Political Posts

[Paarslaars]

He doesn't have the power to do that... right?

[Gamecock-YT]

12 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

He doesn't have the power to do that... right?

 

Who is going to stop him?

[Sweet]

I don’t think anyone who voted for Trump expected a tariff policy like this.  Yes there is blame for them voting for it, but it’s not like they voted explicitly for this policy.

[Paarslaars]

I am hoping there is a need for congressional approval or change in constitution?

As far as I know, the President cannot fire the chairman of the FED.

 

Anyone have an idea if the foreign tax on US assets is still on the table? This could potentially crash the market much harder than it already has.

Edited April 9, 2025 by Paarslaars

[hasilp89]

On 4/8/2025 at 1:54 AM, hasilp89 said:

I’m trying to make sense of both sides of the argument and see merits in both viewpoints @gfp (why would we take a step back giving American workers menial jobs) and @cubsfan (we shouldn’t trade away the farm, we need to produce something of value).

 

I’m sure many here have read Buffett’s article in fortune on the trade deficit - I hadn’t in a long while and just re-read it. It’s worth a read and I’m curious as to what he thinks of the topic today.
 

While I’m sure he doesn’t believe in the current tactics to reduce the trade deficit, his views in the article make it pretty clear that running a large trade deficit will be a negative over time - he even has a family budget analogy where describes the problem as one generation passing down IOUs to the next. (@gfp I guess he misses the fact that the family can not great money by spending and issuing new debt on demand which the US gvt can do? - to which I would counter that when the budget deficit and stock of debt to GDP becomes to large doesn’t this become harder for the US gvt to do?)

 

Anyway I’m curious what folks think of the article and how it relates to today. Of course his worst fears did not come true (America became more productive with its extra time not working in the textile mill? Reserve currency status and our willingness to protect allies gave us a free ride? Our gdp grew at a fast enough rate that the amount of our wealth being exported never became a serious issue?)

 

I’ll be the first to say I’m not sure. But I sure would like to know.

Will throw out the bat signal to @wabuffo as we may benefit from his wisdom.

 

https://faculty.washington.edu/ss1110/IF/Buffett Fortune 2003 (6).pdf

 

 

Bumping, zero engagement here, was the Buffett article shared discussed already? Or do folks think it is just dated and irrelevant? Imagine someone smarter than me would have some thoughts

[Milu]

16 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

Bumping, zero engagement here, was the Buffett article shared discussed already? Or do folks think it is just dated and irrelevant? Imagine someone smarter than me would have some thoughts

Ya I read the article and posted it in some other thread a few days ago. From my read it seemed that Buffett was suggesting something similar to what trump is doing, perhaps with more nuance but fundamentally the same concept. I don’t think concepts like this get dated as they should be rather timeless. I was also wondering why there wasn’t any discussion about it but just assumed people didn’t read it or possibly had difficulty reconciling the fact that our dear leader Buffett expressed a similar point of view as our stable genius trump. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

I don’t think anyone who voted for Trump expected a tariff policy like this.  Yes there is blame for them voting for it, but it’s not like they voted explicitly for this policy.

 

The guy is bipolar...they should have known.  People, including former Trump administration staff, warned everyone...yet a lot of people, including centrists voted for him.  

 

Frankly, the choice of Harris wasn't a great option, but at least you knew the status quo would continue and global alliances wouldn't be threatened!  Cheers!

[hasilp89]

@Milu cheers, yeah so to me it read like Buffett believed ongoing deficits would come home to roost. Given -US productivity, investment coming back in and dollar reserve status that never happened. But the white mfg class in America got hollowed out, angry, and went populist. To @Parsads post right above they didn’t care about status quo global order. Trump fed into it, a lollapaloza of psychological forces at play also brought in the other voter bases he got elected and voila.

 

i think Buffetts strategy was different in that it had a credit system that could be traded, elegant In theory but likely impractical.

