lnofeisone Posted March 8, 2023 Posted March 8, 2023 Bought a full position of SNCAF. The thread is great and the market is asleep at the wheel. Bought LSXMK and MEGEF starters.
Paarslaars Posted March 8, 2023 Posted March 8, 2023 14 hours ago, lnofeisone said: Bought a full position of SNCAF. The thread is great and the market is asleep at the wheel. I'm waiting for the COBF effect to wear off and get it a bit lower.
Castanza Posted March 8, 2023 Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Paarslaars said: I'm waiting for the COBF effect to wear off and get it a bit lower. I'm not lol added a bit more this morning
Saluki Posted March 8, 2023 Posted March 8, 2023 Added a little VTS and OXY. When I think of worst case scenario 1970s stagflation, I think owning real assets, including oil is the best of the worst scenarios. Taxing windfall profits from energy producers isn't incentivizing anyone to look for new capacity so the existing capacity should be worth more.
n.r98 Posted March 8, 2023 Posted March 8, 2023 (edited) Bought some GLOP and TBPH. TBPH has some activists involved; cash, CVRs and stake in key drug Yupelri more than covers the stock price. New drug Ampre now in phase 3 could easily be worth >$5/share even on pretty conservative assumptions. Business is trimming down staff, shutting majority of their research programs and returning capital to shareholders with a planned 170m to be returned by end of this year which should add about 10% on top of the total value of the firm. Irenic capital writing that letter was probably trying to highlight where Wally is rather than admonish management; don't see why some larger firm doesn't offer a quick premium to the extant stock price and take the remaining upside for free. Edited March 8, 2023 by n.r98
Spekulatius Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) Bought some regional bank stocks $EBC and $CATY. I also added to $CABO Edited March 9, 2023 by Spekulatius
Viking Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 BAC and WFC. Down double digits since Monday and close to 15% over the past month.
Red Lion Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 Topped up KKR to equal weight with BX, APO, and BN.
mike_3772 Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 Bought BAC, C, CMA and ZION, but mostly BAC. Currently in oil, tobacco and now financials. Praying for another 15-20% market selloff as I'm around 60% cash after spending all last year 100% cash. One more leg down and I will be all set for the next 3-5 years with some nice dividends as the icing on top.
sleepydragon Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, Viking said: BAC and WFC. Down double digits since Monday and close to 15% over the past month. this is crazy. What does a cryto bank going bust has to do with JPM?!
dipod Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 Bought C, ZION, BAC, WFC today. NVDA September puts a few weeks ago.
Viking Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 34 minutes ago, sleepydragon said: this is crazy. What does a cryto bank going bust has to do with JPM?! Perhaps we are starting to see the effects of rapid Fed tightening just starting to play out. The initial cracks. Give it another 6 months; especially if interest rates go higher. Investors have been living a Disney movie for the past 13 years - the Fed ALWAYS had their back. As a result, all financial assets (housing, stocks, bonds) were a one way bet… much higher. Most investors think their stellar returns over the past decade were the result of skill. 2022 was a terrible year for most investors. 2023? Probably more of the same. Edited March 9, 2023 by Viking
Spekulatius Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, sleepydragon said: this is crazy. What does a cryto bank going bust has to do with JPM?! It's not just the Bank of the Crypt, its also this SillyCon bank that spooked a bit:
Viking Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: It's not just the Bank of the Crypt, its also this SillyCon bank that spooked a bit: SPAC lender (based in tech land - San Francisco). What a surprise! Lots more cockroaches out there. Anyone who has a large amount of debt either variable rate or coming due the next year or two is going to have their come to Jesus moment. Commercial real estate? REIT’s? Lots of companies are praying the Fed cuts rates and soon. Hope is not a good strategy. A decade of deals (and whole industries) were build on the assumption of free money. That ship has sailed. Perhaps we see credit spreads start to widen out… Edited March 9, 2023 by Viking
Spekulatius Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Viking said: SPAC lender. What a surprise! It's not lending that did them in, it's liability management. These guys take deposits from the SillyCon valley VC bubble economy which have been fleeting, I think. They put those into treasuries that are deeply under water and then decided that they need to sell part of the treasury holding and realize losses. These idiots managed to own $120B in fixed income securities with an $16B equity base. Edited March 9, 2023 by Spekulatius
Saluki Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 Added a little OXY, TV and SWBI. Just listened to the SWBI conference call after the close, it probably won't be this cheap tomorrow
Mick92 Posted March 9, 2023 Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) Finished building out a position in Nintendo (7974). Valuation seems reasonable and they have a few potential catalysts for success in the next couple of years, but happy to hold for the long term if there's no imminent re-rating. Edited March 9, 2023 by Mick92
Spekulatius Posted March 10, 2023 Posted March 10, 2023 Regarding SIVB: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4585904-svb-financial-selloff-overdone-well-positioned-long-term#comment-94677294
CorpRaider Posted March 10, 2023 Posted March 10, 2023 3 hours ago, Mick92 said: Finished building out a position in Nintendo (7974). Valuation seems reasonable and they have a few potential catalysts for success in the next couple of years, but happy to hold for the long term if there's no imminent re-rating. I'm with you.
Spekulatius Posted March 10, 2023 Posted March 10, 2023 (edited) 17 hours ago, dipod said: Bought C, ZION, BAC, WFC today. NVDA September puts a few weeks ago. @dipod - what is your take at $ZION. they also got a bunch of AFS securities and moved a large bunch to HTM ( yellow flag). They also have seen a huge bump in deposits in 2020 and have seen some of them disspear. the bank is very cheap, if they can hold on to their security portfolio and they seem to have very low cost deposits, but there are definitely reasons why some investors are concerned, based on a preliminary look. Edit - i just saw that they also drawn ~$10B from federal funds already, so they are definitly liquidity constraint. those Federal funds loans are quite expensive and might lead to negative carry relative to their securities. Edited March 10, 2023 by Spekulatius
WFF Posted March 10, 2023 Posted March 10, 2023 Added BAC. The deposits at BAC should be quite sticky, and if the events at Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate scares people, I would venture a flight to safety towards the big banks like JPM, BAC and WFC will occur. If we starts to see it spreading, and impacting the big banks (too big to fail anyone?) I would venture the government will step in like it always do.
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