What are you buying today?

[york]

Added a little more Blackberry today - at almost double my cost base. It seems that folks are coming to understand the quality product still on offer by the team at BB.

[Arski]

OACB which is Oaktree's second SPAC. Playing it as a "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" cash alternative.

 

How confident are you that they don't shrew up?

[Gregmal]

Added a few more MX and BAM

 

EDIT: also got allocated some IIIIU

 

Sold some MX. Paid down some margin. Started GILT.

 

Sold 2/3 of GILT, paid down some margin, added more BRK.

[Nomad]

Added significantly to GLD - not really finding much else to do

[LC]

VMW is growth at a reasonable price.

 

I wish Mirantis/Docker was public.

 

Bought BRK the past few trading days.

[LC]

Added significantly to GLD - not really finding much else to do

 

Is this a response to the superstockmarket and government monetary policy?

[Gregmal]

Bought a tiny, 100% speculative XRP position before the trading suspension. Dont give 2 hoots about XRP but I think I am comfortable with my understanding of how SEC related issues get resolved and and while there is always the risk its wiped out or never trades again on a mainstream basis(hence small position), if things go the way I expect them to this should open 3-4x higher than where it is now.

[Nomad]

Added significantly to GLD - not really finding much else to do

 

Is this a response to the superstockmarket and government monetary policy?

 

Yes - at the risk of diverting this thread into the political quicksand, I am concerned about inflation as it seems to be a risk that many market participants are discounting right now. I'm cognizant of the fact that gold yields nothing, but I'm overexposed to USD as a US resident, and I think that the fiscal bias of the new administration will be towards more stimulus. We will have the most dovish Fed chair in history working with the second most dovish Fed chair in history (in her forthcoming role as Treasury Secretary) along with a new President who has voiced support for significant spending programs. The prudence of Paul Volcker is long past, we're now well over 100% debt-to-GDP in the US, and given our relatively anemic GDP growth over the past decade, I don't see us "growing out" of that debt, meaning that the only course for policymakers is full on fiscal repression. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing significant increases in grocery prices along with dastardly "shrinkflation" (same price, less food), and it seems like some of the current levitation in the stock market may simply be attributable to the sheer amount of liquidity surging into the system.

 

That being said, I seem to be an excellent contrary indicator on macro, so those reading this might want to load up on NASDAQ calls :D

[Viking]

Added significantly to GLD - not really finding much else to do

 

Is this a response to the superstockmarket and government monetary policy?

 

Yes - at the risk of diverting this thread into the political quicksand, I am concerned about inflation as it seems to be a risk that many market participants are discounting right now. I'm cognizant of the fact that gold yields nothing, but I'm overexposed to USD as a US resident, and I think that the fiscal bias of the new administration will be towards more stimulus. We will have the most dovish Fed chair in history working with the second most dovish Fed chair in history (in her forthcoming role as Treasury Secretary) along with a new President who has voiced support for significant spending programs. The prudence of Paul Volcker is long past, we're now well over 100% debt-to-GDP in the US, and given our relatively anemic GDP growth over the past decade, I don't see us "growing out" of that debt, meaning that the only course for policymakers is full on fiscal repression. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing significant increases in grocery prices along with dastardly "shrinkflation" (same price, less food), and it seems like some of the current levitation in the stock market may simply be attributable to the sheer amount of liquidity surging into the system.

 

That being said, I seem to be an excellent contrary indicator on macro, so those reading this might want to load up on NASDAQ calls :D

 

My guess is we get a big inflation head fake later in 2021 as the economy gathers steam. And then the deflationary forces kick in again. I am in the Lacy Hunt / Hoisington camp that more debt = disinflation perhaps leading to mild deflation in a few years. The good news in the US is the consumer is in good shape (debt wise) unlike Canada.

 

2021 is setting up to be a blowout year for asset prices (driven primarily by free money). Where i live in Vancouver people are starting to predict record price increases for housing in the spring selling season (which of course would set nose-bleed record selling prices). Price increases for housing also look strong in the US. Makes sense to me stocks will also join the party (who wants to own bonds in their portfolio anymore?). Hang on tight... the roaring 20’s might just be getting started :-)

[rkbabang]

Sold a small amount of SE to add to BRKB and BAM.

[Nomad]

My guess is we get a big inflation head fake later in 2021 as the economy gathers steam. And then the deflationary forces kick in again. I am in the Lacy Hunt / Hoisington camp that more debt = disinflation perhaps leading to mild deflation in a few years. The good news in the US is the consumer is in good shape (debt wise) unlike Canada.

