Political Posts

[Luke]

There could be a lot of bankruptcies coming on when things were financed on previous tariff environments that can't be paid off with current tariffs anymore.

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

European Union approves first set of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports

Good.

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Luke said:

s @dwy000 said: In a normal process the cratered demand would result in a lowering of prices.  Since the price increase is due to taxes, that's not possible. Most businesses can and will not lower their margins by the amount of tariffs paid. 

So then they sit on the shelf until they’re liquidated and orders for future product are adjusted, it’s pretty simple. And it’s not inflation. Just supply and demand.

[mcliu]

Just now, Luke said:

Yeah and how does he make a living when margins deplode?

Aren't corporate profit margins are at all time highs? It's almost like the more companies offshore, the higher their margins.

The stock market drop might be a reflection that margins will compress. But it's not existential as margins were far lower in the past..

[dwy000]

5 minutes ago, mcliu said:

Why not?

Say you run a shop. You buy something for $2 and you sell it for $10 but because of tariffs it now costs $3 and you try to sell it for $11.

But you see that sales has slowed at $11. So what do you do? Keep it at $11 or cut it to $10.50 or back to $10?

Try, you buy it for $7 and sell it for $10 and after costs you make $0.50.  Most retailers have net margins of single digits (or close to zero if you're Amazon).  If the tax adds $1 you either raise prices or lose money. 

[dwy000]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

So then they sit on the shelf until they’re liquidated and orders for future product are adjusted, it’s pretty simple. And it’s not inflation. Just supply and demand.

That works for highly discretionary products.  For non-discretionary you can't just stop buying.  

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Luke said:

Considering trump is a "debt is dangerous" guy, i bet he will be hesitant on stimulus too. This COULD turn out into a massive crash frankly which is why i am not buying now.

Huh? Trump made all his money talking a big game and gambling with borrowed money…he was the original Bruce Flatt. 

[rogermunibond]

It all depends on the company's pricing power.

 

And BTW in the @mcliu store example, margins are already coming down.  $2 cost and $10 retail is a higher gross margin than $3 cost and $11 retail.  To preserve your gross margin you'd have to raise prices to $15.

 

[Spekulatius]

50 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

lol :

 

So the next move is Greenland. Makes for a bigger US for sure.

[rogermunibond]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

So the next move is Greenland. Makes for a bigger US for sure.

 

I'm convinced that Orange Man only wants Greenland because the Mercator projection makes the island look so big.

 

In reality.

 

https://thetruesize.com/

[mcliu]

5 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

It all depends on the company's pricing power.

 

And BTW in the @mcliu store example, margins are already coming down.  $2 cost and $10 retail is a higher gross margin than $3 cost and $11 retail.  To preserve your gross margin you'd have to raise prices to $15.

I think there's an argument that outsourcing has largely benefited corporate margins at the expense of labour and now we are facing a reversal of those policies.

Is it really the end of the world if corporate margins go back to its historical averages?

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

I'm convinced that Orange Man only wants Greenland because the Mercator projection makes the island look so big.

 

In reality.

 

https://thetruesize.com/

 

Roger [ @rogermunibond ],

 

That's actually awesome humor! 

[Gregmal]

Well, also missed in all the prognosis and forecasts is that the majority of tariffs aren’t lasting all that long. Thought it was pretty amusing how enraged everyone was that they completely miss the fact that when asked about whether Trump was bluffing, Howard Lutnick responded that they would be in place for….”days or weeks” lol. 
 

So between that and the multiple cues we ve gotten indicating they’re hellbent on crushing oil prices…

 

Go ahead, be long permanent tariffs and oil LOL

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

lol :

 

 

He forgot the disclaimer "This is not financial advice"

[Blake Hampton]

 

[Blake Hampton]

"Long-term interest rates are gapping up, even as the stock market moves sharply downwards. This highly unusual pattern suggests a generalized aversion to US assets in global financial markets. We are being treated by global financial markets like a problematic emerging market."

