Political Posts

[cwericb]

Yup, remember that well. That behaviour really defines who this guy is. His supporters must be proud of that moment.

 

It is kind of like when the was tbragging that the F-35 was invisible. 

"You could be standing right beside it and you couldn't see it." 

The guy really is an idiot. 

[Parsad]

2 minutes ago, cwericb said:

Yup, remember that well. That behaviour really defines who this guy is. His supporters must be proud of that moment.

 

It is kind of like when the was tbragging that the F-35 was invisible. 

"You could be standing right beside it and you couldn't see it." 

The guy really is an idiot. 

 

He makes Dubya look like Stephen Hawkings!  Cheers!

[LC]

Speaking of G-dubs, who would've thought he was this prescient:

https://www.c-span.org/clip/qa/user-clip-george-w-bush-on-dangerous-isms/5159236

[Parsad]

57 minutes ago, LC said:

Speaking of G-dubs, who would've thought he was this prescient:

https://www.c-span.org/clip/qa/user-clip-george-w-bush-on-dangerous-isms/5159236

 

Hmmm!  Now if you combine all three "isms"...it's just called "Trumpism!"  Cheers!

[Grenville]

Holy moly baloney!

 

peter navaroos expert source in his book about tariffs is a made up dude whose name is Ron Vara from his last name…lol

 

so so awesome…

Edited April 5, 2025 by Grenville

[mattee2264]

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/senators-bipartisan-bill-trump-tariffs

 

How likely are initiatives like the above to succeed? 

 

I am not too familiar with US politics but as I understand Trump is using emergency powers to push through unpopular tariff hikes. So there are political mechanisms that could be used to revoke the use of those powers and force him to U-turn. 

 

After all DOGE has shown that most politicians are filthy rich so they are going to be feeling a massive hit to their wealth and that should test their blind loyalty to Trump. 

[lnofeisone]

20 hours ago, Sweet said:

He shouldn’t pay.  This is the dumb crap the EU does.

Musk played the game and he lost. He now needs to pay up. I don't feel sorry for him. Musk thinks empathy is a disease. So here I am, free of empathy for him.

 

I'm eager for Europe to pursue and obsolete Tesla's credits. Incidentally, it'll put Europe on a better energy path. So there is some good in there. 

 

This will be a fun watch. I am loaded on up on popcorn. 

[Sweet]

5 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Musk played the game and he lost. He now needs to pay up. I don't feel sorry for him. Musk thinks empathy is a disease. So here I am, free of empathy for him.

 

I'm eager for Europe to pursue and obsolete Tesla's credits. Incidentally, it'll put Europe on a better energy path. So there is some good in there. 

 

This will be a fun watch. I am loaded on up on popcorn. 

 

Europe is operating a type of liberal authoritarianism.  The idea that ‘misinformation’ as decided by the EU should be fine is ridiculous.  There is also a political element to this too - they don’t like Musk.  All this is why trust in European institutions is very low. 

[John Hjorth]

6 hours ago, cwericb said:

Yup, remember that well. That behaviour really defines who this guy is. His supporters must be proud of that moment.

 

It is kind of like when the was tbragging that the F-35 was invisible. 

"You could be standing right beside it and you couldn't see it." 

The guy really is an idiot. 

 

 - This gave me a great start on my Saturday morning! - Thank you!, @cwericb.

[lnofeisone]

27 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Europe is operating a type of liberal authoritarianism.  The idea that ‘misinformation’ as decided by the EU should be fine is ridiculous.  There is also a political element to this too - they don’t like Musk.  All this is why trust in European institutions is very low. 

Musk himself was saying that Twitter (at the time) was filled with bots and he shouldn't pay full price for it. Can't have it both ways. And yes, they don't like Musk. Musk entered politics, and that's what you get if you are not liked. Like I said, zero empathy. I also want Europe to go after Tesla's carbon credits, ban Starlink (or favor their home-grown solutions), and put stringent controls on xAI and Neuralink. Musk wants everyone to have a private job and be efficient, so I hope Europe is the first to cut him off from government welfare and help him on his journey to efficiency.

[nwoodman]

3 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/senators-bipartisan-bill-trump-tariffs

 

How likely are initiatives like the above to succeed? 

 

I am not too familiar with US politics but as I understand Trump is using emergency powers to push through unpopular tariff hikes. So there are political mechanisms that could be used to revoke the use of those powers and force him to U-turn. 

 

After all DOGE has shown that most politicians are filthy rich so they are going to be feeling a massive hit to their wealth and that should test their blind loyalty to Trump. 