[Parsad]

33 minutes ago, Milu said:

Ya I read the article and posted it in some other thread a few days ago. From my read it seemed that Buffett was suggesting something similar to what trump is doing, perhaps with more nuance but fundamentally the same concept. I don’t think concepts like this get dated as they should be rather timeless. I was also wondering why there wasn’t any discussion about it but just assumed people didn’t read it or possibly had difficulty reconciling the fact that our dear leader Buffett expressed a similar point of view as our stable genius trump. 

 

No, it was very different.  Buffett's model would have had no significant disruption to trade flow, nor targeted any specific country.  

 

Buffett recommended a market for import/export credits/certificates...not unlike carbon credits.  It wouldn't specifically target any one nation, but that global trade would be balanced by these certificates being traded by importers and exporters.  There would be an equal amount of both, so if someone imported $1M in goods to the U.S., they would have $1M of export certificates they could sell back into the market to an exporter who wants to export $1M in goods out of the U.S.  Balanced trade and recovery for the cost of the certificates!

 

So, now if China has an imbalance, they would have to buy "x" amount of U.S. import certificates and incur the cost for that...unless they can find someone in the market that wants to export "x" amount out of the U.S.  No one buys their certificates, that money acts as a tariff for the U.S.  But the U.S. consumer doesn't pay the tariff...it's paid by China to balance trade.

 

Cheers!

 

 

[Milu]

2 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

No, it was very different.  Buffett's model would have had no significant disruption to trade flow, nor targeted any specific country.  

 

Buffett recommended a market for import/export credits/certificates...not unlike carbon credits.  It wouldn't specifically target any one nation, but that global trade would be balanced by these certificates being traded by importers and exporters.  There would be an equal amount of both, so if someone imported $1M in goods to the U.S., they would have $1M of export certificates they could sell back into the market to an exporter who wants to export $1M in goods out of the U.S.  Balanced trade and recovery for the cost of the certificates!

 

So, now if China has an imbalance, they would have to buy "x" amount of U.S. import certificates and incur the cost for that...unless they can find someone in the market that wants to export "x" amount out of the U.S.  No one buys their certificates, that money acts as a tariff for the U.S.  But the U.S. consumer doesn't pay the tariff...it's paid by China to balance trade.

 

Cheers!

 

 

I see, thanks for the further explanation. Not my general area of expertise so good to get some additional context. 

[mattee2264]

Memories are short. People forget that the Trump trade war 1.0 caused a global slowdown which would have probably pushed the US economy into recession if it weren't for COVID intervening and ushering in huge fiscal and monetary stimulus.

 

Trump trade war 2.0 is far broader and wider reaching so the damage will be infinitely worse. Especially as a balanced budget is also part of the policy agenda (with the delusion that they can meaningfully cut spending and use tariff revenue to fund tax cuts for the rich) and the Fed is reluctant to act with inflation already above target and an unwillingness to aid and abet irresponsible policy on Trump's part. There also probably isn't a Trump put at least not anytime soon as Trump sees it as a badge of pride that he won't let Wall Street dictate policy and this is necessary medicine and short term pain for long term gain.

 

Also as Trump is clearly in the wrong and being unreasonable this will make it difficult for him to get concessions especially from unfriendly nations like China and powerful trading blocs like the EU. South Korea Vietnam and Japan and small nations might cave but that won't be enough for Trump to claim a win. 

 

The announced tariff rate increases clearly aren't set in stone and are open for negotiation. But that is little comfort when the starting point is tariff levels that exceed those in place during the Great Depression (and in many economists' minds were the main cause of the Great Depression). And it is anyone's guess where we will land. Nations who give Trump everything he wants will probably get the 10% that UK got but Trump doesn't seem to know what he wants with even zero for zero offers rejected on the basis that they don't address non tariff barriers and Trump seems to have this delusional idea that the USA should have a trade surplus with every nation and trade deficits are somehow an indication that the USA is being ripped off. 

