jfan

Thanks. I love the business and have a tiny starter position but would love to own it at lower prices.

Tvk.to and ipco starter

I recall you were quite bullish at these prices, did you change your mind?

Definitely don't understand everything around the cryptography lingo, but found some useful tidbits

Q1 Shareholder letters from Wintaai and WinRe TDLR: 1) Wintaai purchases Topa Insurance Group 2) WinRe is raising capital for those interested. From the NAIC website #18031 (Topa) Assets $143M Liabilities $85M Capital Surplus $59M Homeowner's multiple peril $73M 3 year Net Income 2025 - $18M 2024 - ($11M) 2023 - ($32M) 2026 Q1 Wintaai Financial Highlights March 2026.pdf 2026 Q1 Win Re update.pdf

All out of Cameco, closed off my margin, taking a breather to figure out where to reinvest

Mine too. Got super lucky here. Had an intuition about the poor sentiment at the time, gained a superficial understanding of the dynamics, sold to recover the house money too soon, but rode it until it starting trading like a meme stock. The price-implied expectations are high here, and retail friends with no working knowledge (investment or mining) started jumping into this name, so I think it's time to leave the party.

Sold 1/3 of my cameco shares.

My back of the envelope Stonetrust valuation

LRIE and LHC have a bit of an accounting peculiarity that is a bit difficult from the outside to pick apart. His 2023 letter describes that LHC derives its revenue from LRIE's Gross Written Premium (ie before reinsurance ceded). LHC's fee to LRIE is 20% of GWP. His 2024 letter describes an accounting rule change in revenue recognition, where LHC's fee is still based on GWP, but it must be recognized over the policy term. This would create a deferred revenue liability item on the balance sheet. This would suggest to me that if they have multi-year policies, that the cash earnings will be greater than GAAP net earnings (assuming minimal working capital). Without the cash flow statement or balance sheet, I can't interpolate the exact number. In addition, it had assumed some premiums in 2023 that had lower Attorney-in-fact fees. Using a very rough approximation with the disclosures given, the LHC fee % of GWP were: 2023 - 11.2% 2024 - 11.5% 2025 - 18.9% It's not quite their originally stated 20%, but it is close, which I assume might be related to not issuing multi-year policies (my guess). Finally, in 2023's letter, Francis gives us his forecast for LRIE and LHC as shown below: As a comparison to actual results: LRIE GWP 2023 - $45,945 2024 - $163,416 2025 - $204,165 LHC Total Revenue / Operating Income / Pre-tax Income (inclusive of investments and financing/other expenses) 2023 - $5,141 / ($3,798) / ($3,792) 2024 - $18,892 / $4,127 / $4,249 2025 - $38,515 / $17,526 / $18,341 Actual results lag his forecast, primarily driven by less GWP (?more competition). If I adjust their 2025 numbers to "more reflect" their cash earnings, LHC made the following: 1) 20% x $204,615 = $40,923 2) less operating expense of $20,989 = $19,934 (operating margin of 48.7%) 3) add net gains on investment of $8,178 = $28,112 4) less interest expense, bad debt, and other income of $7,362 = $20,750 (pre-tax income) 5) assuming a total Florida tax rate of 26.5% (I might wrong here) = $15,251 (after-tax income) What is this worth? a) 10x cash earnings ~ $150 Million b) 15x cash earnings ~ $228 Million c) 4x revenue ~ $163 Million Wintaai's share (90% ownership) a) $135 Million b) 205 Million c) $147 Million * on a $9 Million Wintaai America's initial investment There are 5,506,360 Wintaai Holding shares at year end 2025. This would peg the per-share value of LHC between $24 to $37/share. *As per Francis, to add to more accounting/auditing peculiarities, LRIE is consolidated at net asset value into Wintaai holdings but this makes no economic sense because the net asset value represents policyholder contributions (not Wintaai equity).

Francis also started a reinsurance business as well. Here is the annual letter. Francis said the returns were only satisfactory for him and that he could do much better. 2025 Win Re Annual Update.pdf

Could always consider eq bank or goeasy.

Thanks. I only own CSU and TOI due to research time constraints and capital. Together they are ~ 11% of my self-managed portion of my portfolio (4% in CSU and 7% in TOI). I weighted it more to TOI because of its smaller size relative to CSU, and been pretty consistent since 2019 on their EBITDA/Average Adjusted Invested Capital of ~ 20-25%. I appreciate your thoughts on Lumine. Carve-outs seem much more complex, and due to their size, may limit PE competitors vs TOI's traditional acquisition strategy. Not sure I can wrap my head around the deal complexity, and integration risk.

How did you divide up your position size among the three entities if you don't mind me asking and why?

Family of 12-year-old Tumbler Ridge shooting victim files civil claim against OpenAI https://share.google/TfCodgtfr0iYewBuF