Political Posts

[Luke]

"Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to face similar resistance in his tightly controlled country, and can line up monetary and fiscal stimulus for later this year to ease some of the social stress if needed.

"Ultimately, it becomes a game of which country can actually manage its own population more effectively to manage the subsequent economic consequences from this trade war," said Zhiwu Chen, professor of finance at HKU Business School.

"Trump has to face, or at least Republican politicians have to face a lot of electoral pressure, and the American media are still pretty much free," he said. "So I think Trump's ability to fight politically with China is not that great.""

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/limited-options-push-china-into-trade-war-attrition-with-trump-2025-04-08/

[Paarslaars]

China trade escalation unfortunate, loss for them, US Treasury secretary says

 

Bessent considering taking chinese stocks off the U.S. exchange...

[Kizion]

7 minutes ago, Luke said:

"Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to face similar resistance in his tightly controlled country, and can line up monetary and fiscal stimulus for later this year to ease some of the social stress if needed.

"Ultimately, it becomes a game of which country can actually manage its own population more effectively to manage the subsequent economic consequences from this trade war," said Zhiwu Chen, professor of finance at HKU Business School.

"Trump has to face, or at least Republican politicians have to face a lot of electoral pressure, and the American media are still pretty much free," he said. "So I think Trump's ability to fight politically with China is not that great.""

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/limited-options-push-china-into-trade-war-attrition-with-trump-2025-04-08/

 

Had the same thought yesterday. 

 

The harder he pushes on China, and therefore the harder Chinese equities fall (reducing the risk), the more upside there is when China gov. intervenes.

They have created an expectation for their stimulus, and each time the market starts disbelieving it, they will revamp it with some rumours or small acts.

But when it's actually needed, really needed, they will step in (something the US cannot do, when in a deficit and bond yields are at this level) 

[Kizion]

3 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

China trade escalation unfortunate, loss for them, US Treasury secretary says

 

Bessent considering taking chinese stocks off the U.S. exchange...

 

I think you can only be sure that this will happen. 

[Sinbius]

Image an arrogant obese son of rich people trying to bully a dictator born and forged in poverty.....

Edited April 9, 2025 by Sinbius

[73 Reds]

32 minutes ago, Luke said:

Just this twitter post shows you what a disaster Trump is doing. He is losing support every minute.

 

"Unlike many industries, there is no 'reshoring' solution for coffee. The U.S. simply does not grow coffee at commercial scale, and domestic tea production is virtually nonexistent. There is no viable domestic alternative in the short or the long term."

 

"“You wrote, “Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers,” and I fear this could be devastating enough to put me out of business. ""

 

"If clients resist price hikes and my employees demand higher wages to offset their rising cost of living, we end up in a lose-lose scenario—no spending and no jobs."

 

 

 

TLDR: Bill Ackman warns tariffs are crippling small businesses with soaring costs and urges a 90-day pause to avoid widespread bankruptcies

Reading this thread is like being in an echo chamber.  Don't you all get tired of reposting the same worn out criticisms over and over?   To what end?  Have to believe that any COBF member already knows how each of you feel.  Do you find this productive? 

Edited April 9, 2025 by 73 Reds
word

[Paarslaars]

6 minutes ago, Kizion said:

 

I think you can only be sure that this will happen. 

What happens then to people holding those shares/calls? Get transferred to Hong Kong market or?

[Sinbius]

4 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Reading this thread is like being in an echo chamber.  Don't you all get tired of reposting the same worn out criticisms over and over?   To what end?  Have to believe that any COBF member already knows how each of you feel.  Do you find this productive? 

 

Actually I did not know the data on coffee and tea for US and I appreciate the info.

[formthirteen]

15 minutes ago, Kizion said:

I think you can only be sure that this will happen. 

 

Both sides have big ego problems. I wouldn't expect a deal to be made any time soon. Maybe that's the end game and the path both parties were on either way. The US is trying to become mercantilist again (MAMA). They could continue exporting dollars, but it doesn't seem sustainable.

Edited April 9, 2025 by formthirteen

[Dalal.Holdings]

It’s clear that the Trump tariffs are too high, especially on friends. This was likely pushed by nutjobs Navarro and Lutnick. Too many people arguing on here “all tariffs are bad” or “the tariffs are always good”. Or “all free trade is good”. The real answer is in the gray area.

[Sweet]

13 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

It’s clear that the Trump tariffs are too high, especially on friends. This was likely pushed by nutjobs Navarro and Lutnick. Too many people arguing on here “all tariffs are bad” or “the tariffs are always good”. Or “all free trade is good”. The real answer is in the gray area.

Exactly.  Tariffs are necessary sometimes.  This Rand Paul world view of free trade ignores that are players at the table who are effective parasites.  Benefiting from the free trade trade with other countries, but restricting free trade into their own country through current manipulation, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, government support, and outright banning of certain products.  But the high tariffs against your friends and allies - that’s dumb - reciprocate sure.

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Sweet

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Reading this thread is like being in an echo chamber.  Don't you all get tired of reposting the same worn out criticisms over and over?   To what end?  Have to believe that any COBF member already knows how each of you feel.  Do you find this productive? 

Worn-out criticisms? That's your opinion. I see them as totally justified. You totally underestimate the magnitude of what is just happening.

