What are you buying today?

[lnofeisone]

16 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

 

I dont like anything BN related ... sooo ... 

 

BIP is really just an Infrastructure PE firm - they flip everything.  Plus I dont buy LPs ... and BIPC has too high of a C-Corp spread 

That's fair. I saw the sell off and it got me curious. I invest into renewables directly and NEE getting cheaper is a good way to diversify a tad. 

[Spekulatius]

42 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

That's fair. I saw the sell off and it got me curious. I invest into renewables directly and NEE getting cheaper is a good way to diversify a tad. 

Higher interest rates are not kind to renewables, which require enormous Capex and cheap financing to work. there is probably a lesson for BIP there as well.

 

Utility stocks look very iffy to me, due to relatively high valuations and slowing dividend growth. they were a bond substitute during ZIRP and do not look competitive with high grade bond funds that yield 6-7%.

[lnofeisone]

20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Higher interest rates are not kind to renewables, which require enormous Capex and cheap financing to work. there is probably a lesson for BIP there as well.

 

Utility stocks look very iffy to me, due to relatively high valuations and slowing dividend growth. they were a bond substitute during ZIRP and do not look competitive with high grade bond funds that yield 6-7%.

I agree 100%. Renewable game right now is very locale-specific on the financing side. The question then becomes, at what price does NEE become attractive. 

[jfan]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Higher interest rates are not kind to renewables, which require enormous Capex and cheap financing to work. there is probably a lesson for BIP there as well.

 

Utility stocks look very iffy to me, due to relatively high valuations and slowing dividend growth. they were a bond substitute during ZIRP and do not look competitive with high grade bond funds that yield 6-7%.

 

40 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I agree 100%. Renewable game right now is very locale-specific on the financing side. The question then becomes, at what price does NEE become attractive. 

I guess that's why Altius thinks there is potential applying a royalty model of financing in this space 

 

Bought more NTDOY 

[Cod Liver Oil]

Bought more LHX at 174. Deciding how to size it. Acquisitions always create some murk.

Buying more Nintendo overnight, already large.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[Gregmal]

Added more Nintendo. 

[ourkid8]

Added more BN. 

[dealraker]

Stuff that puts you to sleep.  Siemens; Parker Hannafin; Dover.

[Paarslaars]

Restarted a position in GXE

[tnathan]

Bought a lot of WABC, OFG, and PTLO

[Spekulatius]

On 9/28/2023 at 9:42 AM, lnofeisone said:

I agree 100%. Renewable game right now is very locale-specific on the financing side. The question then becomes, at what price does NEE become attractive. 

I don't know the answer to that question, but the stock does not necessarily looks all that cheap. They have earnings of ~$3.1, so that's a 18.4 PE. Maybe NEE deserves a premium to the utility sector (which i view as generally unattractive at current interest rates), but then we have the issue with the drop down MLP NEP.

 

Dropdown MLP are nothing but trouble, they work for a while as long as they can show rapid growth, but once they become too large, growth tends to wane. They are also always at the mercy of capital markets for fresh equity and debt. not a great combo if things become a bit more tight in capital markets.

 

My thinking is that NEE as the GP needs to keep NEP alive and most likely they will have to fold this back in the mothership at some point if it's cost of capital becomes excessive. So more dilution, slower growth is on the horizon.

 

This is going to take a while to work out. In the meantime, there are a lot of dividend growth investor apes in this stock, some are still buying the dip and there is tax loss season coming.

 

Of course Brad Thomas is in this one too:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632662-nextera-energy-one-of-best-times-in-5-years-to-buy-this-dividend-aristocrat

 

I know this is more thinking out loud (and writing it down) than answering your question.

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Spekulatius

[ValueMaven]

Bought more NEE today 

[Dinar]

Sold MSGE Nov 30 puts at $1.15 today.  

[Spekulatius]

Added a bit more RI.PA / PRNGY today and NTDOY yesterday.

 

I have also been reading up on HEIO.AS (Heineken Holding) that @Dinar mentioned recently. Looks somewhat cheap, but they have been missing their earnings forecast for the first half and now backloading the second half. They will have an update mid October and at time, the stock could get wobbly  - at least that was the case last year.

[John Hjorth]

30 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Added a bit more RI.PA / PRNGY today and NTDOY yesterday.

 

Certainly interesting.

 

I wonder if market participants are sobering up.

 

... I mean I don't think we have seen any pics of CoBF members friday afternoon shopping cart contents lately, so everybody in the industry are putting robes in their sails, reducing credit times for customers, reducing sizes of inventories, looking with a comb on staffing, and trowing a critical view on the base of fixed costs.

[Dinar]

21 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Certainly interesting.

 

I wonder if market participants are sobering up.

 

... I mean I don't think we have seen any pics of CoBF members friday afternoon shopping cart contents lately, so everybody in the industry are putting robes in their sails, reducing credit times for customers, reducing sizes of inventories, looking with a comb on staffing, and trowing a critical view on the base of fixed costs.

IKEA is now running sales in NY, I have not seen that in years.

[jfan]

Joe

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Certainly interesting.

 

I wonder if market participants are sobering up.

