Spekulatius Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Four days? I don't think I'd eat my cat after four days, I like her too much. Where did this anecdote come from? massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days. It wasn't four days. And the guy's name was Jack Ma. ::) Cats taste like rabbits, I have heard. At least that’s what my grandpa told me, based on his culinarily experiences in WW2.
Jurgis Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Four days? I don't think I'd eat my cat after four days, I like her too much. Where did this anecdote come from? massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days. It wasn't four days. And the guy's name was Jack Ma. ::) Cats taste like rabbits, I have heard. At least that’s what my grandpa told me, based on his culinarily experiences in WW2. OT. My step-grandpa was in Gulag and told that cats taste like crap. Dogs taste better. I think that's mostly true. Carnivore meat is supposedly not tasty and that's one of the reasons it's not eaten. Humans on the other hand...
Investor20 Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 NIH guidelines on prophylaxis for Covid: https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/overview/prevention-of-sars-cov-2/ The COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel (the Panel) recommends against the use of any agents for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), except in a clinical trial (AIII). .................................. "Any agents": Vaccines included? Do they mean that vaccines will only reduce severe symptoms but wont stop getting infected? See below. https://www.businessinsider.com/who-says-no-evidence-coronavirus-vaccine-prevent-transmissions-2020-12?op=1 "The World Health Organization's chief scientist, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, has urged people to be cautious with their behavior even after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. Swaminathan told a Monday briefing there was not yet enough evidence from vaccine trials "to be confident that it's going to prevent people from actually getting the infection and therefore being able to pass it on."
racemize Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 The reality is that they need to kickstart the rebound so Biden can not only get credit for curing covid and cancer, but also saving the economy. Especially those of deep blue states. Notice how the news outlets are already declaring it "Biden's $2,000 stimulus checks"? Odd, because unless I am mistaken, one guy called for $2,000 checks, and it wasnt Joe, it wasnt Nancy, and it definitely wasnt Mitch. Pelosi didn’t ask for $2k checks?
John Hjorth Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days. Muscleman, Source, please.
SharperDingaan Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days. Muscleman, Source, please. https://fortune.com/2021/01/11/china-covid-hebei-beijing-political-moat/ China has placed the capital of Hebei province—Shijiazhuang, a city of 11 million—under lockdown as the city enters “wartime mode” to combat a fresh outbreak of COVID-19 that has infected over 300 people. 22M according to the NYT, as of 4 days ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/world/asia/china-covid-lockdown.html SD
Read the Footnotes Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 Is it just me or has this thread completely declined to the point that 95% of the posts are posts by conspiracy theorists and those who try to rebut them? Not that discrediting biased or ignorant posts is not valuable, it absolutely is, but seriously what the heck? At times this thread has been very valuable to all but the conspiracy theorist COVID deniers and anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers, and now it primarily seems like a mouthpiece for some pretty wacky ideas that are far out of the mainstream. You can dismiss my concern by saying that some people are simply pushing a story of doubt, or that other people are merely repeating narratives that sow doubt but that would overlook the fact that sowing doubt is the primary tool of disinformation.
muscleman Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 Annoying thing about China is their official data makes it impossible to tell whether this is just an extreme pre-emptive measure to a handful of cases and it will be contained in a matter of weeks or whether despite their propoganda they are going to suffer the same third wave as everywhere else and face months of restrictions until vaccines kick in. no one knows but we can get an educated guess from its policies that just tightened restrictions on its own citizens from entry into China since January 8th. Recently there has been lots of Chinese citizens who got negative COVID tests yet denied entry because “they can’t show why their trip back to China is urgent.” There was even a guy whose relative died and he said his trip is urgent so he can attend the funeral. The Chinese embassy’s response: “that person is already dead so there is nothing you can do about it. We don’t think it is urgent.”
Cigarbutt Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 In case somebody is interested: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522 Warning: Not exactly as entertaining as a NY Post article. TL;DR: -"They" use 'models' and some of the underlying assumptions are questionable but there are a few interesting messages (absent a significant and unexpected mutation pattern). Their review of previous knowledge about other CVs is very strong. -This virus was very unusual in the sense that it entered a globally immunologically naive (virgin) population. -CV is likely to become endemic and is likely to concentrate in younger cohorts. -The vaccines are likely to speed up the process to endemicity. -The authors suggest the possibility of (eventually) using other waves of seasonal vaccines to older and other at-risk populations and to allow the virus to spread in the young, an interesting possibility based on the specific attributes of Covid-19 vs other CVs, the flu etc. once the population is no longer naive (immunologically speaking). There is still a lot to learn but virologists are bound to become nobodies again during 2021.
