Coronavirus

[Investor20]

 

Can vaccinated people still spread COVID-19? Here’s what we know

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2021/01/14/can-vaccinated-people/

 

From above article "Meanwhile, Oxford’s vaccine was 68% effective in stopping symptomatic cases and 28% effective in stopping asymptomatic cases. That result came after the second dose: certainly not as good, but still better than nothing. "

 

Actually there were RCTs done for Ivermectin for stopping infection (Prophylaxis).  A meta-analysis is provided in the report in the website below.

 

https://www.e-bmc.co.uk/      (Page 14)

 

Moderate certainty evidence suggests that ivermectin prophylaxis among health care workers and COVID-19 contacts probably reduces

the risk of COVID-19 infection by about 88% (4 studies, 851 participants; RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.18; 4.3% vs 34.5% contracted COVID-19).

 

Considering the funding into Ivermectin vs Vaccine, IMO they could have studied the transmission more for vaccines if they wanted to.

 

For discussion only.  Not a suggestion for any treatment.  Please consult your physician for any treatment.

 

[Cigarbutt]

@Investor20

 

A ‘short’ report could be well done (peer reviewed by team producing report) and could be ‘worth’ disseminating to the investment ‘community’. Still, that report is only one input and even if it may contain determinant content, it is still one input.

 

The years of life lost study you refer to was IMO worth publication. Now, how will it survive ‘community’ review? There are clear limitations (which are described in the report and others) and an easy argument could be built that the confidence interval for the reported result could be as large as the number itself. Please note that i agree with the direction of the submitted conclusion.

 

FWIW, i’m familiar with the main author and have benefitted from some of his previous publications. One of his fundamental interests is the importance of community bonding.. (as well as end-of-life care and free speech). There may be a difference between ideal and reasonable.

 

For the ivermectin part, this is still work in progress. This specific process, unfortunately, is tainted by the same potential deep flaws that affect the Covid-and-various-supplements narratives, with ideas starting from hunches and jumping to conclusions, with the potential for huge (and costly) mistakes. If (fundamentally) interested:

 

The evidence is indeed low grade and the strategy deployed by proponents is deeply questionable.

 

Recently, reference was made to a potentially useful drug: colchicine. Without going into data that is still not widely available, the ‘headline’ numbers reported are not surviving too well deeper analysis and peer review. The path between an idea and its application is often a very long and difficult one.

 

When one feels like losing a game, a potential outcome is to complain about (or question) the rules of the game. That’s fine. You can also try to up your game. Good luck.

Spartansaver is right though. There must be something better to do.

[Investor20]

@Investor20

 

A ‘short’ report could be well done (peer reviewed by team producing report) and could be ‘worth’ disseminating to the investment ‘community’. Still, that report is only one input and even if it may contain determinant content, it is still one input.

.....

 

When one feels like losing a game, a potential outcome is to complain about (or question) the rules of the game. That’s fine. You can also try to up your game. Good luck.

Spartansaver is right though. There must be something better to do.

 

The author of this article is Dr. Tess Lawrie

 

" Tess is a frequent member of technical teams responsible for developing international guidelines. Her peer-reviewed publications have received in excess of 3000 citations and her ResearchGate score is among the top 5% of ResearchGate members.

 

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/theresa_lawrie "

 

This meta-analysis is of four trials done in Bangladesh, Argentina and Egypt.  There is one more not covered which was done in India

 

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/aiims-study-covid-19/

AIIMS find ivermectin prophylaxis reduces infection in Covid-19 patients

 

All the five trials (Argentine, Egypt, Bangladesh, and India) showed the same result.

 

You guys talk as if India, Bangladesh, Egypt, Argentina along with a British clinical expert along with Dr. Pierry Kory in US got together to come up with this world wide conspiracy.

 

And this is only prophylaxis part of the trials.  WHO Ivermectin project team looked at another 18 RCTs at treatment part from over 10 countries given below.  Thats a damn big world wide conspiracy.

 

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-148845/v1

Authors:Andrew Hill on behalf of the International Ivermectin Project Team

"In six RCTs of moderate or severe infection, there was a 75% reduction in mortality"

 

Hmm...WHO also joined this world wide conspiracy.

 

To get an idea of this world wide conspiracy the above International Ivermectin Project Team has 29 authors from over 10 countries including Iraq & Iran, India & Pakistan, UK & France....this is a damn interesting conspiracy where Iraq & Iran is working together and Pakistan & India are also working together.

 

Not a suggestion for treatment.  Only for discussion.  Please consult your physician for any treatment

[Viking]

Status update of Russian and Chinese vaccine’s. The more (good) options the better...

————————-

Can Vaccines from Russia and China Be a Game Changer?

