Political Posts

[Cigarbutt]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

And how exactly does putting a massive tax on goods bring down inflation?

When looking at comparables, in the years that followed previous unusual episodes of tariffs and global trade limits (conclusion of Gilded Age and Roaring 20s), there was a relatively significant increase in purchasing power for the few (oligarchs, deflation) but this time is different?

Personal note: In the recent past, many here tempered questions about QE and related experiments (just shuffling government liabilities around for the owners of capital) and they (posters with perspective) were correct in the sense that these from-the-top 'money' experiments were absolutely inconsequential compared to present day gambles?

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

What exactly is there to negotiate with Vietnam?  They buy $15b of stuff from the US.  We buy $150b of goods from them, which now has a 50% tax for US companies.  Shooting ourself in the arm instead of the head isn't exactly a win.  

None of the details matter it’s just framework. The tariffs don’t really have a point beyond negotiating leverage anyway. Pick a country, claim you’re negotiating, validate through market reaction, rinse repeat. All the obsession over running exact numbers across various scenarios and then extrapolating years out is a waste of time.

[dwy000]

Just now, Gregmal said:

None of the details matter it’s just framework. The tariffs don’t really have a point beyond negotiating leverage anyway. Pick a country, claim you’re negotiating, validate through market reaction, rinse repeat. All the obsession over running exact numbers across various scenarios and then extrapolating years out is a waste of time.

Negotiating leverage for what though?  Nobody is making clear the end game. In fact the closest argument given so far is to bring manufacturing back to the US - which anyone with half a brain knows is never going to happen and most of those goods are not jobs we want.

 

Stoking chaos as a strategy is only positive if there's actually an end game.  Here we have chaos and uncertainty at home and we are pissing off all of our trading partners and allies.....for what exactly?

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

Stoking chaos as a strategy is only positive if there's actually an end game. 

Lower oil prices, lower rates, lower inflation ahead of tax cuts. This has been said many times I don’t know why people keep saying they don’t know. Tariffs are just most effective microphone 

[dwy000]

Just now, Gregmal said:

Lower oil prices, lower rates, lower inflation ahead of tax cuts. This has been said many times I don’t know why people keep saying they don’t know. Tariffs are just most effective microphone 

Rates and oil prices come down because the economic damage stimulated a reaction. For the short term. It's like burning down your house to cook a steak.  Claiming we need to cut the deficit and then tanking the economy and raising prices thru tariffs to support tax cuts to the wealthy is the definition of insanity. 

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Rates and oil prices come down because the economic damage stimulated a reaction. For the short term. It's like burning down your house to cook a steak.  Claiming we need to cut the deficit and then tanking the economy and raising prices thru tariffs to support tax cuts to the wealthy is the definition of insanity. 

Nothings happened in 2 days lol. The stock boys X TDS crowd just think the world changed because their respective feeds tell them what they need to hear with their biases. Like literally nothing burned down…

[Sweet]

One way this is being played out, and I hate to be one of these 4D chess types, but we must entertain the possibility.  Is that the administration really want to tariff certain countries, but they don’t want to be seen to single those countries out.  So they tariff everyone and slowly make deals with those countries they want, leaving certain countries (China) with the high tariff they always wanted.

[dwy000]

Just now, Gregmal said:

Nothings happened in 2 days lol. The stock boys X TDS crowd just think the world changed because their respective feeds tell them what they need to hear with their biases. Like literally nothing burned down…

Like literally, 25% tariffs on cars were imposed already.  Stellantis laid off 900.  Whirlpool laid off 600. And $6trillion of additional tariffs go into place in 5 days. And China has put a 35% tariff on US imports.

 

To say people are overreacting because nothing has burned down yet while gasoline has been poured on the house and someone is actively trying to light matches is an interesting take. 

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Sweet said:

One way this is being played out, and I hate to be one of these 4D chess types, but we must entertain the possibility.  Is that the administration really want to tariff certain countries, but they don’t want to be seen to single those countries out.  So they tariff everyone and slowly make deals with those countries they want, leaving certain countries (China) with the high tariff they always wanted.