Viking Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 Some good news... ——————————— ...Ms. Home is part of a growing army of volunteers who have pushed Britain’s vaccination effort harder and faster than anyone expected. Hundreds of village halls, recreation centres, churches and community clinics have been turned into makeshift vaccination sites and tens of thousands of volunteers have manned phone banks and gone door-to-door to make sure that as many people as possible get their jab. ...If the current pace continues, government officials believe that everyone over 50 – roughly 32 million people – could receive their first dose by the end of March and that all adults could be vaccinated by the end of June, three months earlier than expected. Britain’s mass volunteer effort sets blistering pace in COVID-19 vaccination effort - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-mass-volunteer-effort-puts-uk-ahead-of-schedule-on-vaccine-rollout/
mattee2264 Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 Perhaps the reason the UK is managing vaccinations at a decent speed is because we have a national health service so everything can be coordinated a lot more easily and politics has not been allowed to interfere with the allocations. Of course population density and a smaller population size probably help as well. And also we have the Oxford vaccine which USA passed on which is a lot easier to distribute.
muscleman Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days. Muscleman, Source, please. You are asking for sources from a country with no freedom of speech. I am unable to provide much for you.
muscleman Posted January 18, 2021 Posted January 18, 2021 https://twitter.com/_HannahRitchie/status/1350844297621463044/photo/1 If we get a similar pattern in the US, which I think will, that's not good for the market. Tighten your belt for a sharp pull back.
thowed Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 I found this presentation from respected HK activist investor David Webb utterly fascinating. I don't know enough to agree or disagree, but I welcome an alternative perspective from someone who appears not to be a lunatic. https://webb-site.com/codocs/DMW201204.pdf
Cigarbutt Posted January 20, 2021 Posted January 20, 2021 I found this presentation from respected HK activist investor David Webb utterly fascinating. I don't know enough to agree or disagree, but I welcome an alternative perspective from someone who appears not to be a lunatic. https://webb-site.com/codocs/DMW201204.pdf That is interesting and favorable for constructive discussions. The perspective covers many aspects that have been discussed here. Perhaps Sweden should be compared to Nordic neighbors instead of the UK. Also, the "laissez-faire" strategy remains, to this day, ill defined. Places where 'minimal' restrictions were applied typically showed relatively similar declines in mobility and social interactions and typically reported similar economic declines (costs). It has been very difficult to assess the cost of heterogeneity of response to various suggested or mandated restrictions. A few super-spreaders could negate the adaptive behaviors adopted by thousands. ----- The following is submitted as food for thought. (Relevant references for those interested found below) When evaluating the value (cost vs benefit) of various interventions, the concept of quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) can be used. It is felt these days that developed societies deem 50k per QALY to be an acceptable threshold. Using the numbers reported by Mr. Webb and others, it can be guessed that people who died of Covid each (on average) lost about 4 to 5 QALYs. One needs to guess also the QALYs lost as a consequence of surviving Covid even if it meant hospitalization, intensive care unit stay, respiratory support etc. Using the 50k per QALY 'benchmark', one comes up to a significant amount of potential funds (per capita) that could have been 'invested' to prevent QALY loss (per Covid casualty). For those who say that something like half of deaths were half dead anyways (basically true but you have to remember that we're all dead in the long run), under present social compromise, a massive amount of healthcare dollars are presently 'invested' in the very sick and the very old with very little to show for it. i don't have studies to prove it but it is safe to say that the investment of healthcare dollars presently 'invested' in older and sicker patients is much much more than 50k per QALY.. Below is an example of this application (i'm more confortable with joint replacement numbers but the study is interesting for many reasons). Basically, it's about the cost-benefit related to prostate cancer and various approaches (i gather that Mr. Webb announced in 2020 that he had metastatic prostate cancer and the use of this specific study is only coincidence). Whether socialized or privatized (anyways in the US, Medicare has become basically the only game in town for the 65+ population and related 'investments' in the last few years of life), the idea is to figure out what the mutualized payer is ready to pay vs the expected benefit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year https://www.nice.org.uk/Media/Default/guidance/LGB10-Briefing-20150126.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7026676/
Liberty Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/dr-fauci-says-he-took-no-pleasure-in-contradicting-former-p.html
mattee2264 Posted January 21, 2021 Posted January 21, 2021 Interesting to see what following the science means in practice. I don't think scientists would allow the kind of hospitalization and death rate that America has tolerated over the last 10 months. And with mutant strains coming and vaccinations likely to take a while to kick in I don't see how the USA can avoid the same restrictions being applied in Europe.
Spekulatius Posted January 22, 2021 Posted January 22, 2021 Interesting to see what following the science means in practice. I don't think scientists would allow the kind of hospitalization and death rate that America has tolerated over the last 10 months. And with mutant strains coming and vaccinations likely to take a while to kick in I don't see how the USA can avoid the same restrictions being applied in Europe. I expect we muddle through with a bit more guidance from the top. Health is a state matter and I don’t think Biden is going to mess with this much. In my opinion, Biden‘s main job is now getting the vaccine in as many arms as quickly as possible and provide the state the resources to keep essential parts like schools open (testing access and funding is safety measures is essential) and hospitals running.