 

2021 is setting up to be a blowout year for asset prices (driven primarily by free money). Where i live in Vancouver people are starting to predict record price increases for housing in the spring selling season (which of course would set nose-bleed record selling prices). Price increases for housing also look strong in the US. Makes sense to me stocks will also join the party (who wants to own bonds in their portfolio anymore?). Hang on tight... the roaring 20’s might just be getting started :-)

 

That's certainly a plausible hypothesis, and Lacy Hunt has forgotten more than I will ever know about monetary policy, so it's definitely humbling to be on the other side of the trade. That being said, the reason I'm betting the way I am is that the virus and concomitant lockdowns have destroyed a lot of our productive capacity and gummed up supply chains worldwide, but that capacity hasn't really been restored by the stimulus packages. Handing out cash has not put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

 

So we have a situation where trillions of dollars are being pumped into the system, but those trillions are not going to things that improve productivity like infrastructure or toward saving the firms that actually need aid. Many businesses were left out in the cold by our previous stimulus packages and are either dead/dying or unable to return to "normal" operations. In the US, we also have relief checks being sent to people who may not have lost their jobs in the first place, and many people, especially the work from home set, have more cash than ever. The Fed's chart of M2 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2) is sobering, and the anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that a certain amount of this money has made its way into speculative bets on options, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies.

 

The overly simplified equation to me is: More money sloshing around / fewer goods & services actually able to be produced, delivered, or provided = higher prices for goods and services (especially those with inelastic demand like food) and skyrocketing asset prices. The policymakers seem to be totally out of ideas; their only policy prescriptions are to "print more money" and "kick the can down the road." Just today Janet Yellen talked about issuing 50-year bonds, which would take the US to new levels of can-kicking. To me, since the US will never default (due to its control of the reserve currency) and can't raise rates due to the enormous burden of debt service, the only way out is inflation. This is also a politically palatable option as some of the people can be fooled some of the time by nominal "increases" in their salaries and prices of their houses and stocks.

 

One thing that strikes me is that both the inflationist and disinflationist/deflationist camps seem to broadly agree that once you lower interest rates to 0% to spur nominal GDP growth, there's no coming back in real terms. ZIRP is like the Hotel California - you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.

[LC]

Appreciate the commentary.

[Viking]

I listened to Gundlach’s 2021 outlook presentation. I think his basic conclusion is you need to have a barbell strategy to take advantage of either inflation happening or a continuation of disinflation/mild deflation. Smart people seem to be pretty stumped about which scenario we get in the coming year (s).

[Xerxes]

I sold Bank of Nova Scotia at break-even prices.

I guess i got the dividends for now.

 

I added this week to these three to my existing positions all at higher dollars:

 

- Couche Tard

- BIP.UN

- Berkshire

 

[villainx]

Sold a small amount of SE to add to BRKB and BAM.

 

Anything overtly negative for SE?  Or just locking short term bump?  I'm still trying to build a full position for SE.

[rkbabang]

Sold a small amount of SE to add to BRKB and BAM.

 

Anything overtly negative for SE?  Or just locking short term bump?  I'm still trying to build a full position for SE.

 

No just taking some profits. SE has grown to become a much larger position for me than I am comfortable with.  I didn't sell much, about 10% of my shares.

[formthirteen]

FFH ::)

[Gregmal]

Swung some SPG into BAM, bought a few MSFT calls, and got a few shares of FOXWU IPO

[boilermaker75]

As usual, wrote 230-strike 1/29 expiration BRKB puts an an average price of $1.02.

[rkbabang]

Sold some AAPL today and added more BRKB.  Like with SE, just trimming my large high flyers a little bit and putting it in something safer.

[rkbabang]

Just bought the FSLY shares I sold 3 days ago for $127.70 back for $88.50.

 

Just resold those FSLY shares for $103.10 and put more into BRKB and BAM.

[fareastwarriors]

Added to Brk.B

[Castanza]

ATCO

[ERICOPOLY]

One thing that strikes me is that both the inflationist and disinflationist/deflationist camps seem to broadly agree that once you lower interest rates to 0% to spur nominal GDP growth, there's no coming back in real terms.

 

It appears as though they are not lowered to 0% before that problem already appears to exist.

[no_free_lunch]

Buying ffh.  It's a big change for me.  I haven't owned more than a small amount in years.  It appears quite cheap relative to the rest of the market.  It is selling at less than 90% of Sept 30 book value.  Yet with digit and blackberry  and other subs you still have this ability to participate in a rally.  I still very much question BB but as I said, even using Sept 30 prices FFH is cheap.