[gfp]

That's a super unique hot take

[DooDiligence]

11 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Roger [ @rogermunibond ],

 

That's actually awesome humor! 

 

Yo ho ho and a bottle of rhumb.

[Sinbius]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

"Long-term interest rates are gapping up, even as the stock market moves sharply downwards. This highly unusual pattern suggests a generalized aversion to US assets in global financial markets. We are being treated by global financial markets like a problematic emerging market."

 

Well I don't know others but I have sold my US bonds and converted to euro...you will have stagflation, isn't bad for the $?

[Blake Hampton]

MOVE index is almost where it was in 2020 with a treasury market that has increased by $8 trillion.

 

This is the first day. Wait until we have a bad inflation reading.

[John Hjorth]

39 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Go ahead, be long permanent tariffs and oil LOL

 

Naturally you're right about that Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What matters here, short term, is not if your POTUS is wrong or right about anything he's doing [I'm dead sure he's right about some things, and dead wrong on others]. What matters is the way he's implementing his ideas and thoughts.

 

On the former CofB&F software platform, where we could have socalled 'signatures' in the end, lower part,  of our posts,  I remember Sanjeev [ @Parsad ] had one - consistently : 'No man is a failure, who has friends.'

 

So, the real question here to think about is : 'Why so?'

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I'm scared sh*tless by now by thinking about what @Spekulatius and Charlie [ @dealraker ] has been posting about this, now for a long time, here on CofB&F.

Edited April 9, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

25 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

MOVE index is almost where it was in 2020 with a treasury market that has increased by $8 trillion.

 

This is the first day. Wait until we have a bad inflation reading.

You are so negative always.  It’s gonna hurt you in the long run.

[John Hjorth]

6 minutes ago, Sweet said:

You are so negative always.  It’s gonna hurt you in the long run.

 

@Sweet,

 

My second boss in my real [full time] work life, after university, once said to me : *Stay focused, you aren't employed here to solve all the problems on the planet.*

 

Blake [ @Blake Hampton ] will eventually get the return he deserves.

 

It's not that complicated.

 

Yet still relentless.

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Well, also missed in all the prognosis and forecasts is that the majority of tariffs aren’t lasting all that long. Thought it was pretty amusing how enraged everyone was that they completely miss the fact that when asked about whether Trump was bluffing, Howard Lutnick responded that they would be in place for….”days or weeks” lol. 
 

So between that and the multiple cues we ve gotten indicating they’re hellbent on crushing oil prices…

 

Go ahead, be long permanent tariffs and oil LOL

Wait, you yourself suggested Lutnick was an idiot and he has repeatedly shown he is just talking whatever the admin tells him. Trump has tweeted the tariffs are not temporary and everyone has been saying Trump is doing exactly what he said he would. 

 

So is Trump lying or is Lutnick lying?

 

You have also been a proponent of using the over reactions to your advantage (which i agree with!). But to do that you have take a view as to what the outcome is likely to be.  And if you're wrong it could cost a lot of money

[Blake Hampton]

37 minutes ago, Sweet said:

You are so negative always.  It’s gonna hurt you in the long run.

 

Am I? What exactly is there to be positive about? I'm long-term bullish on the United States, which I think you almost have to be, but what has happened in the recent past is unbelievable in stupidity and excess. We elected a FELON as our president. A man that has cheated on all his wives, encouraged an insurrection attempt, committed fraud and possibly rape, and overall is just a terrible human being. Our banks have lent stupidly, markets generally are the most overvalued in history, Treasury markets are screwed up, our fiscal deficit and national debt are at record levels, and Congress has checked out.

This stuff has consequences, and markets can change fast. They don't give a flying fuck how you feel, what you think, or how intimidating you are. It's a game that revolves around knowledge and long-term thinking.

 

And our country has been thinking and acting fucking stupid.

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Blake Hampton