I think this one won’t get up but it sows the seeds, hence an important development.  The mid terms will be front of my mind now for many republicans.  There was an insightful post above that questioned whether there will be mid terms.  Thinking about this some more in a probabilistic fashion:

I am sure he will give it a crack though.  The Project 2025 framework provides some insight:

 

Why This Matters for the 2026 Midterms

 

Project 2025 doesn’t just plan for presidential transition — it lays groundwork for capturing and consolidating state and federal election machinery, including:

• Installing Trump-aligned state-level attorneys general and secretaries of state
• Conditioning federal funding on compliance with federal “election integrity” standards
• Pre-clearing election plans, especially in urban and Democratic strongholds
• Building a legal and narrative basis to challenge any loss as illegitimate

 

In other words: Project 2025 is the playbook to make disruption legal — or at least procedurally shielded.

 

If this oversteps the mark in terms of politics,  @Parsad feel free to delete.  It’s more about trying understand the various mechanisms in a probabilistic fashion than a political commentary.  It’s very difficult to even remotely understand the logic.  Even the tank the market and roll at lower yields doesn’t pass the scratch and sniff because of the obvious sovereign risk implications. If markets believe the chaos is orchestrated or systemic, not temporary, they’ll demand higher yields later due to:

• Political risk
• Policy volatility
• Inflation uncertainty
• Governance concerns

As much as everyone believes the markets are tanking because of the economic implications, I think it is more about the governance implications.

 

Perhaps it is as simple as a consumption tax that you get to put lipstick on as a nation building initiative then pass that tax cut that was your real MO.

 

Edited April 5, 2025 by nwoodman

[whiskybravo]

Oren Cass offers the logic behind tariff strategy. 
 

https://open.substack.com/pub/understandingamerica/p/happy-liberation-day-to-those-who?r=9iue0&utm_medium=ios

 

We may be going back to friendly terms with our Canadian brothers.  Note no 10% baseline global tariff on Canada and Mexico.  Once the issues upon which specific tariffs are resolved there will be free trade in North America.

 

On the other hand, look to increased decoupling of the U.S. economy from China.

Edited April 5, 2025 by whiskybravo

[dealraker]

10 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

I think this one won’t get up but it sows the seeds, hence an important development.  The mid terms will be front of my mind now for many republicans.  There was an insightful post above that questioned whether there will be mid terms.  Thinking about this some more in a probabilistic fashion:

I am sure he will give it a crack though.  The Project 2025 framework provides some insight:

 

Why This Matters for the 2026 Midterms

 

Project 2025 doesn’t just plan for presidential transition — it lays groundwork for capturing and consolidating state and federal election machinery, including:

• Installing Trump-aligned state-level attorneys general and secretaries of state
• Conditioning federal funding on compliance with federal “election integrity” standards
• Pre-clearing election plans, especially in urban and Democratic strongholds
• Building a legal and narrative basis to challenge any loss as illegitimate

 

In other words: Project 2025 is the playbook to make disruption legal — or at least procedurally shielded.

 

If this oversteps the mark in terms of politics,  @Parsad feel free to delete.  It’s more about trying understand the various mechanisms in a probabilistic fashion than a political commentary.  It’s very difficult to even remotely understand the logic.  Even the tank the market and roll at lower yields doesn’t pass the scratch and sniff because of the obvious sovereign risk implications. If markets believe the chaos is orchestrated or systemic, not temporary, they’ll demand higher yields later due to:

• Political risk
• Policy volatility
• Inflation uncertainty
• Governance concerns

As much as everyone believes the markets are tanking because of the economic implications, I think it is more about the governance implications.

 

Our family of businessmen have been discussing the above regularly since the last election.  We obsessed over raising cash in the most tax efficient manner possible and we unanimously believe Trump's negative affects on capital allocations are vastly underestimated.  

[Blake Hampton]

So you're telling me that Trump isn't the reincarnation of Jesus Christ, our lord and savior?

[Blake Hampton]

19 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:

When looking at comparables, in the years that followed previous unusual episodes of tariffs and global trade limits (conclusion of Gilded Age and Roaring 20s), there was a relatively significant increase in purchasing power for the few (oligarchs, deflation) but this time is different?

Personal note: In the recent past, many here tempered questions about QE and related experiments (just shuffling government liabilities around for the owners of capital) and they (posters with perspective) were correct in the sense that these from-the-top 'money' experiments were absolutely inconsequential compared to present day gambles?

You know I was thinking about this again and I had an interesting thought: Wouldn't the net effect from a country's tariffs effectively depend on their specific trade situation?

 

If you're a net exporter = deflationary?

If you're a net importer = inflationary?

[Luke]

5 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

You know I was thinking about this again and I had an interesting thought: Wouldn't the net effect from a country's tariffs effectively depend on their specific trade situation?

 

If you're a net exporter = deflationary?

If you're a net importer = inflationary?

Yeah, certainly an effect based on these two economic situations.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

 

FWIW, the magic tariff formula was applied incorrectly too. You can’t make this up. They probably could have used the jumanji method to create the triff rates.

https://www.aei.org/economics/president-trumps-tariff-formula-makes-no-economic-sense-its-also-based-on-an-error/

 

 

[Castanza]

11 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

+1!  Greg's right about this.  I don't think this will be as bad as the Pandemic correction.  Somewhere in the middle.

