Jump to content


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited


Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

StubbleJumper's Achievements


Collaborator (7/14)

  • Conversation Starter
  • Dedicated
  • First Post
  • Collaborator
  • Posting Machine Rare

Recent Badges



  1. Yes, if it does IPO, we will have a ready-made evaluation framework for FFH management because they just took it private three years ago! So if they bought AGT for $XXX and three years later they issue shares we'll be able to declare at least a short-term victory or defeat based on whether the valuation has grown adequately... SJ
  2. There's a good reason for that: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-fed-co-op-agt-foods-to-build-canola-crushing-facility-in- saskatchewan/ AGT is partnering on a CAD$2 billion canola crush plant and biodiesel plant. So, I am guessing that AGT will need to find its 49% of the capex from somewhere. SJ
  3. I don't know much about packaging, but it strikes me as a pretty moat-less industry. SJ
  4. Well, that's an interesting question, isn't it? The X-D just means US$10 in our pocket. But, what of the Q4 that should be released around Valentine's Day (or Superbowl)? What kind of adjusted BV do you think that FFH will report? After adjusting for Digit, the SIB, and the US$300m in MTM gains that @Viking shared with us earlier in the month, should be easily US$600, even after the dividend right? Well, today the market has it at US$515. That's what, ~0.85x book? Not sure how much steam will come off when those numbers come out. If steam comes off, do we end up back at 0.75x book? SJ
  5. FFH is trading at US$508 as I type. I kind of wish that the tender offer had been even more oversubscribed! The ~10% of shares that they didn't take up in the tender look like they'll be more profitable than those take up! SJ
  6. Fascinating. So, the implication is that because trading in a particular security was restricted for a brief period of time, the value of that security was permanently destroyed and therefore a compensatory payment required. We now have a new legal principle: value delayed is value denied. SJ
  7. It will be interesting to see what FFH has done with its cash and fixed income portfolio. My sense is that they'll be waiting for rates to rise a bit more before making meaningful changes to duration, but there will at least be some slightly better return opportunities for the short-term investments. At this point, perhaps two-year treasuries are the compromise position that delivers some yield while allowing the long treasuries to return to sane prices. Even reinvesting $5b into the 2-yr at current rates would probably bump interest income by $25m/yr or so. It still doesn't take you to the 3%+ that you'd like to see, but every bit helps.... SJ
  8. It's been a good month to have a value investing orientation. Can't belly-ache too much these days! SJ
  9. I am mostly happy with out it played out, except that I sold some BRK to make space to buy FFH to exploit the tender. So, I made ~10% on the FFH, but in the meantime BRK has skyrocketed ~10% over the past month! After repurchasing the BRK shares with my tender proceeds, I haven't made much money on that portion of my tender. I'd have been in the same position, more or less, if I had just sat on my ass! Oh well, even if it didn't work out this time, I guess that's the sort of bet that I should be happy to take as often as possible (a bet that BRK won't soar 10% in a particular month!). I did make a bit of beer money on some of the other shares that I purchased specifically to tender.... SJ
  10. No, you are right. It's mainly about the size the buy-back relative to the daily volume and market cap. FFH was attempting to repurchase a boatload of shares in percentage terms and it doesn't have enormous daily volume. It would take months to repurchase that many shares through a NCIB with an average daily volume of 60k and a 25% limit. 2m shares divided by 25% x 60k/day = ~130 trading days? SJ
  11. No, there are also stock tenders for US companies all of the time, and many of those are also Dutch auction processes. When a US tender is announced, it's the same process for shareholders. You need to download the filing off of EDGAR instead of SEDAR, read the general provisions and then carefully read the income tax treatment. My conclusion for most of those US tenders is that I am better to exploit them using an registered retirement account because they are exempt from any sort of US withholding tax or income tax under the Canada-US Tax Treaty. If you don't use a retirement account, then you end up screwing around to make a declaration under Section 302 or 303, which is paperwork that I don't really need in my life. All of that to say, FFH did something completely normal and common, but in this case it involved Canadian tax law instead of US. SJ
  12. I don't see a press release for the annual dividend yet. Maybe after the close of markets..... SJ
  13. Certainly the news releases did not make any mention of it, but usually @Daphne is spot-on. SJ
  14. Whether Digit gets booked in Q4 or Q1, it will be a large paper gain which will juice the EPS number. @Daphne has also suggested that FFH might book a gain of ~US$450m on the Odyssey transaction, and that one did definitely close in Q4. So, whether it all comes in Q4 or whether it appears in the next couple of consecutive quarters, there will be considerable paper gains appearing in the EPS numbers in the near future. It'll make the EPS, ROE and BV numbers look considerably better, but once again it will be important to look at the quarterly earnings with a discerning eye as quality of earnings will be a bit questionable. The creation of value from both of those transactions occurred a few years ago, not in Q4. That creation of value is definitely of credit to management over the past 5 years or so, but it doesn't really reflect on what they actually did in 2021. SJ
  15. Entirely possible. That's the market. At this point, I would suggest that people pay attention to Prem. He told us that the share price was bat-shit crazy 18 months ago and then put US$150m of his own money on the table. Then last fall, he told us that the share price was bat-shit crazy and bought a pile of total return swaps. Then this fall he told us that the share price was bat-shit crazy and he borrowed a bunch of money sold a piece of Odyssey to finance a tender for a shit-tonne of shares. Is anyone still doubting whether he's serious? SJ
  • Create New...