Yup. Within a month I’d imagine at least half of these are brought to negligible levels. Probably more. Then all the people whom panicked first realize they threw away money and paid taxes(or maybe not) over a short term circus.

[Red Lion]

2 minutes ago, Sweet said:

One way this is being played out, and I hate to be one of these 4D chess types, but we must entertain the possibility.  Is that the administration really want to tariff certain countries, but they don’t want to be seen to single those countries out.  So they tariff everyone and slowly make deals with those countries they want, leaving certain countries (China) with the high tariff they always wanted.

 

Doesn't it kind of feel like that with Canada? All the press about trade wars, fentanyl and the 51st state, but factoring in all the tariff exempt trade through USMCA agreement, isn't Canada now at effectively the lowest rate worldwide? 

[dwy000]

3 minutes ago, Sweet said:

One way this is being played out, and I hate to be one of these 4D chess types, but we must entertain the possibility.  Is that the administration really want to tariff certain countries, but they don’t want to be seen to single those countries out.  So they tariff everyone and slowly make deals with those countries they want, leaving certain countries (China) with the high tariff they always wanted.

Suggesting anyone in this administration does anything with nuance implies not being familiar with any of their actions. That's the kind of justification that's given after the fact when people are trying to rationalize why a bazooka was used instead of a .22 and led to massive collateral damage. 

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Like literally, 25% tariffs on cars were imposed already.  Stellantis laid off 900.  Whirlpool laid off 600. And $6trillion of additional tariffs go into place in 5 days. And China has put a 35% tariff on US imports.

 

To say people are overreacting because nothing has burned down yet while gasoline has been poured on the house and someone is actively trying to light matches is an interesting take. 

 

There are deflections, excuses, evasive explanations and rationalizations, and then there are explanations.

[dwy000]

4 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

Doesn't it kind of feel like that with Canada? All the press about trade wars, fentanyl and the 51st state, but factoring in all the tariff exempt trade through USMCA agreement, isn't Canada now at effectively the lowest rate worldwide? 

This is a good example of the lack of strategy. 

 

They used fentanyl as an excuse (from Canada!!!), tore up a trade agreement (that Trump put in place!!!) and now have tariffs being paid by US companies (steel, nickel, cars, etc).  For what?  How is the US better off in its trade with Canada than before?  And now Canada is seeking closer ties to Mexico, the EU and China.  Where is the win for the US??????

[Blake Hampton]

1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:

When looking at comparables, in the years that followed previous unusual episodes of tariffs and global trade limits (conclusion of Gilded Age and Roaring 20s), there was a relatively significant increase in purchasing power for the few (oligarchs, deflation) but this time is different?

Personal note: In the recent past, many here tempered questions about QE and related experiments (just shuffling government liabilities around for the owners of capital) and they (posters with perspective) were correct in the sense that these from-the-top 'money' experiments were absolutely inconsequential compared to present day gambles?

 

I don't know about the 1800s, but the Great Depression coincided with a deflationary collapse. When the money supply shrinks by a third, that has a way of increasing purchasing power for the remaining dollars in the system. That by no way means that prices on imported goods didn't face upward pressure because of tariffs; it's just that the deflationary effects from 40% of our nation's banks failing overwhelmed them.

 

Also, you have to consider that the United States was a net exporter then, which is the complete opposite position of where we are today. The primary problem then was that the retaliatory tariffs from other countries ended up hurting domestic industry.

 

 

https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Senate_Passes_Smoot_Hawley_Tariff.htm

 

Edited April 4, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Suggesting anyone in this administration does anything with nuance implies not being familiar with any of their actions. That's the kind of justification that's given after the fact when people are trying to rationalize why a bazooka was used instead of a .22 and led to massive collateral damage. 

Sure, but it makes sense ti think out what could be the case if that assumption is wrong though.

