What are you buying today?

[KJP]

IAC

[sleepydragon]

Jpm

[throw123]

googl

[n.r98]

Bought a little $KSS. Trading at trough P/E of 9-10x, average EPS was $4-5 pre COV and share count has reduced bigly so any reversion could bring this back up to $40-50? Also stock trades below BV which has never happened except at Covid troughs. This is the reversion to the mean story.

 

Insiders just bought cum $1m worth of stock past week after whiff of a print. 7-8b real estate portfolio value. Perhaps mgmt extrapolated cov environment and thought stock should be worth oodles more but perhaps not anymore and be more willing to sell the co now? Idk. But seems like a decent r/r apart from the icky balance sheet.

 

 

[flikhopper]

On 8/10/2022 at 11:22 AM, kh812000 said:

AEHR.  Undiscovered play on SiC.  Earnings growing 70%+ trading at PE of 25x.

 

$CVV

[nafregnum]

On 8/23/2022 at 8:29 AM, changegonnacome said:

APPL Puts......lots of fund managers hiding out in APPL.......but the confidence termites are making their way up to even the mighty fruit......was gonna buy SPY puts....but from here I think APPL is a superior market hedge...higher P/E, higher beta, lower vol, COVID beneficiary so over earning in 2020/21.......tougher COVID comps moving forward.....APPL is moving up iPhone launch date to try to squeeze a week or two of iPhone sales into their fiscal 4th quarter....artificially moving launch dates up & trying to 'make the quarter' is a robbing Peter to pay Paul game......maybe they make 4th Qtr but fiscal 1st Qtr could be a disaster...buying Leaps to capture both

 

The thesis is interesting.  I've never used puts before, does this sound reasonable below?

 

Looking at the March and April '23 puts at the $100 strike which look to be going for about $1 right now.  If AAPL disappoints in the next couple quarters and drops from today's $169 down to say $140 by January '23 then it seems like the puts might be going for $4 at that point (about 2-3 months from expiry) ... I honestly don't see it going as low as $100, but am just curious if it would be reasonable to see today's $1 put price be worth $4 if the current price deteriorated from $169 to around $140 with about 3 months remaining before the options expire.

 

 

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, nafregnum said:

 

The thesis is interesting.  I've never used puts before, does this sound reasonable below?

 

Looking at the March and April '23 puts at the $100 strike which look to be going for about $1 right now.  If AAPL disappoints in the next couple quarters and drops from today's $169 down to say $140 by January '23 then it seems like the puts might be going for $4 at that point (about 2-3 months from expiry) ... I honestly don't see it going as low as $100, but am just curious if it would be reasonable to see today's $1 put price be worth $4 if the current price deteriorated from $169 to around $140 with about 3 months remaining before the options expire.

 

 

No chance. Especially if it takes two quarters of time.

[changegonnacome]

7 minutes ago, nafregnum said:

Looking at the March and April '23 puts at the $100 strike which look to be going for about $1 right now.  If AAPL disappoints in the next couple quarters and drops from today's $169 down to say $140 by January '23 then it seems like the puts might be going for $4 at that point (about 2-3 months from expiry) ... I honestly don't see it going as low as $100, but am just curious if it would be reasonable to see today's $1 put price be worth $4 if the current price deteriorated from $169 to around $140 with about 3 months remaining before the options expire.

 

 

Timing is everything with these.......which is why Ive shorted underlying too and juiced it with puts.........AAPL, IMO, will without even a deterioration in earnings (which is coming but might not come quick enough for my puts) will re-test and likely break the lows from June ~$130......this will be a pure, oh shit, higher for longer Fed/discount rate move.....if the 10yr is at 5%...you have to ask yourself wtf your doing holding Apple at 3.8% FCF yield and where the biz has been over earnings such that at the current share price the FCF yield could easily drop to a 2-handle once earnings revert to 2019 levels + inflation....so thats the thesis......macro and micro.....lets see. This is not investment advice.

 

I still think Tesla, Coinbase, Robinhood etc. are gonna puke again soon so have got some of those on the short side. AAPL is just a kind of better version of an SPY short given its re-touched it ATH's (SPY hasnt).....think SPY earnings are gonna puke too but AAPL's will puke worse....the grind lower as both the numerator AND denominator come down is gonna be worse for AAPL i think just given its more highly geared.