- https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-power-of-reliable-data-can-vaccines-from-russia-and-china-be-a-game-changer-a-60b5b595-2c98-475c-b405-10b8cb0d4d03

[Investor20]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/deadliest-days-of-the-pandemic-covid-19-kills-nearly-15000-in-california-in-january/ar-BB1dikha

 

Deadliest days of the pandemic: COVID-19 kills nearly 15,000 in California in January

More Californians died of COVID-19 in January than any other month of the pandemic, data from The Times tracker show, with L.A. County continuing to bear the brunt of the virus' toll.

 

 

https://www.ijpr.org/health-and-medicine/2020-11-16/california-clamps-down-newsom-announces-new-restrictions-to-curb-surging-coronavirus (November 16)

 

In throwing an “emergency brake,” Gov. Gavin Newsom orders an even broader mask mandate and further restricts access to businesses, restaurants and other operations for the vast majority of Californians.

[SouthernYankee]

"More Californians died of COVID-19 in January than any other month of the pandemic, data from The Times tracker show, with L.A. County continuing to bear the brunt of the virus' toll."

 

-So, the state with some of the harshest measures to "defeat the virus" sees their largest death totals NOW, while at the same time ruining countless numbers of businesses and personal lives........something tells me the authorities in certain states need to take some "humility" pills.

[Liberty]

https://zeynep.substack.com/p/why-you-should-take-any-vaccine

[Parsad]

"More Californians died of COVID-19 in January than any other month of the pandemic, data from The Times tracker show, with L.A. County continuing to bear the brunt of the virus' toll."

 

-So, the state with some of the harshest measures to "defeat the virus" sees their largest death totals NOW, while at the same time ruining countless numbers of businesses and personal lives........something tells me the authorities in certain states need to take some "humility" pills.

 

That's not difficult to understand.  If you had 1M people carrying the virus 5 months ago, and you have 3M people carrying the virus now, you are going to have a proportionately higher number of deaths.  It has nothing to do with masks, vaccines, business or anything else.  If they didn't take steps previously, you would have 5M or more infected now and even a higher number of deaths. 

 

So let's stop hashing discussions around health officials taking "precautions" during a pandemic.  It's a war...these measures would not even be debated if we had this many deaths by a bio-terrorism attack from another country or group.  Everybody would be on the same side!  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

... So let's stop hashing discussions around health officials taking "precautions" during a pandemic.  It's a war...these measures would not even be debated if we had this many deaths by a bio-terrorism attack from another country or group.  Everybody would be on the same side!  Cheers!

 

[Friggin'] this!

[wachtwoord]

 

So let's stop hashing discussions around health officials taking "precautions" during a pandemic.  It's a war...these measures would not even be debated if we had this many deaths by a bio-terrorism attack from another country or group.  Everybody would be on the same side!  Cheers!

 

If the bio-terrorist attack would have the same ultra low death rate? I sure hope they'd be debated.

 

It is a war alright. An (mis-) information war on the populace and "the good guys" are not winning. Hardly surprising but still very disappointing.

[Parsad]

 

So let's stop hashing discussions around health officials taking "precautions" during a pandemic.  It's a war...these measures would not even be debated if we had this many deaths by a bio-terrorism attack from another country or group.  Everybody would be on the same side!  Cheers!

 

If the bio-terrorist attack would have the same ultra low death rate? I sure hope they'd be debated.

 

It is a war alright. An (mis-) information war on the populace and "the good guys" are not winning. Hardly surprising but still very disappointing.

 

We can debate the merits of being too cautious or opening up the world to normal business and letting the chips fall where they may.  That's easy to say if your health isn't compromised or you're over age 75.  We can also compare other parts of the world that simply let the virus spread and create herd immunity early, but you can easily show how isolated regions like New Zealand, the Caribbean, PEI, etc were able minimize infection thanks to their isolated locations.  The irony is that those complaining about closed businesses now, weren't complaining about closed borders a year ago...so which is it? 

 

There is no true right or wrong answer.  It's easy for us all to be Monday morning quarterbacks, and I don't blame either administration for tackling a problem that they've never faced, were unprepared for and hit the entire globe.  And who exactly are the "good guys"?  My family has lost three people to Covid-19 that normally would not have died if it was simply influenza.  I have four friends who have lost family members.  It's ultra low only for the majority of people, but extremely deadly for a minority.  Cheers! 

[cwericb]

 

We can debate the merits of being too cautious or opening up the world to normal business and letting the chips fall where they may.  That's easy to say if your health isn't compromised or you're over age 75.  We can also compare other parts of the world that simply let the virus spread and create herd immunity early, but you can easily show how isolated regions like New Zealand, the Caribbean, PEI, etc were able minimize infection thanks to their isolated locations.  The irony is that those complaining about closed businesses now, weren't complaining about closed borders a year ago...so which is it? 