 

In fact, that assumption could be correct and the administration figure out they went too hard and end up at the same position - whether with foresight or not.

 

We’ll find out.

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Suggesting anyone in this administration does anything with nuance implies not being familiar with any of their actions.

lol please list your qualifications and relationship experience then. This is hilarious. 

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, Sweet said:

Sure, but it makes sense ti think out what could be the case if that assumption is wrong though.

 

In fact, that assumption could be correct and the administration figure out they went too hard and end up at the same position - whether with foresight or not.

 

We’ll find out.

I'd argue that even if that was the case (which i think is zero), the collateral damage and long term ramifications well outweigh any sort of benefit from those intended outcomes 

[cwericb]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

This is a good example of the lack of strategy. 

 

They used fentanyl as an excuse (from Canada!!!), tore up a trade agreement (that Trump put in place!!!) and now have tariffs being paid by US companies (steel, nickel, cars, etc).  For what?  How is the US better off in its trade with Canada than before?  And now Canada is seeking closer ties to Mexico, the EU and China.  Where is the win for the US??????

 

 "Now we all understand how he bankrupted a casino."

[dwy000]

Just now, Gregmal said:

lol please list your qualifications and relationship experience then. This is hilarious. 

What?  This is literally the administration that put Musk on stage with a chainsaw and wreaking havoc and disrupting entire agencies for almost no meaningful result. 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

@Xerxes, I and others will get a good laugh soon, when we  empty the mailbox :

 

my deliveries are always couple of weeks late.

 

So I still don’t know that April 2nd has happened. 
 

I wonder how the market will react on April 3rd and 4th

 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2025 by Xerxes

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

What?  This is literally the administration that put Musk on stage with a chainsaw and wreaking havoc and disrupting entire agencies for almost no meaningful result. 

I know. 100%. Musk. Bessent. Lutnick, etc. All successful, highly accomplished guys. Then they go to the “other team” and every Manny, Moe and Curly just knows their stupid idiots with no plans…LMFAO

Edited April 4, 2025 by Gregmal

[Castanza]

Less bitching more buying...this volatility is a gift to anyone under 50...And we've now had two of these "events" in 5 years...

Edited April 4, 2025 by Castanza

[SharperDingaan]

The US administration is just incompetent, that's all there is to it.

Hence .... the reliable action is to simply trade against whatever it does, in expectation that it has no idea as to the mechanics, and can be relied upon to f*** ** **.  Orange Boys signature isn't worth anything, and It's essentially a long straddle; if by fluke the administration gets it right - it's a bonus ... but if it screws up, it's also a bonus. Don't much care which way it goes 

 

Shitty way to run a railroad, but it is what it is.

 

SD

Edited April 4, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, SharperDingaan said:

The US administration is just incompetent, that's all there is to it.

Hence .... the reliable action is to simply trade against whatever it does, in expectation that it has no idea as to the mechanics, and can be relied upon to f*** ** **.  It's essentially a long straddle; if by fluke it gets it right - it's a bonus ... but if it screws up, it's also a bonus. Don't much care which way it goes 

 

Shitty way to run a railroad, but it is what it is.

 

SD

Think you're right. As Howard Menkin once said "nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people"

[Red Lion]

31 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

This is a good example of the lack of strategy. 

 

They used fentanyl as an excuse (from Canada!!!), tore up a trade agreement (that Trump put in place!!!) and now have tariffs being paid by US companies (steel, nickel, cars, etc).  For what?  How is the US better off in its trade with Canada than before?  And now Canada is seeking closer ties to Mexico, the EU and China.  Where is the win for the US??????

We are on the same page here for the most part, but again the majority of the population in Canada and the USA think we are in some type of trade war when the reality appears to be something different. Certainly seems like bad communication and a great deal of unnecessary ill will between longstanding close allies. It will be interesting to see if there's any widespread coverage about the actual effective tariff rates by the news media, I personally doubt it. 

Edited April 4, 2025 by Red Lion