[nafregnum]

Just now, Gregmal said:

No chance. Especially if it takes two quarters of time.

 

Thanks, so are you saying, "No chance" meaning the price of the put wouldn't swing that much on such a small decline as $169->$140?  And by "Especially if it takes two quarters of time" are you saying that the option's value would improve the best if the price decline occurred really fast like a 5% drop in a day kind of thing?

 

I bought myself just 1 put option ($100 strike Mar'23) today just to watch it swing around and try to learn how it behaves over time.

[Gregmal]

Yea I don’t see it getting anywhere near there if you take 3-6 months and only get to 140. You’d probably also need the VIX over 30 again. And even then if you’re talking Spring 2023 puts and expecting $140 to take til January then you really need to conceptualize how insane that is. You’d be lucky to get $2 because the odds of another 40% pullback in 3-4 months just isn’t there. 
 

And yes. With options, the sooner the move the better. Time is literally money.

[nafregnum]

8 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Timing is everything with these.......which is why Ive shorted underlying too and juiced it with puts.........AAPL, IMO, will without even a deterioration in earnings (which is coming but might not come quick enough for my puts) will re-test and likely break the lows from June ~$130......this will be a pure, oh shit, higher for longer Fed/discount rate move.....if the 10yr is at 5%...you have to ask yourself wtf your doing holding Apple at 3.8% FCF yield and where the biz has been over earnings such that at the current share price the FCF yield could easily drop to a 2-handle once earnings revert to 2019 levels + inflation....so thats the thesis......macro and micro.....lets see. This is not investment advice.

 

I still think Tesla, Coinbase, Robinhood etc. are gonna puke again soon so have got some of those on the short side. AAPL is just a kind of better version of an SPY short given its re-touched it ATH's (SPY hasnt).....think SPY earnings are gonna puke too but AAPL's will puke worse....the grind lower as both the numerator AND denominator come down is gonna be worse for AAPL i think just given its more highly geared.

 

It's a compelling thesis -- I ended up buying just 1 put so I can watch it swing around without feeling euphoria/dread and get a handle on it.  What I really can't figure out is "If X happens, how will the put options respond" for various values of X.  Just trying to understand the expected outcomes and how the option would realistically behave.

 

Example: I bought some OBE Jan'23 12.50 strike calls for 0.60 a few weeks ago, just to watch them.  They were up 40% a couple days ago when OBE jumped 10%, and I could've sold them for an 80% overall gain that day.  Since then they're back down to $0.95 for an overall gain of around 56% ... seems like something I just need to pick a big up day to sell.  

[nafregnum]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea I don’t see it getting anywhere near there if you take 3-6 months and only get to 140. You’d probably also need the VIX over 30 again. And even then if you’re talking Spring 2023 puts and expecting $140 to take til January then you really need to conceptualize how insane that is. You’d be lucky to get $2 because the odds of another 40% pullback in 3-4 months just isn’t there. 
 

And yes. With options, the sooner the move the better. Time is literally money.

 

Thanks a lot for the extra info!  I see what you mean now about how nobody would consider a fall to $100 likely if it already fell to $140 over the course of a number of months.  Big sudden swings in price are where the options seem to pay out the best.  

[RichardGibbons]

42 minutes ago, nafregnum said:

 

Thanks a lot for the extra info!  I see what you mean now about how nobody would consider a fall to $100 likely if it already fell to $140 over the course of a number of months.  Big sudden swings in price are where the options seem to pay out the best.  

 

It's also worth noting that if you're curious what the prices will roughly be, you can just put the numbers into a Black-Scholes model. You'd need to estimate the implied volatility, but it will return approximately the right answer if your inputs are at all reasonable.

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, nafregnum said:

Big sudden swings in price are where the options seem to pay out the best.  

