muscleman

One of my neighbors accepted an offer to be a staff engineer in Coinbase. The offer was 200k base salary+450k stocks per year. Two months later the Coinbase stock went from 190 to 58 so his expected pay check shrunk a lot. The stocks will be given to him at 12 months on the job. By that time, I think the stock will likely be 20 a share, so his big pay bump will likely go from expected 650k a year to 240k.

It was done secretly without announcements, from early to mid 2008, just when the market needs liquidity the most, which makes total sense LOL. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAST This time around, the scale they plan to do is FAR bigger than in 2008.

I am seeing signs that Bonds are bottoming here, though I am not fully convinced yet. Historically when QE stops, yields go down and stocks go down. I am not sure this time though. 90 bn per month QT is the largest scale QT ever. Last time they did this was in 2008 from Jan to June. 300 Bn QT from 2008 Jan to June was sufficient to crash the market. Right now we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg because QT hasn't even started at the warm up level of 47 bn per month.

Everyone knows the rate hike will be 0.5 instead of 0.75%, which is nothing interesting. I was looking for whether he is adjusting the amount of QT, and it wasn't clear to me. I know previously he said the fed would do 90 bn per month QT. Does the following bullets say that the FED intends to do 30+17.5 bn QT per month? https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220504a1.htm Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in the calendar month of June that exceeds a monthly cap of $30 billion. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap. Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in the calendar month of June that exceeds a monthly cap of $17.5 billion.

The media has become a propoganda machine for Brandon. Whatever he did has to be justified.

And when Brendon finally decides to ban Russia oil imports into the US, he turns to Iran to buy oil..... What a brilliant leader.

This is not correct. China is OVERPAYING Russia for the oil, wheat etc, according to a few recent announcements. The goal seems to explicitly put oil onto the fire. I think they believe this puts China in a superior position when the US sanction is not helpful without China's collaboration. The strategy is definitely working, and Biden is reportedly begging president Xi to help. I think China wants to use this strategy to get some good concession from the US.

Some anecdotal evidence, I think the company earnings are at the peak for the next two years. For those value fishers, I think you will step into a value trap when you look at last year's earning. I recently changed job, and got a much higher total compensation. I see lots and lots of coworkers preparing to change jobs to get bigger pay. Inflation is pressing them to do so too. Every week, there are key employees leaving in various teams. Companies are forced to pay much more to get new employees to replace the ones leaving.

buying a bank is extremely tricky, not to mention a bank in Russia, where equity financing is viewed as free capital. March 2020 is quite different from now. In March 2020 we have Fed lowering rates and doing QE on a historical scale. Right now we have FED wrapping up QE, inflation, and raising rates. I think the 12 year bull market has ended in November 2021. We are in a period when equity returns will be very low for multiple years.

I don't think so. Russia's attack on Ukrain is like another WWII level of war, nothing close to the gulf war. Chinese army is not as good as Russia so it will be another WWII level. This kind of level is not going to hurt Taiwan.

I do care about the index because the contrast of still high index vs tanking individual stocks along is a pretty solid topping condition. Just like what happened in 2000.

I disagree that holding cash is better right now. Holding cash is only better when the fed reacts aggressively. Right now they are just chickens. They are no Paul Volckers who are willing to jack up rates to 20% to engineer a recession to cool down inflation. Therefore the only thing that would happen is that another bubble is quickly brewing while the stock bubble is bursting. There is too much cash around earning 0 interest and the cash holders are not going to tolerate this for too long. If I had to guess, I think commodities and housing is where the hot money will be going.

inflation / fed raising rates have been pretty obvious since 6 months ago. It takes a while to build the top before the quick descent starts. We are in April 2000. Still two more years of bearish market

I do think timing matters. "Buy when there is blood" is still far from now. This is more like April 2000. 2 years from the bottom.

Hard assets + good debt is the best inflation protection.

I think there is a centralized clearing system that also backs lending out shares so if a broker fails, that clearing system will jointly pay up for it. Even if you don't lend out your shares, if Schwab goes chp11, you still may not get all your money back if you exceed SIPC+insurance limits.

There is a currency called USDT, issued by a startup called Circle. It is essentially the digital dollar. They are going IPO in Q1 this year. You may want to follow that.

This is a repeat of the 2000 dot com bubble top. First we get a rotation of tech stocks down value stocks up. Then all stocks go down together. The bottom will be in 2 years later.

Didn't Bruce Berkowitz say, the fed is an excellent hedge fund? I would be curious on inflation adjusted numbers. For nominal values, this chart is not nearly as impressive as Venezuela's stock market.

Looking at historical caps from 2009-now, cap rates have been steadily decreasing. In the Seattle area, 4-4.5% cap is the new norm. It makes no sense to me because banks are lending at 4%, so there is really no room for cash flow. But yikes.... Those big Canadian pension funds are coming here because cap rates are 2% in Toronto, and in their eyes, it is so freaking cheap here. Regarding mortgage rates.. If you check history, every time QE stopped, rates DECLINED. This is counter intuitive but every time QE ends, the stock market crashes, and traders fly to safety and bought bonds. So my view is not rates staying where they are, but rates stay or go lower. Right now my base case is the repeat of the 1970s. Check rates and housing prices going from 1976-1980. Rate went from 6% to 13% while housing price doubled. I think that will repeat this time. My bull case is declining rate and even bigger price hikes.

non-recourse. A broker just told me that a very large Canadian pension fund is aggressively buying all kinds of real estate in the US that they can touch. He just sold them a piece of 4 acre land for 1.7M and they plan to build a self storage on it. I think after all the central banks printed like hell in the last 18 months, and with interest rate still insanely low, we will see a massive price hike in real assets. The stock market will repeat the 2000 top and when it crashes, there will be even more money competing for a return in the real assets.

Up about 18% in the stocks account. Up about 60% regarding my real estate down payments. I've been aggressively moving money out of stock account to buy real estate since Biden got elected as I believe we are getting a repeat of the 1970s when the stock market would go flat and real estate would go through the roof, so I wanted to go all in on real estate but did not find that many bargains. I don't have any stocks right now and I maintain the view of the repeat of a dot com bubble top. When it crashes, I think even more money will flow to RE. Moving forward I expect housing market in the US to go up by 20% a year for the next 3 years. If this happens, my real estate down payments would go up by 80% a year for the next 3 years while collecting a small amount of cash flow.

With this administration throwing trillions around every year, cheap 30 yr fixed non-recourse mortgage with just 25% down, there is no doubt that the best investment idea for 2022-2024 at least is to buy rental houses. I don't think 99.9% stock pickers could beat an average real estate investor in 2022-2024. You need to understand your submarket though.

Got it. Thank you! I guess that's probably the case here. I am not a big player. What mtg banker do you recommend?

I talked to a CBRE lender who does Fannie and Freddie commercial and he said they do 30 yr fixed but the rate is like 4.5%. The 10 year fixed loan, 30 yr amortization loan has the rate of 3.75. It must be paid back or refinanced after 10 years. Are you saying that Ginnie Mae can do 40 yr fixed for 3.5%?