[wachtwoord]

3 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Anyone have an idea if the foreign tax on US assets is still on the table? This could potentially crash the market much harder than it already has.

 

What "foreign tax on US assets" are you referring to? By whom?

[dealraker]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

The problem is that if Joe Rogan isn't dumb, then he bet on a horse that he should have certainly known was unpredictable and unqualified.  That much was obvious to anyone who wasn't in the MAGA cult.  That is what it is.  Just a bigger version of Jonestown or Waco...one big enough to destroy decades of alliances and the very people who believe in it!  Their fear and hatred for "woke" (what a stupid word) propelled their beliefs beyond rational.  Cheers!

And as so many waffle around the edges the "Just a bigger version of Jonestown Waco..." is precisely what it is and all that it is.  Amazing the people who have bought into this stuff but it has always been this way with Trump.  Anyone who can get away with skipping floors in counting the total in a building and get knowledgeable people to quote the obvious error has a power that should be recognized.  It is powerful but it is also nothing from top to bottom but a bunch of lies you couldn't get 3rd graders to accept...yet half the country will.

'

Edited April 9, 2025 by dealraker

[Luke]

16 hours ago, Gregmal said:

That’s how it always is. Just the simple, emotional hot takes, nothing more.

What? There are now the highest tariffs in a century on a critical importer nation for a diverse set of products american citizens and companies need. And we are only having emotional hot takes?! Highly disagree.

 

16 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

Seems like very relevant data here, yet no response from the frequent posters.  Surely it would be in the long term interest for the U.S.

to reindustrialize in these products.  

It would be in the long-term interest for me to become a billionaire, but how realistic is that? That is the critical question.

 

Who is going to invest these trillions in not only new factories but also new companies that have to emerge that have to hire highly qualified workers...there will be a big gap for years and years and its uncertain that these companies or products are competitive globally (they will not) and have enough domestic demand EVEN with the tariffs.

 

So far, there is no technology transfer, no slow IP stealing but just a brutal cut off and gamble on "they will call i am sure folks"...

[Luke]

NEWS: Asus, Dell, Framework, Lenovo, Razer stop US sales.

 

 

2 weeks break for other producers waiting for the tariff effect.

 

Enjoy the prices in local BestBuy or NewEgg, its not going to be fun.

[Sinbius]

China to raise reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%

[Sweet]

On 4/8/2025 at 1:23 AM, mcliu said:

Why do people automatically assume the outsourced jobs are shitty sweat shop menial labour stuff? That stuff doesn’t even make the top 10 list. 

 

 

So what are the top 10 US imports?

The following are the top 10 US imports in 2023. This top 10 accounts for over 65% of the total US$ value of all imports to the US.

1. Electrical Machinery & Equipment – US$463.4 billion (14.6% of total US imports)

2. Machinery Including Computers – US$459.2 billion (14.5% of total imports)

3. Vehicles – US$381.0 billion (12.0% of total imports)

4. Mineral Fuels  – US$266.6 billion (8.4% of total imports)

5. Pharmaceuticals – US$177.8 billion (5.6% of total imports)

6. Optical, Technical & Medical Apparatus – US$118.3 billion (3.7% of total imports)

7. Gems & Precious Metals – US$89.5 billion (2.8% of total imports)

8. Plastics – US$72.3 billion (2.3% of total imports)

9. Furniture, Bedding, Lighting, Signs & Prefabricated Buildings – US$69.0 billion (2.2% of total imports)

10. Organic Chemicals – US$66.6 billion (2.1% of total imports)

 

https://www.agi.global/news/what-are-the-top-10-us-imports

 

16 hours ago, thepupil said:

 

this is just a proxy for "things that have high dollar value"...we are already a net exporter in a few of those categories based on below...and the net amounts are far less when taking into account how much we export w/i same category...it's not like we import 100% of our "machinery including computer" or "vehicles" or "plastics" (you didn't imply that), but we can't just look at the top 10 and conclude much from it without looking at the other side, right?

