Political Posts

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Do you have a link to it, Mike [ @cubsfan ], that you want to share?

 

 

Sure John - @flesh orginally posted this. I thought it was very well done.

 

 

[lnofeisone]

5 hours ago, LC said:

Ah, the siren sings yet again

I didn't expect these to work out this fast. I've shorted tesla in the past and always lost money. If markets open as low as they are now tomorrow, it will be the first time I made money on tesla short. 

[mcliu]

21 minutes ago, LC said:

 

100% agree.

 

People talk about things they are passionate about. Censoring the discussion only serves to make people feel like they cannot express themselves, which I think makes this community weaker. People should feel comfortable sharing their opinions-  especially about cheap stocks which will make us all wealthier!

Agreed! It is extremely rare on the internet to see intelligent people have intelligent conversations about complex issues such as politics. On most social media, it's either tribalism or bots or both or somehow degenerates into flame wars. Whereas most of the conversations here actually present highly articulate arguments from many sides.

[Hsmpanl]

43 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

100% , if you are a UAW member, you love this guy. Many, many working class people will as well.

I don’t disagree. At face value do what you want with tariffs but what kills me is how haphazardly they’re being rolled out and with constant changes. You want to apply tariffs be my guest, but be consistent with your messaging and the purpose behind them so businesses and consumers can adjust and make the investments you want them to make. We will get there eventually I’m sure.

[mcliu]

It makes tremendous sense to bring certain manufacturing back onshore.. but the way Trump is going about it is pretty insane. 

On the other hand, it seems like no other administration is even willing to tackle this issue. 

 

[dwy000]

50 minutes ago, kobesystem said:

My gut feeling is that the negative reaction to the tariffs is overblown and due to the following:

• Fear/Displeasure from those outside the US that previously-favorable trade imbalances are about to end (no one likes free lunch being taken away)
• Pro-globalist sentiment galvanizing against Trump and sympathizing with those outside the US, partially for the legitimate reason of not wanting a big shakeup to the economic status quo
• Cynics in and outside the US who enjoy fomenting the idea that these tariffs are creating economic chaos, and sincerely hope that they do

I don't blame those outside the US for hating this move at all. However, I think the two more genuine and reasonable reactions for US citizens are either a) I don't want this short-term pain and don't enjoy this feeling of economic chaos, but I have to admit the net effect for me could be positive or b) I don't mind the short-term pain because I have to admit it looks like we've been ripped off for years and this could have real long-term benefits.

How have we been ripped off?  We have trade deficits because we want tons of cheap goods that can't be made here for anywhere near those prices. And the US doesn't export manufactured goods because it's uncompetitive at it. So where's the ripoff?  

 

This will in no way change the trade imbalance. The US will never be globally competitive on manufacturing, nor will most of Europe or most developed countries. Our value is innovation, research and technology (use of, not making).  The idea that tariffs will onshore all kinds of manufacturing is just naive and false.  And that's even if the tariffs were stable and long term. This is simply going to make those cheap goods less cheap and change almost nothing (except the price)

 

It would help if there was some tangible strategy being deployed that tariffs were a part of but its not.  Its just like a drunk lurching down the street making no sense.

 

[Gregmal]

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

How have we been ripped off?  We have trade deficits because we want tons of cheap goods that can't be made here for anywhere near those prices. And the US doesn't export manufactured goods because it's uncompetitive at it. So where's the ripoff?  

 

The ripoff happened long ago when all the jobs were outsourced and everyone told them how great this would be for them.  Turns out - it destroyed communities and there was no regard for the displaced workers - none.  But a whole lot of other people got rich.

 

Now the government workers in DC are getting a taste of it - and turns out, they don't like it either.

Edited April 3, 2025 by cubsfan

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, mcliu said:

It makes tremendous sense to bring certain manufacturing back onshore.. but the way Trump is going about it is pretty insane. 

On the other hand, it seems like no other administration is even willing to tackle this issue. 

