What are you buying today?

[fareastwarriors]

Picked up some PM at 100.30.

 

I'm a yield pig!

[Spekulatius]

39 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

Picked up some PM at 100.30.

 

I'm a yield pig!

You would be buying BTI if you were a yield pig (I did buy a little).

 

Added to MSP (A managed software provider (as the ticker indicates). I liked the their past quarterly earnings and think they could grow for a long time. High teens growth is too low for the compounder brothers in software, but is fine with me.

Edited August 25, 2021 by Spekulatius

[fareastwarriors]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

You would be buying BTI if you were a yield pig (I did buy a little).

 

Added to MSP (A managed software provider (as the ticker indicates). I liked the their past quarterly earnings and think they could grow for a long time. High teens growth is too low for the compounder brothers in software, but is fine with me.

 

I do own some BTI but haven't added lately.   Between all my REITs and now some tobacco stocks, I'm growing into a piggy. 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

On 8/15/2021 at 10:35 PM, irnovo said:

For GOCO, on Q2 earnings call, they revised EBITDA for 2021 (from ~350m to ~300) due to increased costs for hiring and retaining sale agents in 2021. EHTH didn't change guidance in Q2 call. SLQT is due to announce earnings on 25th Aug. The companies may seem spammy but it is in their best interest to find the most suitable Medicare Advantage plan for the seniors so that the churn is low. Therefore they really help seniors. I'd highly suggest most recent write up on VIC as well as the discussion in comments. With so many MA plans available (~28 on avrg), it can really get difficult for the seniors to choose the most appropriate plans. I don't see any reason why these platforms would fail to post high rev growth in coming years. They all have ~2-3 LTV/CAC, meaning that every additional approved member adds to profitability. 

@irnovo$SLQT coughing up blood too. Earnings missed by a huge amount, mostly due to rapidly rising costs and worse economics. What a disaster this sector is and quite frankly, I don't fully understand, why they are doing so much worse than last year.

No position.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Spekulatius

[longlake95]

added to DISCK.

[fareastwarriors]

Added more CLPR

 

BG got me hyped!

[lnofeisone]

Bought back a starter of KNOP and some UNG puts. 

[irnovo]

23 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@irnovo$SLQT coughing up blood too. Earnings missed by a huge amount, mostly due to rapidly rising costs and worse economics. What a disaster this sector is and quite frankly, I don't fully understand, why they are doing so much worse than last year.

No position.

I added to my starter position at $7.95. All 3 have mentioned pretty much the same reason: higher cost of hiring and retaining the agents this year due to labor shortage, which lead to ~25% lower guidance. 

[Gregmal]

9/3 PTON puts. Somewhat surprised this was barely down following a disastrous report. Think the news flow over the weekend sinks in and the more intelligent investors outweigh the dumbasses next week. 

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

9/3 PTON puts. Somewhat surprised this was barely down following a disastrous report. Think the news flow over the weekend sinks in and the more intelligent investors outweigh the dumbasses next week. 

i think strong market is propping up PTON today. I was expecting/hoping for a bigger drop. 

[Gregmal]

^thats kind of the angle I'm trading here. I dont think anyone buying a stock like PTON really knows what theyre doing anymore than the folks buying GME and AMC type stuff, but having the ER Thursday into the Friday of Jackson Hole and market rallying perhaps props things up, along with the absolutely bizarre loyalty today from all the bullish analysts.... my hunch is the weekend pause and any sort of possible pullback next week maybe a catalyst for the bottom to come out. You can buy $105s for 2.70 and $100s for $1 and if it revisits some of the after hour prints from yesterday you make several times your money.  

Edited August 27, 2021 by Gregmal

[Gregmal]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:12 AM, Gregmal said:

shorted a few CLF $22 puts for 8/27

The gift that keeps on giving. Another round of 

 

[hasilp89]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The gift that keeps on giving. Another round of 

 

thank you, jumped in on that one. 

[fareastwarriors]

More $JBGS at 30. 

[Gregmal]

4 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

i think strong market is propping up PTON today. I was expecting/hoping for a bigger drop. 