 

Trump likes to create chaos to get the deals he wants.  He doesn't care if a handful of people fail, but he does care if things really start to turn against him.  We aren't there yet, but we aren't that far either.  

 

Another 10%-20% drop and you will see deals, negotiations, policy changes...and then he'll find a way to make himself the hero from all of it!  Cheers!

Yeah the tariffs may be a terrible idea for 99% of the things and countries. But this situation is solvable with the stroke of a pen and some good gestures by the next president (if it goes 4 years). People comparing this to the pandemic need to take a step back. That was a once in a lifetime event….this is tariffs…trade agreements….the world is not ending and people are not dying (yet).

 

As I said, quit bitching and start buying….come up with a capital allocation plan, get organized and start looking for sales. I guess do both of you want, but bitching clouds judgement imo. 

[nwoodman]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

FWIW, the magic tariff formula was applied incorrectly too. You can’t make this up. They probably could have used the jumanji method to create the triff rates.

https://www.aei.org/economics/president-trumps-tariff-formula-makes-no-economic-sense-its-also-based-on-an-error/

 

 

Made my day!

[Spekulatius]

This has been underreported. China has now put export controls on rare earth metals - not just the raw materials ,but also finished goods. Pretty much all magnets are made of rare earth metals ( Neodymium etc) nowadays.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-hits-back-us-tariffs-with-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-04-04/

 

The product parts could be far reaching ans is open for interpretation . I deal a bit with Germanium which was affected by a former export control, and prices have surged quite a bit and some finished goods are unavailable.

 

Export control exceptions are virtually impossible to get because you need to prove that the product is not dual use. Any company doing any business with defense applications or state institutions can pretty much forget about it.

Edited just now by Spekulatius

[Paarslaars]

25 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I deal a bit with Germanium which was affected by a former export control, and prices have surged quite a bit and some finished goods are unavailable.

Edited just now by Spekulatius

You can get it through Umicore Europe, they have sourcing in Congo and China.

[Jaygo]

Trump is a zero sum guy. That is both stupid and counter to the last couple hundred years of human progress. Adam Smith has a book Trump should read. The idea of one human selling clothing to another far cheaper than he can make himself raises both sides. If trump thinks its wise to loose this position he's Fucked.

 

The only time when zero sum sense is when production capacity is placed above economic efficiency in the hierarchy of needs is if a global war was expected in the next 10-15 years so my sincere hope is that Trump is as dumb as he looks and not playing 9D chess.

 

If he is dumb the economy should be able to muddle through until he gets the boot or finds some rationality. If he is preparing for a global conflict where production of everything including textiles is required than stocks be damned buy gold guns and canned goods.

 

Both situations are very bad for the global economy. Best case would be more global integration that raises all boats and hopefully keeps the peace.

[Junior R]

the other thing is if anything US makes more money from these countries as many tech companies sell services / ads to to other countries ..Would you rather have your people put shoes together or  train them to get better jobs

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

FWIW, the magic tariff formula was applied incorrectly too. You can’t make this up. They probably could have used the jumanji method to create the triff rates.

https://www.aei.org/economics/president-trumps-tariff-formula-makes-no-economic-sense-its-also-based-on-an-error/

 

54 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

Made my day!

 

4 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

Trump is a zero sum guy. That is both stupid and counter to the last couple hundred years of human progress. Adam Smith has a book Trump should read. The idea of one human selling clothing to another far cheaper than he can make himself raises both sides. If trump thinks its wise to loose this position he's Fucked.

 

The only time when zero sum sense is when production capacity is placed above economic efficiency in the hierarchy of needs is if a global war was expected in the next 10-15 years so my sincere hope is that Trump is as dumb as he looks and not playing 9D chess.

 

If he is dumb the economy should be able to muddle through until he gets the boot or finds some rationality. If he is preparing for a global conflict where production of everything including textiles is required than stocks be damned buy gold guns and canned goods.

 

Both situations are very bad for the global economy. Best case would be more global integration that raises all boats and hopefully keeps the peace.

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114281370220943461

 

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114282305980898453

 

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114285375813275308

 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Trade and tariff negotiations via social media are awesome. 

 

[Jaygo]

6 minutes ago, Junior R said:

the other thing is if anything US makes more money from these countries as many tech companies sell services / ads to to other countries ..Would you rather have your people put shoes together or  train them to get better jobs

 

Exactly. Slowing free global trade is bad for everyone. 

 

Some things I get, if you want to subsidize ship building or pharmaceuticals so they can be made onshore for a little more safety sure. But to go after every country on earth is just like jamming a stick in the wheels of trade. Everyone looses especially the worlds largest economy. 

 

The other thing to consider is the pain caused to other humans. Like sure a few points on the Dow sucks for us but what about the girl in Cambodia making $1600 a year? Let them eat dirt?

 

When DJT was on Rogan I liked him, If I was American I would have voted for him. He sounded rational and spoke to causes that resonated with me.  Now he is just a complete prick.