What are you buying today?

[WFF]

1658.hk PSBC, thank you discounting it further Mr. Market.  

[Libs]

HQI. Breaking my sizing rule.

[changegonnacome]

APPL Puts......lots of fund managers hiding out in APPL.......but the confidence termites are making their way up to even the mighty fruit......was gonna buy SPY puts....but from here I think APPL is a superior market hedge...higher P/E, higher beta, lower vol, COVID beneficiary so over earning in 2020/21.......tougher COVID comps moving forward.....APPL is moving up iPhone launch date to try to squeeze a week or two of iPhone sales into their fiscal 4th quarter....artificially moving launch dates up & trying to 'make the quarter' is a robbing Peter to pay Paul game......maybe they make 4th Qtr but fiscal 1st Qtr could be a disaster...buying Leaps to capture both

[Castanza]

1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

APPL Puts......lots of fund managers hiding out in APPL.......but the confidence termites are making their way up to even the mighty fruit......was gonna buy SPY puts....but from here I think APPL is a superior market hedge...higher P/E, higher beta, lower vol, COVID beneficiary so over earning in 2020/21.......tougher COVID comps moving forward.....APPL is moving up iPhone launch date to try to squeeze a week or two of iPhone sales into their fiscal 4th quarter....artificially moving launch dates up & trying to 'make the quarter' is a robbing Peter to pay Paul game......maybe they make 4th Qtr but fiscal 1st Qtr could be a disaster...buying Leaps to capture both

 

Premiums don't look great on these 

[changegonnacome]

3 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Premiums don't look great on these 

 

You think they're expensive? Relative to what I think is going to happen I consider them cheap.

[Castanza]

6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

You think they're expensive? Relative to what I think is going to happen I consider them cheap.

I agree with the thesis; makes sense and seems to be playing out. Some of the March OTM puts have IV around 40+. So not expensive but not really cheap either. Different strokes for different folks. Hope you crush it

[Viking]

Adding to FFH. US$505 is a great price.
 

Continuing to lighten up on my oil holdings today… up 16-17%; single digit weighting now. Love the wicked volatility in energy stocks. Happy to take quick gains with my commodity holdings.

[changegonnacome]

46 minutes ago, Castanza said:

I agree with the thesis

 

Yeah I'll mix it up with just some straight shorts of the underlying....I consider myself a good Apple bellweather.....I've switched my whole family setup over to M1's & 5G iphones over the last 18-24 months......I've no reason to upgrade to anything for a few years now....the products are great and will stay good enough for at least 4-5 years on the computing side and another 2+yrs on the phones.....my nerd friends are the same...AAPL is gonna hit an airpocket of demand i think on just pure COVID/product supercycle dynamics & then added to that just the macro in their end markets.

Edited August 23, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

Yea I’ve had the same aapl trade on a few times and just come to the conclusion it’s a tough nut to crack and that there’s better stuff to play on the short side. Even if you hit you’re going to have to nail the sell/cover timing bc it will be first to rebound. 

[throw123]

kmx

[changegonnacome]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea I’ve had the same aapl trade on a few times and just come to the conclusion it’s a tough nut to crack and that there’s better stuff to play on the short side.

 

Yeah timing might be a little difficult and why I'll mix with the underlying but for the first time in a long time with Fed funds where it is.....you get paid a little spread on shorts while you wait even with owing AAPL's dividend the spread is still good enough

Edited August 23, 2022 by changegonnacome

[nwoodman]

BRk.B, KMX

[lnofeisone]

Added to MSGE and CASH. 

[KJP]

IAC

[sleepydragon]

Jpm

[throw123]

googl

[n.r98]

Bought a little $KSS. Trading at trough P/E of 9-10x, average EPS was $4-5 pre COV and share count has reduced bigly so any reversion could bring this back up to $40-50? Also stock trades below BV which has never happened except at Covid troughs. This is the reversion to the mean story.

 

Insiders just bought cum $1m worth of stock past week after whiff of a print. 7-8b real estate portfolio value. Perhaps mgmt extrapolated cov environment and thought stock should be worth oodles more but perhaps not anymore and be more willing to sell the co now? Idk. But seems like a decent r/r apart from the icky balance sheet.

 

 

[flikhopper]

On 8/10/2022 at 11:22 AM, kh812000 said:

AEHR.  Undiscovered play on SiC.  Earnings growing 70%+ trading at PE of 25x.

 

$CVV

[nafregnum]

On 8/23/2022 at 8:29 AM, changegonnacome said:

APPL Puts......lots of fund managers hiding out in APPL.......but the confidence termites are making their way up to even the mighty fruit......was gonna buy SPY puts....but from here I think APPL is a superior market hedge...higher P/E, higher beta, lower vol, COVID beneficiary so over earning in 2020/21.......tougher COVID comps moving forward.....APPL is moving up iPhone launch date to try to squeeze a week or two of iPhone sales into their fiscal 4th quarter....artificially moving launch dates up & trying to 'make the quarter' is a robbing Peter to pay Paul game......maybe they make 4th Qtr but fiscal 1st Qtr could be a disaster...buying Leaps to capture both

 

The thesis is interesting.  I've never used puts before, does this sound reasonable below?

 

Looking at the March and April '23 puts at the $100 strike which look to be going for about $1 right now.  If AAPL disappoints in the next couple quarters and drops from today's $169 down to say $140 by January '23 then it seems like the puts might be going for $4 at that point (about 2-3 months from expiry) ... I honestly don't see it going as low as $100, but am just curious if it would be reasonable to see today's $1 put price be worth $4 if the current price deteriorated from $169 to around $140 with about 3 months remaining before the options expire.