 

 

 

 

As pupil is saying you need to net these to get the balance of trade per sector.

 

You can't just look at imports of say vehicles and then not look at exports too.

 

If you repatriate some of these - assuming you even can because the company might not be American - then you have to assume that other countries / states, like the EU, China are going take similar measures.

 

For example, US decides it wants to bring pharma production back to the US, EU might block / tariff pharma products from entering their market from the US.  So those companies have to set up two production sites, one in the EU and the other in the US to have access to both markets.

 

With the US running a trade deficit you would expect that they would be a net benefactor of reshoring.  But the US fiscal deficit is higher than the trade deficit, if the fiscal deficit disappears would the US still have such a large trade deficit? 

 

I have no idea how this all these factors play off against each other.

 

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Sweet

[Paarslaars]

43 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

What "foreign tax on US assets" are you referring to? By whom?

Can't find the source anymore, remembered something that Miran mentioned that if countries don't accept the tariff and fight back, the US would tax all assets denominated in USD. Not sure if this is possible at all...

[Paarslaars]

6 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

China to raise reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%

 

It's like watching two monkeys throw shit.

[Sweet]

10 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

China to raise reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%

 lol

[Castanza]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

The problem is that if Joe Rogan isn't dumb, then he bet on a horse that he should have certainly known was unpredictable and unqualified.  That much was obvious to anyone who wasn't in the MAGA cult.  That is what it is.  Just a bigger version of Jonestown or Waco...one big enough to destroy decades of alliances and the very people who believe in it!  Their fear and hatred for "woke" (what a stupid word) propelled their beliefs beyond rational.  Cheers!

Who was qualified to be President in this last election? I’m not sure we’ve had a “ qualified” candidate for a few decades. Kamala and Biden are about as qualified as Trump. We’re still waiting for Kamala to list something she’s accomplished other than Willie Brown. Biden is Trump on paper with a Jimmy Carter persona (and I say that lightly). 

 

Come back to the center….the water is warm. 

[John Hjorth]

Just for the entertainment value of it, and especially for @73 Reds on how to use Grok against Ackman [ ] :

 

 

 

[dealraker]

13 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Just for the entertainment value of it, and especially for @73 Reds on how to use Grok against Ackman [ ] :

 

 

 

Remember this genius had infinite time to load up on BAM and BN as both struggled endlessly at $30 per share and many of us low-lings bought.  Both within months skyrocketed into the 50's and he ballasts the ship into them screaming "FOLLOW ME....I'VE DISCOVERED THE HOLY GRAIL" - something only I can do for you...no one else can come close.  

 

But he wasn't satisfied with media response he got and maybe a bit envious of Brook's mention of Berk look-a-like claim, so he too goes "Buffett's old now, I'm the next one - some come with me you believers...we're now the NEW NEW THING Berkshire."

 

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by dealraker

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Just for the entertainment value of it, and especially for @73 Reds on how to use Grok against Ackman [ ] :

 

 

 

Just this twitter post shows you what a disaster Trump is doing. He is losing support every minute.

 

"Unlike many industries, there is no 'reshoring' solution for coffee. The U.S. simply does not grow coffee at commercial scale, and domestic tea production is virtually nonexistent. There is no viable domestic alternative in the short or the long term."

 

"“You wrote, “Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers,” and I fear this could be devastating enough to put me out of business. ""

 

"If clients resist price hikes and my employees demand higher wages to offset their rising cost of living, we end up in a lose-lose scenario—no spending and no jobs."

 

 

 

TLDR: Bill Ackman warns tariffs are crippling small businesses with soaring costs and urges a 90-day pause to avoid widespread bankruptcies

Edited April 9, 2025 by Luke

[Luke]

 

The fact that this is better policy than trump is quite sad.