[John Hjorth]

Charlie [ @dealraker ] and Luke [ @Luke ],

 

Ever heard about Heard?

 

DR - dr.dk - Abroad [April 3^rd 2025] : Two uninhabited islands hit by Trump's tariff hammer. But not Russia.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I suppose, soon, we'll in main stream media see pinguins with banners and all such stuff demonstrating against tariffs in front of the White House. It will however last a bit before it happens, because there is long way to swim before they arrive, swimming up the Potomac River.

 

And people passing by the White House will hold their nose because of the pinguins fish stinking bad breath.

[Luke]

The funny thing is that the only way to prevent the damage is to fire a stimulus and more debt. Something trump wouldnt do MAGA and ego wise. He is in a tough tough spot now.

[wachtwoord]

2 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

It’s clear that the Trump tariffs are too high, especially on friends. This was likely pushed by nutjobs Navarro and Lutnick. Too many people arguing on here “all tariffs are bad” or “the tariffs are always good”. Or “all free trade is good”. The real answer is in the gray area.

 

Yeah this. Tariffs are circumstancially good, when an actor needs to protect itself from external exploitation. They play no role in a full trust, zero exploitation environment but that's not what we are in of course.

 

Of course Trump is behaving like an elephant in a porcelain shop (likely on purpose to speed matters up in exchange for risk and disruption) and the imposed tariffs are both too high, determined using a odd formula, misrepresented and introduced in a non-diplomatic fashion (likely all for the same reason: to start of negotiations in Trump's aggressive, low trust style).

 

And yes the above is written that indeed prefers Trump in the oval office rather than any of the alternative options.

[Castanza]

14 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

Image an arrogant obese son of rich people trying to bully a dictator born and forged in poverty.....

 

In a nation that has survived thousands of years and has maintained a focus of "endure at all costs." 

 

17 minutes ago, Kizion said:

 

I think you can only be sure that this will happen. 

 

As a FRFHF holder it's crossed my mind once or twice the last few days

[Luke]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

Charlie [ @dealraker ] and Luke [ @Luke ],

 

Ever heard about Heard?

 

DR - dr.dk - Abroad [April 3^rd 2025] : Two uninhabited islands hit by Trump's tariff hammer. But not Russia.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I suppose, soon, we'll in main stream media see pinguins with banners and all such stuff demonstrating against tariffs in front of the White House. It will however last a bit before it happens, because there is long way to swim before they arrive, swimming up the Potomac River.

 

And people passing by the White House will hold their nose because of the pinguins fish stinking bad breath.

Imagine that this has been crafted by the HIGHEST political persons in the biggest and richest economy in the world. Talking about meritocracy.

[Kizion]

3 minutes ago, Castanza said:

As a FRFHF holder it's crossed my mind once or twice the last few days

 

You're right that this could happen with all ADRs but I mainly think those of Chinese companies will be targeted. 

Apparently Chinese gov. is also stepping in the market to put a floor under the prices, I can imagine that Trump doesn't think this is "fair". 

Just as I also think he will try to sink EU market (using uncertainty about tariffs and negative messages) as deep as US markets YTD, as he couldn't live with the fact that US would perform worse vs. EU. 

[Paarslaars]

6 minutes ago, Kizion said:

 

You're right that this could happen with all ADRs but I mainly think those of Chinese companies will be targeted. 

Apparently Chinese gov. is also stepping in the market to put a floor under the prices, I can imagine that Trump doesn't think this is "fair". 

Just as I also think he will try to sink EU market (using uncertainty about tariffs and negative messages) as deep as US markets YTD, as he couldn't live with the fact that US would perform worse vs. EU. 

You still holding PDD?

[dealraker]

35 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

 

Actually I did not know the data on coffee and tea for US and I appreciate the info.

As to responding to Reds, it isn't good or bad, but for a long time Reds I have thought that by far, by leaps and bounds, you are easily the most repetitive poster on COBF.  So maybe we are all repetitive?  

Edited April 9, 2025 by dealraker

[Spekulatius]

Every Energy, retail, homebuilder, manufacturing and tech exec who liked Trump because of deregulation right now:

 

[73 Reds]

22 minutes ago, Luke said:

Worn-out criticisms? That's your opinion. I see them as totally justified. You totally underestimate the magnitude of what is just happening.

No Luke.  Trump campaigned on tariffs ad nauseum.   It is folks now having meltdowns who underestimated the present fallout.  

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, dealraker said:

As to responding to Reds, it isn't good or bad, but for a long time Reds I have thought that by far, by leaps and bounds, you are easily the most repetitive poster on COBF.  So maybe we are all repetitive?  

LOL, it takes one to know one. 

[Sinbius]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Every Energy, retail, homebuilder, manufacturing and tech exec who liked Trump because of deregulation right now:

 

 

HAhahhahaahahhaah

[Sweet]

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

No Luke.  Trump campaigned on tariffs ad nauseum.   It is folks now having meltdowns who underestimated the present fallout.  

 

You're acting like he campaigned on the current policy when he did not.  The reaction, from those who have been supportive of Trump, should tell you that the way this has been implemented has come as quite a surprise.  Arguing that this was foreseeable - which you appear to be doing - is nothing but hindsight bias.