S&P 500 put premiums are so expensive, while calls are so inexpensive, that it is possible to make an extraordinary wager that equities will rally sharply over the next three months.
Selling just one three-month S&P 500 put with a strike price 5% below the market is enough to buy eight S&P 500 calls with identical expirations that are 5% above the market. The funding ratio of puts to calls is at a 10-year high, according to Mandy Xu, a Credit Suisse derivatives strategist. Over the past decade, the average ratio was 2.3 calls for every put.
The current setup is either a great trade or a recipe for extraordinary losses. But if you believe the next three months will be strong—and a reader recently emailed that “if” is one of the smallest words in the dictionary, but has the most meaning—getting potentially free upside in return for taking on the risk of a 5% decline is attractive.
From today’s Barrons
I wonder what the board's thoughts are on this trade. I believe its a good contrarian bet, but not complete conviction.