 

Yep for context - I bought $90 March strikes........this is calamity insurance and I think its underpriced.........I have a view that I've shared widely on here that what we saw in May/June was just the opening credits for a movie called "Higher for Longer: Multiples get crushed" and its sequel "Earnings Recession".......it might take longer than March for both movies to play out, I'll see, I suspect there will be a good exit point somewhere in there for my puts and I can reload again with longer duration so I get front row seats to both movies............anyway Apple gets me a descent ticket to both given its touching its ATH COVID highs (its like Oracle in 1999, there's no investment management career risk going over the cliff holding Apple), its PE is priced (3% FCF yield) like the 10yr is going back to 1% pretty soon ( i personally think the 10yr is going to 4-5% and staying up there for 2023/24) and I think that they've over earned like nobodies business because of COVID WFH lockdowns and a technology super-cyle (5G & M1 processors) in their main revenue products, now throw in dollar strength depressing overseas earnings + their end markets of Europe/China weakening significantly.....you can see why they are rushing to get the iPhone out the door so early this year.....they need to hurry because their European (Energy prices) and Chinese (zero covid/property crisis) customers sense of wealth is depleting daily and these folks are running out of disposal income and fast. The iPhone 12/13 will work perfectly fine for these folks as they assess household budgets into winter 2023....they can skip iPhone 14, no biggie but Tim Apple is doing the exact thing Id do....push up the release date ASAP before the macro deteriorates any further...juice up fiscal Q4.....and then with everybody else and in the bosom of the crowd start in early 2023 to report YoY earnings declines...joining the chorus of other companies blaming macro, dollar, inflation & rising costs. Better to fail conventionally, than succeed unconventionally....Tim is making sure his rockstar CEO status inside the FANGMA complex is retained by not stepping out into the firing line first, Netflix & Reed Hastings already did that and got his head blown off (for the record I think Tim is a rockstar)

Edited August 25, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

Hit a few more AIV 7.5s

[CorpRaider]

I'm watching this John Malone talk where he tells the students to lever long $T and get a 12% ROE over and over whilst checking the quote on $SLG.

[LC]

44 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

I'm watching this John Malone talk where he tells the students to lever long $T and get a 12% ROE over and over whilst checking the quote on $SLG.

 

Could you share that? Would be interesting to hear Malone talk about AT&T...

[CorpRaider]

2 hours ago, LC said:

 

Could you share that? Would be interesting to hear Malone talk about AT&T...

Oh I was just joking, it's an old talk on youtube to DU students and he talks about levering up $T stock on margin.  He doesn't really talk about anything substantive w/r/t $T.

 

I think this is it:  

 

 

Edit:  Whelp, I got filled.  I think I'm going to puke.

Edited August 26, 2022 by CorpRaider

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

Oh I was just joking, it's an old talk on youtube to DU students and he talks about levering up $T stock on margin.  He doesn't really talk about anything substantive w/r/t $T.

 

I think this is it:  

 

 

Edit:  Whelp, I got filled.  I think I'm going to puke.

Early happy hours drinks or are you talking about stonks?

[Monsieur_dee]

Starter basket of C, Ally & Bac

[KPO]

MSGS

[fareastwarriors]

more Swedish Match under US $10

Edited August 26, 2022 by fareastwarriors

[Viking]

FFH. < US $505

[ERICOPOLY]

On 8/15/2022 at 2:17 PM, Gregmal said:

VIX is so low you wanna go OTM

 

Just to share my experience from this past 11 days, my ATM puts have outperformed my OTM puts.  I have Oct 429 strike SPY puts that are now up 110%.

 

But my OTM puts are Nov $390 (up 55%) and March $362 (up 45%) so it could be the longer expirations that are holding them back.

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

Just to share my experience from this past 11 days, my ATM puts have outperformed my OTM puts.  I have Oct 429 strike SPY puts that are now up 110%.

 

But my OTM puts are Nov $390 (up 55%) and March $362 (up 45%) so it could be the longer expirations that are holding them back.

 

 

 

 

Yea I think it varies. All I own is some October and November IWM puts. The Oct $180 strike for instance went from $2.6-2.8 to now $5. I’ll probably hold it for a few more weeks. Obviously we need to start getting worked up for the September rate hike. I’ve heard the world ends with a 3.5-4% Fed funds rate. So you wanna sell just before everything goes to black.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Gregmal