 

... I mean I don't think we have seen any pics of CoBF members friday afternoon shopping cart contents lately, so everybody in the industry are putting robes in their sails, reducing credit times for customers, reducing sizes of inventories, looking with a comb on staffing, and trowing a critical view on the base of fixed costs.

Sobering up - now that is a bleak outlook. Maybe they are switching from high end Russian Vodka to Bud light that's on sale with a coupon.

 

Also Ikea is constantly run sales - not sure that means much.

 

@dealraker buying wine at Walmart left me already in dispair - almost forgot about that one until @John Hjorth posted. Why not just buy the house brands at Costco to damage the liver with stuff that's worth it?

 

I just opened one of these bottles the other night to support the Pernod Ricard cause:

https://kenwoodvineyards.com/wines/jack-london-series/jack-london-cabernet-sauvignon-2018

 

(bought this one on a sale for ~$20 if I remember correctly)

Edited September 29, 2023 by Spekulatius

[RedLion]

Another modest condo in Maui to be rented. 

[dealraker]

27 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Sobering up - now that is a bleak outlook. Maybe they are switching from high end Russian Vodka to Bud light that's on sale with a coupon.

 

Also Ikea is constantly run sales - not sure that means much.

 

@dealraker buying wine at Walmart left me already in dispair - almost forgot about that one until @John Hjorth posted. Why not just buy the house brands at Costco to damage the liver with stuff that's worth it?

 

I just opened one of these bottles the other night to support the Pernod Ricard cause:

https://kenwoodvineyards.com/wines/jack-london-series/jack-london-cabernet-sauvignon-2018

 

(bought this one on a sale for ~$20 if I remember correctly)

spek we love the wine we drink, fairly dry chardonnay.  And I do drink the lightest of beers and Bud Light is one of my fav's.  I sit on the porch of our Workman Road farm with cousins and brother in law on late Sunday afternoon at a 200 plus year old house with bees in the siding and a fancy outhouse.  And the bunch sitting there most days would tally $250 mil in net worth for sure.  The Bud Light's, Aldi wine, overalls and suspenders...it rocks!  I do have $50,000 of bikes of the pure pedal type though...gotta get your priorities straight.  

Edited September 29, 2023 by dealraker
grammar and spellin'

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, dealraker said:

spek we love the wine we drink, fairly dry chardonnay.  And I do drink the lightest of beers and Bud Light is one of my fav's.  I sit on the porch of our Workman Road farm with cousins and brother in law on late Sunday afternoon at a 200 plus year old house with bees in the siding and a fancy outhouse.  And the bunch sitting there most days would tally $250 mil in net worth for sure.  The Bud Light's, Aldi wine, overalls and suspenders...it rocks!  I do have $50,000 of bikes of the pure pedal type though...gotta get your priorities straight.  

You must be wealthy. I do it up with Natty Light. Loved it as a kid. Never really understood why I needed to arbitrarily find something else to like just cuz I got older LOL.

 

Although my bourbon habit has gotten a little fancy lately. Cant win em all I guess. 

[dealraker]

Just now, Gregmal said:

You must be wealthy. I do it up with Natty Light. Loved it as a kid. Never really understood why I needed to arbitrarily find something else to like just cuz I got older LOL.

 

Although my bourbon habit has gotten a little fancy lately. Cant win em all I guess. 

Uncle Bob Sink, remember...commander of Band of Brothers...was known througout the Army as "Burbon Bob."  That's in the book and movie.  LOL.  Of course I only remember him post Army career and also of course not once sober!  LOL.  Only with time did I re-set my respect tab for that man.  Damn stupid kid I was.  

[Saluki]

I added a little NTDOY. Still building a position slowly when I get dividends or trim a little on something else.

 

[Spekulatius]

A classic - durable portfolio in one picture - arms, tobacco and beer.

 

[Spekulatius]

25 minutes ago, dealraker said:

spek we love the wine we drink, fairly dry chardonnay.  And I do drink the lightest of beers and Bud Light is one of my fav's.  I sit on the porch of our Workman Road farm with cousins and brother in law on late Sunday afternoon at a 200 plus year old house with bees in the siding and a fancy outhouse.  And the bunch sitting there most days would tally $250 mil in net worth for sure.  The Bud Light's, Aldi wine, overalls and suspenders...it rocks!  I do have $50,000 of bikes of the pure pedal type though...gotta get your priorities straight.  

Try Dry Riesling's from the Finger lakes and thank me later. I get mine from Buttonwood winery (member of the wine club) - they have very reasonable shipping. Those finger lake wines are harder to get in stores (perhaps a wine discounter will do it in your area).

 

FWIW, Kenwood was taken out by Pernod Ricard in 2014. Been buying their wines since I moved to the US (lived 3 miles from their tasting room for a good while). They had awesome fall sales (50% off almost everything) for friends and family which was almost everyone who lived in the area :-). Unfortunately the new owner (Pernod Ricard) has ceased these sales, although they do have sales that are good deals from time to time. Sign up for free to get on the mailing list. The Jack London wines are very good - and Pernod Ricard has improved this vineyards and the marketing since they owned it.

 

That said, wine is not a great business - to many rich people are in it just for the status and the bragging rights, I suppose.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Spekulatius