 

 

Bingo.

[dwy000]

Just now, cubsfan said:

 

The ripoff happened long ago when all the jobs were outsourced and everyone told them how great this would be for them.  Turn out - it destroyed communities and there was no regard for the displaced workers - none.  But a whole lot of other people got rich.

 

Now the government workers in DC are getting a taste of it - and turns out, they don't like it either.

What?  So the response to the loss of jobs from globalization is to raise prices on the very people impacted most?

 

The jobs are not coming back. And there's no plan for it, no messaging, no support, no management.  People are going to be pissed off and not understand why or what the end game is. 

[changegonnacome]

13 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

The US will never be globally competitive on manufacturing, nor will most of Europe or most developed countries. Our value is innovation, research and technology (use of, not making).  The idea that tariffs will onshore all kinds of manufacturing is just naive and false.  And that's even if the tariffs were stable and long term. This is simply going to make those cheap goods less cheap and change almost nothing (except the price)

 

Yep. Tariffs on Bangladesh/Vietnam are like a hedge fund manager fighting with his cleaning lady to get the right back to clean his own toilet.

 

It's retarded.

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep. Tariffs on Bangladesh/Vietnam are like a hedge fund manager fighting with his cleaning lady to get the right back to clean his own toilet.

 

It's retarded.

Instead of trying to onshore jobs that both suck and we will never be competitive at we ahould be investing in our strengths - innovation, research, new tech, software etc.  Because those are the high paying, value add jobs that are tough to replace with cheaper labor.  It's the whole reason China and every up and coming country is investing in those areas.  While we are now cutting research and education.  

  

[SharperDingaan]

Today the capital markets learnt that Orange Boy isn't just trash talking .... he's doing it for real. If you thought this was bad, it is going to get a lot worse in the next month as auto starts laying off .... and the plummeting foreign sales of US companies start to hit earnings season. Inflation is bonus.

 

Orange Boy isn't going to change until Americans make him; the honeymoon is over, and after today ... the bill collectors ain't gonna be shy. Sadly, a lot of Americans are going to get badly hurt .... something to keep in mind when you're raking in the short-sale gains over the next few weeks.

 

SD

 

[Spekulatius]

If I buy some thing in Target  or Walmart, I don’t get ripped off, even though I have a trade deficit with Walmart. I receive goods and services for  the little green piece of cotton paper I am giving them. Same it is between countries.

If tariffs were that great, why don’t we have tariffs between  US states  to balance their trade balances. Why not between counties, cities, zip codes? I sort of hate the idea that a town north of me with many stores and business my be ripping me off?

 

Anyways they used the formula here to calculate tariffs. The idea is to balance the trade with each country.

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

 That will be an interesting experiment for sure.  Might be time to read up on Smoot Hawley

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act

[whiskybravo]

26 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

The jobs are not coming back. And there's no plan for it, no messaging, no support, no management.  People are going to be pissed off and not understand why or what the end game is. 

Why do you assume jobs won’t come back? After all, quotas in the 1980s incentivized the Japanese to invest in new automobile factories in the South.

Edited April 3, 2025 by whiskybravo

[dwy000]

11 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

Why do you assume jobs won’t come back? After all, quotas in the 1980s incentivized the Japanese to invest in new automobile factories in the South.

Because in a global economy nobody is going to invest billions in uncompetitive, high cost jobs that are only held in place by current policy.  Even with permanent tariffs, nobody is building plants to make clothing or toys here.  

 

I'm actually more upset that I can't access those BYD cars that seem better than anything we have at 1/3 the price.  We are effectively subsidizing and overpaying low tech labor jobs while depriving Americans of better products.  We are becoming the copycat instead of the innovator. 

 

Mostly I'm shocked at who is arguing for this.  It's shocking to hear the GOP as the new socialist, protectionist party over free markets.  When did the roles change?