What also interesting, is I could totally see one of those smash and grab firms like Muddy Waters or whatever targeting this now too. It would be the typically sensational, exaggerated, largely fabricated narrative BS, but all of the ingredients are there now for a bombastic short raid. If I was involved in the type of work I did awhile ago I'd probably spend the weekend creating a 30 page report about the Peloton Death Machine: Potential Bankruptcy Risk....with accelerating losses, major accounting concerns and potential fraud, goosed engagement metrics, huge price cuts on their keys products while still offering junk financing to anything with a pulse, and the botched recall with unprecedented liability. None of which IMO is really "that" dire, but you could absolutely make that presentation and I'd be surprised if some number centric finance douche doesnt try to capitalize on it. 

[lnofeisone]

Greg - I'd like to see that scenario. I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if PTON dips sub $100 and genuinely shocked if it touches May lows. Waiting for people to turn rational has been a fool's game for the last 10 years.

[CorpRaider]

On 8/26/2021 at 1:29 PM, fareastwarriors said:

Added more CLPR

 

BG got me hyped!

Did he post something or publish a letter?

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

Did he post something or publish a letter?

 

[CorpRaider]

Thx!

[Gregmal]

On 8/27/2021 at 1:52 PM, Gregmal said:

^thats kind of the angle I'm trading here. I dont think anyone buying a stock like PTON really knows what theyre doing anymore than the folks buying GME and AMC type stuff, but having the ER Thursday into the Friday of Jackson Hole and market rallying perhaps props things up, along with the absolutely bizarre loyalty today from all the bullish analysts.... my hunch is the weekend pause and any sort of possible pullback next week maybe a catalyst for the bottom to come out. You can buy $105s for 2.70 and $100s for $1 and if it revisits some of the after hour prints from yesterday you make several times your money.  

Flipped the 105s which now pull the basis there and cover the majority of the outlay on the 100s. Basically a free play now. 

[Spekulatius]

On 8/4/2021 at 7:45 PM, Spekulatius said:

NTDOY / Nintendo (starter) and a tracker in ATVI.

Adding just a few more shares to my $ATVI tracker.

[Gregmal]

On 7/19/2021 at 3:15 PM, Gregmal said:

Just put another 3/2 waterfront townhome under contract. 30 year fixed FTW. YOLO. 

Just closed on this recently. Ironically enough, more anecdotal evidence for the @BG2008 NY revival thesis...the seller was a PGRE exec who got called back to the office in Manhattan, starting in September. Fun times. 

[BG2008]

35 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Just closed on this recently. Ironically enough, more anecdotal evidence for the @BG2008 NY revival thesis...the seller was a PGRE exec who got called back to the office in Manhattan, starting in September. Fun times. 

 

@Gregmal You are a beast with those private purchases.  We should probably create a CLPR thread.  Generally, people get to buy NYC at a discount every 10 years or so.  9/11, GFC, and Covid.  Rhythm is about right. 

[gary17]

my friends from the US are telling me an unemployed person with all the federal support, etc is getting about $4000 - $5000 USD / month for not working - is that true?

[lnofeisone]

46 minutes ago, gary17 said:

my friends from the US are telling me an unemployed person with all the federal support, etc is getting about $4000 - $5000 USD / month for not working - is that true?

The general answer to your question is no. The average unemployed person gets nowhere near that. $4-$5k represents the top amount someone can receive in State + Federal support. Keep in mind, the range is from $0 to $5k and to get to $5k, you have to lose a job that would be paying more than that. Most unemployment insurance (UI) programs also have a limit on number of weeks you will be supported. 

 

To more nuanced answer to your question is - it will depend on the state/commonwealth where you are. Massachusetts has the highest rate for UI - up to $800/week or so but you have to lose a 85k/year job to get it. If you lose 50k/year job, you'll get about $500 or so. With CARES act Federal "bonus" was $600 but is now down to $300  so if you lose a $100k job, you will get about $1.1k/week or about $60k in unemployment. Arizona is bottom of the barrel when it comes to UI. I think they pay something like $250/week. With CARES act addition, you get to $550/week or about $26k/year, if you lose a $100k/year job.