 

 

I can comment on PEI. We have had slightly more than 100 cases to date and presently have just five active. There has been no community spread, not a single person has died and no one has even been hospitalized. If you can qualify to come to our province, you MUST be tested and self isolate for 14 days.

 

We have been very careful and have locked down certain businesses temporarily at times when necessary and then re-opened. Given that our third largest industry is tourism (1.6 million visitors annually in a population of 160,000), we have faced a lot of challenges financially and that industry in particular has suffered greatly..

 

However being proactive has also had its benefits. Presently life here is relatively normal or at least a new normal. Restaurants, gyms, etc are all open. Our provincial budget actually had a decent surplus in 2020 and most businesses are operating as normal and some are booming. Real estate and construction are setting records, partially due to people seeing the province as a relatively safe place from Covid. However we have been setting sales records for several years.

 

The fact that we can control who enters the province and having a relatively small population certainly makes it easier. However if we apply the US death rate to our population we should have had thousands hospitalized and hundreds of deaths. Yet we have no dead and no one has yet to be hospitalized. 

[Jurgis]

Did the Labcorp Pixel at home Covid test: https://www.pixel.labcorp.com/

Just FYI as a possibility for people in US experiencing symptoms.

[Cigarbutt]

Recent preliminary but significant developments about vaccines.

 

-Astra Zeneca releases data that supports the hypothesis for significant reduction in transmission and indicates that a delay between the two doses may be beneficial, on a net basis (stronger immune response with second dose).

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268

 

-More data from Israel supporting the notion that the vaccine is having a significant and independent effect on the disease (and its complications) trajectory.

https://github.com/hrossman/Patterns-of-covid-19-pandemic-dynamics-following-deployment-of-a-broad-national-immunization-program/blob/main/2021-02-03%20%20-%20Patterns%20of%20covid-19%20pandemic%20dynamics%20following%20deployment%20of%20a%20broad%20national%20immunization%20program.pdf

 

Do your own diligence but this looks like a favorable asymmetric bet. If you're rational, do it; if not, Just Do It.

[LongHaul]

I appreciate your helpful posts cigarbutt and others.  Interesting times.  Thank God for science!

[wachtwoord]

 

So let's stop hashing discussions around health officials taking "precautions" during a pandemic.  It's a war...these measures would not even be debated if we had this many deaths by a bio-terrorism attack from another country or group.  Everybody would be on the same side!  Cheers!

 

If the bio-terrorist attack would have the same ultra low death rate? I sure hope they'd be debated.

 

It is a war alright. An (mis-) information war on the populace and "the good guys" are not winning. Hardly surprising but still very disappointing.

 

We can debate the merits of being too cautious or opening up the world to normal business and letting the chips fall where they may.  That's easy to say if your health isn't compromised or you're over age 75.  We can also compare other parts of the world that simply let the virus spread and create herd immunity early, but you can easily show how isolated regions like New Zealand, the Caribbean, PEI, etc were able minimize infection thanks to their isolated locations.  The irony is that those complaining about closed businesses now, weren't complaining about closed borders a year ago...so which is it? 

 

There is no true right or wrong answer.  It's easy for us all to be Monday morning quarterbacks, and I don't blame either administration for tackling a problem that they've never faced, were unprepared for and hit the entire globe.  And who exactly are the "good guys"?  My family has lost three people to Covid-19 that normally would not have died if it was simply influenza.  I have four friends who have lost family members.  It's ultra low only for the majority of people, but extremely deadly for a minority.  Cheers!

 

I was actually in favour of closing the borders end of jan and beginning of feb 2020 (and telling friends/family about it, who thought that was insane and society wouldn't accept it). Mostly because of the unknowns: It gives options.

 

After the virus had spread, containing it was a lost cause and all the measures are just extra cost. Throwing good money after bad. Just take it on the chin and we'd be 'done' with it by now (as 'done' as we are with the flu at least) at a fraction of the cost and with comparable (order of magnitude) cumulative lives lost. (btw: lives lost is a flawed metric that should be replaced with expected years lost but I degress).

 

T.b.h. after finding how relatively benign the virus really is I would probably have opened the borders again in April/May but the point I'm making is that isolation is only useful when done (nigh) absolutely. Anything less is just a waste. Just politicians peddling bullshit.

 

So no, New Zealand and friends are not neccessarily acting poorly. Europe/N. America/Australia definitely are (with a few exceptions).

[Investor20]

California death toll at 45,000,

 

up 15,000 in less than a month

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article249175970.html

[Investor20]

CDC guidance Updated Jan 14, 2021

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/participate-in-activities.html

 

"If you want to spend time with people who don’t live with you, outdoors is the safer choice!"

