @dealraker ] about the incumbent POTUS, his personality, his prorities, his motives, his incentives, his world view, and to me it has been pretty striking, that I,  based on presented facts have been forced to change my personal perception, from, generally : 'Ahh, thats reads to me a bit far fetched ... - Let's see.' to 'It's pretty striking identical to what @Spekulatius and Charlie [ @dealraker ] previously have predicted here on CofB&F'.

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Last Friday, and in the last weekend, I've been thinking quite a bit about how I - over time, here on CofB&F - have perceived the posts here by @Spekulatius and Charlie [ @dealraker ] about the incumbent POTUS, his personality, his prorities, his motives, his incentives, his world view, and to me it has been pretty striking, that I,  based on presented facts have been forced to change my personal perception, from, generally : 'Ahh, thats reads to me a bit far fetched ... - Let's see.' to 'It's pretty striking identical to what @Spekulatius and Charlie [ @dealraker ] previously have predicted here on CofB&F'.

John, have your investments changed as the result of your newfound thinking?  If so, how?

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

The word was used by JD Vance (who literally wrote a book about hillbillies).  Who are we tryi g to kid? He meant it as derogatory not compassionate. The spin is dizzying. 

Whatever Vance says is directed to the MAGA base not whoever he is talking to.

 

If you understand that, you understand Vance.

[John Hjorth]

@73 Reds,

 

Thank you for asking.

 

Yes it has. I actually for the first time in many years have some cash available for investment, while I normally reinvest received dividends pretty consistently. What I really want to buy is deeply involved in this tariff mess, so I'm lingering.

[John Hjorth]

43 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

The word was used by JD Vance (who literally wrote a book about hillbillies).  Who are we tryi g to kid? He meant it as derogatory not compassionate. The spin is dizzying. 

 

9 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Whatever Vance says is directed to the MAGA base not whoever he is talking to.

 

If you understand that, you understand Vance.

 

I'm still getting surprised, @Spekulatius,

 

You are likely, and as usual right. But if it is so, then JD Vance is actually dumber than allowed.

[Hektor]

15 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Whatever Vance says is directed to the MAGA base not whoever he is talking to.

 

If you understand that, you understand Vance.

+1. I guess the same might apply to Trump too.

[Hektor]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

JD Vance is actually dumber than allowed.

JD might be focused on keeping his VP position until he is P 

[John Hjorth]

On 4/7/2025 at 12:49 AM, Dalal.Holdings said:

That’s wrong. Ships are highly critical for national defense and take decades to build out infrastructure to create a viable shipbuilding industry.
 

China has replicated U.S. AI capabilities overnight with Deepseek without free access to Nvidia GPUs. Whatever edge U.S. companies seemingly had with AI evaporated overnight.

 

Technology is easily replicable for China as it has shown with stolen IP over and over again.

 

Building ships, tanks, etc from the raw materials and layers and layers of supply chains (“the machine that builds the machine”) is not something that can be done overnight. Once a country loses the ability to do something like that, it becomes near impossible to regain it, especially in times of crisis and war.

 

Bloomberg - News - Videos [April 3^rd. 2025] : Why China Dominates Global Shipbuilding.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

[Red Lion]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

JD Vance is just such a screw-up here. It's head-shaking stupid, and counterproductive. Like the insults against the Greenlandic people.

Vance is anything but stupid, but he’s very avaricious and wants power for himself. He’s playing chess not checkers, with the goal to become president or at least get silly rich. Listen to him speak, and you’ll realize he’s more eloquent than Obama. 
 

Personally I’m quite curious to see how he pivots from trump when the time comes. 

[Pelagic]

25 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

 

It's interesting that the event that seems to have launched Musk into politics was Tesla being snubbed at Biden's EV summit. An unfathomable error on their part to not invite the leading EV manufacturer in the US, likely because of Biden's union ties. Now Navarro going after Tesla has enraged Musk as well.

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

5 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

 

It's interesting that the event that seems to have launched Musk into politics was Tesla being snubbed at Biden's EV summit. An unfathomable error on their part to not invite the leading EV manufacturer in the US, likely because of Biden's union ties. Now Navarro going after Tesla has enraged Musk as well.

 

 

 

 

I’m glad voices of dissent are allowed. Musk, Ackman, Bessent etc.

 

Navarro and Lutnick need pushback because they’re Tariff maximalists

 

Just grab some popcorn and enjoy the show

 

Edited April 8, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

He’s the Rudy Giuliani of Trump’s second term…

 

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

Vance is anything but stupid, but he’s very avaricious and wants power for himself. He’s playing chess not checkers, with the goal to become president or at least get silly rich. Listen to him speak, and you’ll realize he’s more eloquent than Obama. 
 

