What are you buying today?

[Santayana]

2 hours ago, cwericb said:

Just wondering what shares in Fairfax (FFH.TO) would look like on that chart?

 

Similar to gold as a final result, but a very different path getting there.

[Kizion]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

I’m not a huge fan of gold, but central banks around the world are buying record amounts of it. I think you’d be better off with certain types of equities or real estate, but I also think that central bankers are generally pretty smart when it comes to money.

 

Bitcoin is a hard pass though.

 

 

What would be the alternative for central banks? What are they owning today (US Treasuries?)? 

Could (are they allowed to / is it common that) they buy other assets such as oil, land or stocks? Because if they cannot buy these latter (productive/utility) assets, than they buying gold is maybe just "the best of the worst". 

 

Edited April 18, 2025 by Kizion

[thowed]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

 

Wouldn't this be right up there as a grade A chart crime?  I started my professional investing career in 2000-2001 and as we all know it was a huge blow-off top in equities and a major low before the beginning of a huge bull market in gold.  By selecting the year 2000 as a starting point, they are selecting opposite extremes for both assets.

 

People who try to convince or win arguments with stuff like this are being intellectually dishonest at best

 

Thanks - was just thinking the same.  Good reminder of how charts can be a useful tool... IF you know the contextual history that goes along with the timespan.

[Blake Hampton]

1 hour ago, Kizion said:

What would be the alternative for central banks? What are they owning today (US Treasuries?)? 

Could (are they allowed to / is it common that) they buy other assets such as oil, land or stocks? Because if they cannot buy these latter (productive/utility) assets, than they buying gold is maybe just "the best of the worst". 

 

No you're right.

[indirect]

On 4/18/2025 at 4:08 AM, Spekulatius said:

Bought a bit more PBR-A in my tax deferred accounts. I like to recycle the dividends I receive into more shares at opportune times.

You will pay brazilian taxes on the dividend which will be non deductible when you file your taxes, whereas if stock is in taxable account then those brazilian taxes paid will be deducible on US tax return. Is my understanding right?

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, indirect said:

You will pay brazilian taxes on the dividend which will be non deductible when you file your taxes, whereas if stock is in taxable account then those brazilian taxes paid will be deducible on US tax return. Is my understanding right?

The Brazilian taxes I paid so far are very small.

[Sinbius]

I have bought a bit of ASML...monopoly with tailwinds for growth (..longterm...)...and it is an European company..in order to diversify a bit away from US and from $...

 

 

...searching for more EU companies...preferably not in tech (I am overweight in tech)....

Edited April 21, 2025 by Sinbius

[frommi]

more NOMD

[gfp]

I got some order fills on Advance Auto Parts and Sky Harbour this morning.  New shareholder woot woot

 

We gonna sell to poor people and bezos and nobody in between 

[John Hjorth]

Got filled on some tiny low ball [under the belt?] orders on JOE today.

[cubsfan]

19 minutes ago, gfp said:

I got some order fills on Advance Auto Parts and Sky Harbour this morning.  New shareholder woot woot

 

We gonna sell to poor people and bezos and nobody in between 

 

Good one, fix your car on the oily driveway or fly your new Cessna Citation!

 

I've done plenty of the former, and none of the later!

[Spooky]

Picked up some more shares of AXP.

[Spooky]

On 4/18/2025 at 12:32 PM, Milu said:

While I agree that when given the choice productive assets are likely better than unproductive assets. In reality though unless you are 100% invested at all times you will generally end up with a portion of your net worth in cash. The decision then becomes whether to invest your cash in productive assets at high prices (in the case of a highly valued market) or hold your cash in t-bills(like Buffett does) while you wait for valuations to get more reasonable. The main risk with that though is to potential to have your cash inflated away meaning you are losing purchasing power each year you sit in t-bills. What are the alternatives, perhaps instead of having all your cash in t-bills you might consider diversifying into places like gold (5000 years as a store of value) or possible Bitcoin (the new upstart). 

 

Over the last 200+ years you would have been better off holding t-bills than gold if you are looking at real returns.

[Spooky]

On 4/18/2025 at 8:19 AM, Kizion said:

 

"If you own an ounce of gold now and you caress it for the next hundred years, you'll have an ounce of gold 100 years from now. If you own 100 acres of farmland, you'll also have 100 acres of farmland 100 years from now, and you'll have taken the crops for 100 years and sold them and presumably bought more farmland with the proceeds. It is very hard for an unproductive investment to beat productive investments over any long period of time."

 

"We would much prefer some asset that is going to be useful whether the currency is worth what it is today or 10% of what it is today... We would not trade the ownership of those kinds of assets for a hunk of the yellow metal which has very little real utility"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETzvS2g8LC4

I'm just not smart enough to be critical on those arguments. 

 

I love Buffett's thought experiment if you owned all the gold in the world - it would be a cube that would fill the inside of a baseball diamond. 

 

The cube of gold will produce nothing in the next hundred years (or, for that matter, thousands of years).

 

The cube of gold will not pay you interest or dividends, and it won't grow earnings.

 

You can fondle the cube, but it won't respond.

[Milu]

12 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Over the last 200+ years you would have been better off holding t-bills than gold if you are looking at real returns.

Do you have the data to back that up? Would be curious to see how they calculate the returns.

[Spooky]

9 minutes ago, Milu said:

Do you have the data to back that up? Would be curious to see how they calculate the returns.

This chart is from Li Lu’s paper on value investing in China but the source is from Jeremy Siegel

[Milu]

30 minutes ago, Spooky said:

This chart is from Li Lu’s paper on value investing in China but the source is from Jeremy Siegel

Thanks, that’s interesting to look at. Gold certainly doing its job of maintaining purchasing power. I wonder how this chart would have played out in any other country other than US. The two hundred year comparison between gold and the t-bill equivalent in Japan, Germany, Russia, China and likely every other country would have painted quite the different story. 

[Gregmal]

More NVO

[rkbabang]

On 4/9/2025 at 10:40 AM, rkbabang said:

I may be buying 400 more shares of JOE at $38.70 in 8 days.  I had a limit order fill yesterday, I sold 4 APR17 $40 puts for $1.30.  Not a bad price if I get put to and I keep the $1.30 if I don't.

 

I never got put to.  I just sold 4 more puts ( May 2025 $40 ) for $1.45.   I'll probably get put to this time. If not, I'll do it again for June.

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, Milu said:

Thanks, that’s interesting to look at. Gold certainly doing its job of maintaining purchasing power. I wonder how this chart would have played out in any other country other than US. The two hundred year comparison between gold and the t-bill equivalent in Japan, Germany, Russia, China and likely every other country would have painted quite the different story. 

 

It's a good question. In more recent versions of Siegel's stocks for the long run he looks at foreign jurisdictions. In Germany / Japan, Europe holders of government bonds and bills didn't do so well because of WWII. The interesting thing, however, is that holders of stocks ended up doing well on a real basis over the long run (not as well as the US obviously but still positive real returns).

 

China / Russia are different stories. They do not have rule of law and investor protections available to the traditional developed market economies.

Edited April 21, 2025 by Spooky

[Hsmpanl]

Small adds to existing positions in JOE and OGN. 

[Lance]

Trimmed EL Financial, wrote puts on M.

 

Thanks

Lance

[sleepydragon]

bought some lmvh

[rosemontseneca]

SDRL VAL

[Castanza]

CCJ