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A hedged farewell (signing off but reserving the right to return)


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Hey guys,

 

As I've alluded to in a few posts, I've been on garden leave for the past month or so while normal garden leave activities of world travel and the like have been banned. 

 

I've used this to exercise, hang out with my wife and dog, and mostly research and punt around real estate and other asset-oriented securities. The time for doing this all day and night and writing about it has come to an end, as I need to prep for a new job that requires me to learn about another asset class outside my existing knowledge base and will certainly take up all of my time for the foreseeable future.

 

I also have been a bit...obsessive over these past few weeks given what I see as a once in a long time [i won't say a lifetime] opportunity set where commercial real estate has experienced a broad based de-rating and securities more generally have exhibited a lot of wacky volatile trading where one could buy even some very nice non RE businesses quite cheaply, then sell/trim them as they sharply re-rated. I could be wrong and the Depression 2.0 crowd can point out Pupil in the soup line when he loses his job and his RE investments go to zero, and use my posts as an example/case studies in the future. I think this will go down as one of the best opportunities to have purchased high quality bricks and sticks [though am by no means calling a bottom] so we'll see how all those things work out in 1,2,5 years.

 

I've avoided all out disaster thus far, but make no mistake, I'm down a large but not entirely crippling 25% or so this year after underperforming a little last year, so you all can feel free to point out "hey that guy pupil disappeared after some of his names blew up...classic". Being good at my job is important to maintain inflows into the portfolio, which i think is well set up for the future after using this sell-off and volatility to diversify/upgrade/etc.

 

To continue to be obsessive with PA investment and COBF posting while ramping up a new job will have an undue negative impact on the other things in my life (health/family/etc.). Simply not enough hours and I owe it to the new folks who hired me to focus on that. I like it here a little too much for my career's and wife's own good and my income statement and career trajectory remains far more important than my balance sheet and personal enjoyment from shooting the shit with you all.

 

I've really enjoyed COBF over the past 9 years and will continue to have a presence, albeit much reduced.

 

It is possible, but not confirmed at this time that I will not be able to post at all for compliance reasons. I hope you all have found the flurry of posts over this time (and back further) helpful; I have learned a lot from all of you.

 

I'll check PM's occasionally and my anonymous email is thefinancepupil@gmail.com; I'm in the DC area for beers and investing talks if/when normalcy returns.

 

It is self important to pen a goodbye letter of sorts, but I'm a self important guy!

 

Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own
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Cheers buddy, enjoy the new gig! Hopefully the compliance requirements are not too burdensome.  ;D

+1 and will definitely take you up on the beers in DC (Big Board seems appropriate. "As co-owner Eric Flannery explains, the fluctuating beer prices come from a special algorithm which “changes depending on how many people are here, what day of the week it is, what type of beers are being ordered.” But the bottom line, he says, “is the more type of beer that somebody orders, the lower the price goes.”)

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Pupil,

 

Sad to see you leave, but happy to anoint myself the de facto Cob real estate guy.  Like you said, I am a self important guy as well!  Thank you so much for all these awesome RE posts recently.  Great hunting ground for new ideas. 

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Good luck!  You know you can also just carve out one-hour a week to read and post.  Treat it like any other book, article, show, etc.  I know it can become compulsive at times, but that's why getting away from it for a while might be a good idea, and then when you come back, allocate just an hour or two a week at most.  Cheers!

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