Gamecock-YT

Price is there to serve you, not to guide you. Act accordingly.

Tough to beat Reuters for what you described.

Must be a slow news day, got to love the 24 hour news cycle. If you want to read up on something that matters that isn’t getting any publicity anywhere look up the recent developments in Myanmar. More productive use of your time than caring about college kids protesting.

The Germans said the same thing about that one guy too

the problem is we are spending as if the music stopped. If the music ever does stop, even more spending will be required to support the economy. Traditionally when the economy is in good shape, government spending should decrease. The calculus has changed since the GFC/Trump's tax cuts/Covid. Now there's no interest by either political party to put the cat back in the bag because doing so would hurt their election chances. Conversely, this is how a government should be behaving:

If the repubs were smart they'd approve the funding but give it all in money to buy drones so the Ukrainians keep going after refineries. alas.....you figure they're so great at finding wedge issues to get their base to the polls that $4.00+ gas would be a slam dunk. Then again it is the repubs we're talking about. Maybe if a ruskie burns a trump bible while giving an abortion to an illegal immigrant.

The previous Sunday was the last edition

wasn't it geopolitical risks?

Some might call it "reputational risk" Having sat on investment committees, it's a real thing.

also teaches the dangers of fluoridation

Only American apps are allowed to corrupt the minds of Americans!

and I'm sure less KYC review as well

what's the old saying? you buy gold when people think of it as just a rock and you sell it when people think of it as something other than a rock.

Keep what I need for the next month or two in a money market account Rest is usually rolled in T-bills from 4-16 weeks in maturity for the added yield and the tax advantage Anything in brokerage tax free accounts I keep in a cash sweep or tempcash fund for the liquidity

149 pages lol

Not necessarily screens but you can get a lot of sector information just by reading a lot. Just this week you've seen Glencore and BHP cutting dividends. A lot of nickel mines are looking to shut down, or asking for government intervention, due to a supply glut coming out of Indonesia. So the mining sector seems interesting, maybe still a little early. There's already talk of a copper shortage in the next year or two. And as you mentioned O&G consolidation in the permian. Is it likely to spread to other areas? You're seeing consolidation even today in Williston basin/Bakken so early returns seem like so. I could see the canadian O&G companies getting in the act as the TMX pipeline becomes operational. But those are probably the two I'm focused on currently.

It's a good question. I think it's allowed me to get more comfortable investing in more commodity-type businesses by understanding where we are in the capital cycle. I guess the big winner using their concept was Scorpio Tankers. It was a losing position for a long time, with even bankruptcy concerns for most of 2018-2019. But the thesis was always that there was an inevitable supply crunch coming down the pike, no ships had been built since the last boom and product tankers have a finite life (~15 years) where most major oil companies won't contract ships older than that due to contamination concerns. Then Russia invades Ukraine and product tanker stocks go up 200-300%. But I think now I'm using it as a quasi-screening process when I start seeing M&A activity, dividend cuts, bankruptcies it's a clue to start looking into the industry. Likewise when you see capex increases and/or debt increasing it's a sign that it might be time to start taking money off the table.

also coincides with housing prices going down. Been a couple of articles recently about Hong Kongers moving to Shenzhen, especially among the youth

it's just an observation, i'm intimately familiar with what an auditor does

CFO really leaning on their auditors to carry a lot of these answers

the call dropped

A little too touristy for my taste. Crowded. Traffic was really bad and takes a long time to get anywhere. Locals who weren't working at a place of business weren't exactly friendly. Tough to get around if you didn't have your own transportation. Probably compare it to visiting Phuket but Hindus instead of Muslims as the local populace.

Wasn't really a fan of Bali. Stayed in Nusa Dua, Sanur, Kuta, and Ubud. Read that Canggu/Seminyak had been taken over by instagram influencers/digital nomads so didn't bother. I think if I were to go back I'd try and get more north than Ubud or even just go across to Lombok/Gili Islands. Have some gado gado for me.

is howard marks anything more than a talking head these days?

Also ever since I've read the book, I always try and note article I find that make a point of identifying where we are in the capital cycle, just came across this article on Maersk: https://www.ft.com/content/1908b06c-0a38-4f5d-81f8-05b42baff81e I also try to capture and save the euphoria articles so went to see if I had any for shipping, sure enough from August 2021: https://www.ft.com/content/6145121c-7069-4ca5-bd8f-429461617d37 The article also links to a Maersk article which mentioned: "Other container shipping companies have begun ordering new vessels again, hoping for the current surge in demand to continue."