StubbleJumper Posted January 22, 2021 Posted January 22, 2021 Interesting to see what following the science means in practice. I don't think scientists would allow the kind of hospitalization and death rate that America has tolerated over the last 10 months. And with mutant strains coming and vaccinations likely to take a while to kick in I don't see how the USA can avoid the same restrictions being applied in Europe. I expect we muddle through with a bit more guidance from the top. Health is a state matter and I don’t think Biden is going to mess with this much. In my opinion, Biden‘s main job is now getting the vaccine in as many arms as quickly as possible and provide the state the resources to keep essential parts like schools open (testing access and funding is safety measures is essential) and hospitals running. In the US, there's not a great many valuable options at this stage. As of today, the US is up to 18 million vaccinated, and that is increasing by about 1 million per day. There are about 50 million Americans age 65 or higher, so by about February 21st, the overwhelming majority of them should have had the opportunity to get a vaccination if they want one. That group alone is about half of the hospitalizations and more than 80% of the deaths. The tone about covid will change significantly by some time in March when the deaths virtually stop and the hospitals begin to empty. The most valuable thing that the president could do at this time would be to try to convince the seniors to lock themselves down for a few weeks until their turn for a vaccination comes. SJ
Spekulatius Posted January 22, 2021 Posted January 22, 2021 Interesting to see what following the science means in practice. I don't think scientists would allow the kind of hospitalization and death rate that America has tolerated over the last 10 months. And with mutant strains coming and vaccinations likely to take a while to kick in I don't see how the USA can avoid the same restrictions being applied in Europe. I expect we muddle through with a bit more guidance from the top. Health is a state matter and I don’t think Biden is going to mess with this much. In my opinion, Biden‘s main job is now getting the vaccine in as many arms as quickly as possible and provide the state the resources to keep essential parts like schools open (testing access and funding is safety measures is essential) and hospitals running. In the US, there's not a great many valuable options at this stage. As of today, the US is up to 18 million vaccinated, and that is increasing by about 1 million per day. There are about 50 million Americans age 65 or higher, so by about February 21st, the overwhelming majority of them should have had the opportunity to get a vaccination if they want one. That group alone is about half of the hospitalizations and more than 80% of the deaths. The tone about covid will change significantly by some time in March when the deaths virtually stop and the hospitals begin to empty. The most valuable thing that the president could do at this time would be to try to convince the seniors to lock themselves down for a few weeks until their turn for a vaccination comes. SJ Seniors above 65 will not be vaccinated completely by late February , not even close. You are assuming that all the vaccines go to seniors for example, but that’s not the case. Health care workers come first and then several other groups (first responders etc, military, state & country workers). The order of vaccination again differs from state to state. At the current rate, I would guess that a 65 year old would get vaccinated perhaps in Summer. I personally like the rule to have health care workers on the front lines first, then people over 80, then 65 or etc. that’s what is basically happening in Germany I think, although there, the rollout is even slower than in the US. Complex rules ar likely counterproductive and some seem outright ridicolous. For example in my state, there is a discussion to add smoking as pre-existing condition which would prioritize them over non-smokers. Really? I guess I should start smoking a cigarette a day to become eligible quicker.
cubsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Posted January 22, 2021 ^ Yup - this rollout is being completely botched. Amazing after all the screaming for the vaccine. Local doctors tell you that you are eligible, but can't help you get the vaccine. It's a circus here in Illinois.
Cigarbutt Posted January 22, 2021 Posted January 22, 2021 ^ Yup - this rollout is being completely botched. Amazing after all the screaming for the vaccine. Local doctors tell you that you are eligible, but can't help you get the vaccine. It's a circus here in Illinois. Facts-motivated post submitted for 'analysis'. First dose given as % of total population in Illinois: 4.3% First dose given as % of total population in USA: 4.5% These %s are more than twice what is being achieved in Canada (and in my area where state, free markets, communities and individuals try to cooperate). You (or the ones to whom your collective trust has been allocated) must be doing something right during this challenging ramp-up phase. If looking for a circus, take a look at the comments on a site i've been following (with some participation): https://wirepoints.org/illinois-covid-19-crisis-daily-data-update-wirepoints/ Do you realize that (forgetting sunk costs) that Illinois is turning the corner (at least as far as Covid and herd immunity are concerned)?
Liberty Posted January 22, 2021 Posted January 22, 2021 Today’s big news was not entirely unexpected: There was never any plan for a federal response to the coronavirus pandemic. "What we're inheriting is so much worse than we could have imagined," said President Biden's coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients in a call with reporters. Another official said: “There is nothing for us to rework. We are going to have to build everything from scratch." https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/january-21-2021
Gregmal Posted January 22, 2021 Posted January 22, 2021 Heather is an oaf. Typical academic liberal elite hack. Otherwise, good to see we are getting excuses on day 1.
ERICOPOLY Posted January 22, 2021 Posted January 22, 2021 Heather is an oaf. Typical academic liberal elite hack. Otherwise, good to see we are getting excuses on day 1. Politics is banned right?
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