Personally I’m quite curious to see how he pivots from trump when the time comes. 

 

He's exactly the kind of politician I despise. He doesn't stand for anything, he just wants power.

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, Spooky said:

He's exactly the kind of politician I despise. He doesn't stand for anything, he just wants power.

You must not like a lot of politicians then.

[dealraker]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Last Friday, and in the last weekend, I've been thinking quite a bit about how I - over time, here on CofB&F - have perceived the posts here by @Spekulatius and Charlie [ @dealraker ] about the incumbent POTUS, his personality, his prorities, his motives, his incentives, his world view, and to me it has been pretty striking, that I,  based on presented facts have been forced to change my personal perception, from, generally : 'Ahh, thats reads to me a bit far fetched ... - Let's see.' to 'It's pretty striking identical to what @Spekulatius and Charlie [ @dealraker ] previously have predicted here on CofB&F'.

John I have the personality type (the Meyers-Briggs personality assessment tells me) that kicks me into seeking people's motivations.  Most follow others words literally, not intentions.  Of course I am not always correct but many of my friends say this is a skill for me, that I am good at it.  But regardless Trump is incredibly easy, he just repeats past models over and over and over again.  Step back with time and observe, they all are simply identical.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

8 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Well it never was of course, otherwise you wouldn't base your tariffs on trade deficit.

 

Or on imaginary fentanyl. Or on bringing jobs back to America. Or on anything that the 'reason' has evolved to/from over the last 2-3 months. 

 

Trump's ONLY tool is chaos. He creates chaos and then hopes to climb the ladder for a slightly improved position as people scramble. 

 

It's a poor strategy with tons of collateral damage and destroys goodwill - but is what will characterize the next 3.5 years just like it characterized his first term. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 hours ago, Sweet said:

Trump wants to eliminate the trade deficit with countries.  He said this to the Israelis PM yesterday, something along the lines of getting their trade deficit to zero.

 

 

We literally cannot do that while demanding the US $ be the reserve currency and currency of global trade. 

 

Even with massive deficits where US consumers send $ abroad to be recycled back into global trade and Treasury bond denominated reserves, we have a shortage of dollars any time there is a whiff of crisis. What happens when US consumers are no longer sending net dollars abroad? 

 

Under the current monetary regime, we basically HAVE to run trade deficits which, in turn, funds our bond issuance/fiscal deficits.

 

Without trade deficits, there is significantly less demand for treasuries (higher rates) and structurally higher costs for the same quality of living in the US. Neither is going to be good for bonds/stocks/corporate profits. 

[Spooky]

16 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

You must not like a lot of politicians then.

 

Correct.

[Blake Hampton]

6 minutes ago, dealraker said:

John I have the personality type (the Meyers-Briggs personality assessment tells me) that kicks me into seeking people's motivations.  Most follow others words literally, not intentions.  Of course I am not always correct but many of my friends say this is a skill for me, that I am good at it.  But regardless Trump is incredibly easy, he just repeats past models over and over and over again.  Step back with time and observe, they all are simply identical.  

I believe Charlie Munger's most important rule was to understand someone's incentives.

[Paarslaars]

Reddit filled with small business owners fearing bankruptcy. 104% tariffs on Chinese goods starting tomorrow... This is going to cost jobs and lives.

[Sweet]

 

[Blake Hampton]

Just now, Paarslaars said:

Reddit filled with small business owners fearing bankruptcy. 104% tariffs on Chinese goods starting tomorrow... This is going to cost jobs and lives.

 

Yep

[73 Reds]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

@73 Reds,

 

Thank you for asking.

 

Yes it has. I actually for the first time in many years have some cash available for investment, while I normally reinvest received dividends pretty consistently. What I really want to buy is deeply involved in this tariff mess, so I'm lingering.

John, I agree it is wise to retain some liquidity but have the investments you intend to buy changed as the result of anything tariff-related?

[SharperDingaan]

104% tariffs on China. Way to go Orange Boy! .... just wiped out a good chunk of the buyers for maturing US debt, put a run on central bank gold held at Fort Knox, and dropped the market by a few thousand points.

 

Take physical delivery outside of the US on those gold call options  and Make America Go Away. Can't be a reserve currency if you will not allow free movement of the underlying bullion ... if it even exists.... as how long ago was the last audit?

 

A material debt restructuring has to be getting close, and nobody has to buy US goods/services.  Simply buy cheaper elsewhere, and let the tariff chaos strangle the US.

 

SD