Edited April 3, 2025 by dwy000

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

You think I that I add nothing with my posts, that's fine, so why would I be posting?  I post an idea that goes up 150%,

You’ve been one of the most useful (and profitable) posters that I follow here, so thank you. 

[Cigarbutt]

Growing trade deficits is an issue.

How to deal with this?

What negative (unintended) consequences can occur?

In the last few weeks, there was a question about the method used to define tariff levels. Now we know. 

Here's some info from a quite balanced source which ranks high in factual reporting:

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-countries-stack-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs

Global trade since WW2 has been subject to an unsustainable path which is getting closer to price discovery, now with some catalysts in place.

As far as Canada-USA bilateral trade, on a net basis, both countries have largely benefited and the 'free-trade' contracts have been negotiated and venues exist to deal with frictions so it's hard to understand the intent behind the offensive noise.

-----

A way to appreciate the trading-capital imbalance is from the saving-consumption point of view (this was widely discussed here years ago). The US consumes more now versus later and many other significant trading partners consume less now versus later.

For sure, tariffs, as presently stated , with expected retaliation and all will help decrease domestic consumption in the US and potentially help with the balance but, in general, is decreasing trade this way a good idea?

Is it time to save more?

In personal relationships, it's been said to focus on personal growth and self-improvement instead of forcing change upon others, especially if sustainability is a determimant factor. Countries are different with the significant component of power struggles but there's got to be a place for (collective) self-awareness?

-----

And yes, under certain scenarios, some bonds could do really well going forward?

 

[changegonnacome]

 

The ghosts of the old (maybe future) Republican party....calling it like it is.....tax hikes....and deeply regressive ones at that.

 

[Gamecock-YT]

3 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:

Is Trump a plant for the Democratic Party? Did you see the results of the Wisconsin and Florida elections? The GOP should be very worried about 2026. Throw in a recession and it’ll be a blue wave. How long till congress turns on him? How much further do their portfolios have to drop in addition to the increasing likelihood that they’ll get ducked in the midterms?

 

I'm amazed that so many of you think there's actually going to be midterms or another presidential election given this government invoking 'trumped up' emergency powers to get their agenda through. What and who is to stop them invoking some war time powers/national emergency act to prevent elections going forward? 

 

[LC]

8 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Mostly I'm shocked at who is arguing for this.  It's shocking to hear the GOP as the new socialist, protectionist party over free markets.  When did the roles change?

 

The poor, dumb American minority wants vengeance. They don't want a better standard of living, they don't want peace in Ukraine nor America, they don't want to invest in their communities or country. They just want vengeance and the current GOP reflects this.

[sleepydragon]

Yup. I followed @Dinar into coke. Made some money. I didn’t know he got banned 30 days, nor did i see his posts that triggered it. 

Edited April 3, 2025 by sleepydragon

[LC]

1 minute ago, sleepydragon said:

on another board, the admin recently introduced a new feature: if a user is added by more than N (N=3-5) people to their “ignore list”, that user is banned from the site. That’s a better rule, since the decision is made by a group of people instead of one person 

 

What happens when a few people collude to ban people they disagree with?

[Red Lion]

1 minute ago, LC said:

 

What happens when a few people collude to ban people they disagree with?

The group becomes a useless echo chamber is what. 

[mcliu]

14 minutes ago, LC said:

 

The poor, dumb American minority wants vengeance. They don't want a better standard of living, they don't want peace in Ukraine nor America, they don't want to invest in their communities or country. They just want vengeance and the current GOP reflects this.

You probably don’t want to manufacture cheap shoes or toys etc but what is the case against domestic manufacturing of technical products like solar panels or batteries or ships or semiconductors or pharmaceuticals, etc? So what if it cost a bit more than outsourcing it? Those retained jobs will also employ tons of highly skilled workers.
 

Also, manufacturing itself is a difficult task, once you lose the work force and institutional knowledge, it’s difficult to get it back. There’s also the flywheel aspect, the more manufacturing you do, the better you get at it, more manufacturing talent is created etc..