 

CDC even has this picture with old people (notice masks in the picture!):

 

 

"Inside, at least 6 feet apart, Well ventilated room, Wearing mask"

 

Now that is clarified.  It is time to think whether stay at home orders

 

Increase or decrease

 

"outdoors is safer choice!"  and

 

"at least 6 feet apart" guidance from CDC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Seems like the only thing that matters at this point is vaccination.

UK is currently ~31% US is currently at ~21% Europe around 7% and Canada ~5% of the population.

I don’t follow Canada, but Germany is a total disaster. Supply of vaccine is lacking and it looks now that Germany won’t approve the Asta Zeneca vaccine for people above 64 years old (lack off efficacy), but at the same time, they don’t give shots to people below 64 either because of priority for older people.

You can’t really make this up. BioNtec now build a production facility in Marburg for more vaccine, but it isn’t ready yet (EU failed to order enough and they ordered too late) but I hear now that the supply from Marburg may not even get sent to Germany first.

 

We have done a lot of critique on Trump’s “ Warp Speed” but since the current vaccine supply situation is the consequence of decisions made ~6 month ago (mostly) he has done a better job than Europe throwing money at everything basically. Given the cost of maybe wasting $10B vs spending trillions of stimulus that was an easy choice to make (imo) but it appears that nickel and dime-ing in the EU and wasting time seemed like good idea for some at that time, but now really backfires.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

[Libs]

Here's a good site to track & project herd immunity. The U.S. is ~115 MM from past infections and vaccinations. We're getting there!

 

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

 

 

[StubbleJumper]

Here's a good site to track & project herd immunity. The U.S. is ~115 MM from past infections and vaccinations. We're getting there!

 

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

 

 

I had assumed that the US has been at herd immunity for about a month now.

 

 

SJ

[Spekulatius]

Also ironic - the market (SP500) goes up today ~2.7% because the JNJ vaccine gets approved and JNJ stock goes up 0.8%.

[Investor20]

Seems like the only thing that matters at this point is vaccination.

UK is currently ~31% US is currently at ~21% Europe around 7% and Canada ~5% of the population.

I don’t follow Canada, but Germany is a total disaster. Supply of vaccine is lacking and it looks now that Germany won’t approve the Asta Zeneca vaccine for people above 64 years old (lack off efficacy), but at the same time, they don’t give shots to people below 64 either because of priority for older people.

You can’t really make this up. BioNtec now build a production facility in Marburg for more vaccine, but it isn’t ready yet (EU failed to order enough and they ordered too late) but I hear now that the supply from Marburg may not even get sent to Germany first.

 

We have done a lot of critique on Trump’s “ Warp Speed” but since the current vaccine supply situation is the consequence of decisions made ~6 month ago (mostly) he has done a better job than Europe throwing money at everything basically. Given the cost of maybe wasting $10B vs spending trillions of stimulus that was an easy choice to make (imo) but it appears that nickel and dime-ing in the EU and wasting time seemed like good idea for some at that time, but now really backfires.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

I think that statement is hopefully correct but not necessarily correct though that is the mainstream media opinion.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/transmission-rate-nears-1-as-officials-warn-purim-parties-could-halt-reopening/

 

Israel’s virus transmission rate has continued to rise and is extremely close to showing expanded spread, data released by a military taskforce showed on Sunday.

 

"In its latest report, the Military Intelligence taskforce said Israel’s coronavirus transmission rate was once again nearing 1, standing at 0.99. The rate had dipped to a low of 0.8 earlier this month."

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-hospital-admissions-covid-per-million?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-11-22..latest&country=USA~ISR

 

The Israeli new hospitalizations are still very high...133 per million for Israel vs 42 for US as of February 21st.

[wachtwoord]

Anyone scared yet?

 

 

I know I am.

 

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/experts-call-peel-guidelines-to-place-children-in-solitary-quarantine-cruel-punishment

 

And it's not Corona I'm scared of: it's people.

 

I enjoy dystopian SF. Doesn't mean I want to live it.

[Cigarbutt]

Anyone scared yet?

...

And it's not Corona I'm scared of: it's people.

...

When looking at the following, what comes to mind?

-People are stupid?

-We should be scared?

Maybe part of the above answers are right but i would submit that people somehow are trying to get through this, sometimes through trial and error and sometimes the result is not elegant. A nice thing about such a place is that people can share independent thoughts (sometimes with deep convictions). It doesn't mean though that someone who thinks differently is an enemy.

-----

Have you seen the latest results for the influenza season (in the US as an example of a global phenomenon)?

The point of this is not that we have learnt how to deal effectively with the flu but that there may something to learn if 'we' communicate and collaborate more effectively and in a more constructive way.