 

 

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, nafregnum said:

 

The thesis is interesting.  I've never used puts before, does this sound reasonable below?

 

Looking at the March and April '23 puts at the $100 strike which look to be going for about $1 right now.  If AAPL disappoints in the next couple quarters and drops from today's $169 down to say $140 by January '23 then it seems like the puts might be going for $4 at that point (about 2-3 months from expiry) ... I honestly don't see it going as low as $100, but am just curious if it would be reasonable to see today's $1 put price be worth $4 if the current price deteriorated from $169 to around $140 with about 3 months remaining before the options expire.

 

 

No chance. Especially if it takes two quarters of time.

[changegonnacome]

7 minutes ago, nafregnum said:

Looking at the March and April '23 puts at the $100 strike which look to be going for about $1 right now.  If AAPL disappoints in the next couple quarters and drops from today's $169 down to say $140 by January '23 then it seems like the puts might be going for $4 at that point (about 2-3 months from expiry) ... I honestly don't see it going as low as $100, but am just curious if it would be reasonable to see today's $1 put price be worth $4 if the current price deteriorated from $169 to around $140 with about 3 months remaining before the options expire.

 

 

Timing is everything with these.......which is why Ive shorted underlying too and juiced it with puts.........AAPL, IMO, will without even a deterioration in earnings (which is coming but might not come quick enough for my puts) will re-test and likely break the lows from June ~$130......this will be a pure, oh shit, higher for longer Fed/discount rate move.....if the 10yr is at 5%...you have to ask yourself wtf your doing holding Apple at 3.8% FCF yield and where the biz has been over earnings such that at the current share price the FCF yield could easily drop to a 2-handle once earnings revert to 2019 levels + inflation....so thats the thesis......macro and micro.....lets see. This is not investment advice.

 

I still think Tesla, Coinbase, Robinhood etc. are gonna puke again soon so have got some of those on the short side. AAPL is just a kind of better version of an SPY short given its re-touched it ATH's (SPY hasnt).....think SPY earnings are gonna puke too but AAPL's will puke worse....the grind lower as both the numerator AND denominator come down is gonna be worse for AAPL i think just given its more highly geared.

[nafregnum]

Just now, Gregmal said:

No chance. Especially if it takes two quarters of time.

 

Thanks, so are you saying, "No chance" meaning the price of the put wouldn't swing that much on such a small decline as $169->$140?  And by "Especially if it takes two quarters of time" are you saying that the option's value would improve the best if the price decline occurred really fast like a 5% drop in a day kind of thing?

 

I bought myself just 1 put option ($100 strike Mar'23) today just to watch it swing around and try to learn how it behaves over time.

[Gregmal]

Yea I don’t see it getting anywhere near there if you take 3-6 months and only get to 140. You’d probably also need the VIX over 30 again. And even then if you’re talking Spring 2023 puts and expecting $140 to take til January then you really need to conceptualize how insane that is. You’d be lucky to get $2 because the odds of another 40% pullback in 3-4 months just isn’t there. 
 

And yes. With options, the sooner the move the better. Time is literally money.

[nafregnum]

8 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Timing is everything with these.......which is why Ive shorted underlying too and juiced it with puts.........AAPL, IMO, will without even a deterioration in earnings (which is coming but might not come quick enough for my puts) will re-test and likely break the lows from June ~$130......this will be a pure, oh shit, higher for longer Fed/discount rate move.....if the 10yr is at 5%...you have to ask yourself wtf your doing holding Apple at 3.8% FCF yield and where the biz has been over earnings such that at the current share price the FCF yield could easily drop to a 2-handle once earnings revert to 2019 levels + inflation....so thats the thesis......macro and micro.....lets see. This is not investment advice.

 

I still think Tesla, Coinbase, Robinhood etc. are gonna puke again soon so have got some of those on the short side. AAPL is just a kind of better version of an SPY short given its re-touched it ATH's (SPY hasnt).....think SPY earnings are gonna puke too but AAPL's will puke worse....the grind lower as both the numerator AND denominator come down is gonna be worse for AAPL i think just given its more highly geared.

 

It's a compelling thesis -- I ended up buying just 1 put so I can watch it swing around without feeling euphoria/dread and get a handle on it.  What I really can't figure out is "If X happens, how will the put options respond" for various values of X.  Just trying to understand the expected outcomes and how the option would realistically behave.

 

Example: I bought some OBE Jan'23 12.50 strike calls for 0.60 a few weeks ago, just to watch them.  They were up 40% a couple days ago when OBE jumped 10%, and I could've sold them for an 80% overall gain that day.  Since then they're back down to $0.95 for an overall gain of around 56% ... seems like something I just need to pick a big up day to sell.  

[nafregnum]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea I don’t see it getting anywhere near there if you take 3-6 months and only get to 140. You’d probably also need the VIX over 30 again. And even then if you’re talking Spring 2023 puts and expecting $140 to take til January then you really need to conceptualize how insane that is. You’d be lucky to get $2 because the odds of another 40% pullback in 3-4 months just isn’t there. 
 

And yes. With options, the sooner the move the better. Time is literally money.

 

Thanks a lot for the extra info!  I see what you mean now about how nobody would consider a fall to $100 likely if it already fell to $140 over the course of a number of months.  Big sudden swings in price are where the options seem to pay out the best.