Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

Gents, please note that it's still only some hours ago, that alwaysinvert posted here on CoBF today:

 

I still think the main complication is that he can't get size and this was tested a bit in Q3 2018, with the result being that the stock gained pretty much every day for a month. If he could get $10b worth of stock at $200, I'm sure he wouldn't mind. But the issue is that if he ratcheted up buybacks fast in any one period, the market would be informed before he could gain much ground. He needs to somehow convince the market that he won't backstop the stock price and has failed to do so thus far. Hence the tepid buybacks.

 

This makes it sound like buybacks is the only thing on his mind, which obviously is not true. However, any feasible strategy for long-term use of funds without dividending out portions must necessarily include sizable buybacks.

 

It just so striking. This - today - is his [Mr. Buffett's] favorite playground.

Posted

Added to BRK.B

 

Started a position in WFC, pretty much because of the last half dozen or so posts by koshigoe.

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/profile/?area=showposts;u=9320

 

Saw this posted on another board today as well

http://sabercapitalmgt.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/WFC-Unexciting-Idea-But-Exciting-Value-2019-07-01.pdf

 

Wells looks good to me.  I hope it's correct that Berkshire can stop selling.

 

Nice. Rings true.

 

Sounds like a good Peter Lynch investment story.

 

With a front run.

Posted

Wesco

 

I owned this in the past but I feel like other distributors like MSM are better values. WCC seems to rent out their balance sheet to customers - their cash flow they stable and they have a fair amount of leverage.

Posted

"Cash.

 

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more."

 

Did you make money with your puts? If so, which ones and at what price did you buy them (SPY level?).

 

It is pretty tempting this morning to buy puts with the VIX way down, S&P up almost 1% and a huge down gap on the chart from yesterday which could be hard to fill, at least in the short term.

 

The SPY was at $277-278 last evening until the Chinese decided to fix their currency a little higher. Then we have Kudlow saying that Trump is flexible on tarrif this morning.

 

Of course, it would only take a little round of golf between the two to make the market reverse way higher but, there seems to be too many issues now, economic weakness and too little value for the SPY to clearly break to a new high.

 

Historically, I have found that cash is the best hedge (if you are worried, it will be there and not budge) while I have had very mixed results with puts.

 

So very curious as to how you do it?

 

Cardboard

 

Posted

"Cash.

 

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more."

 

Did you make money with your puts? If so, which ones and at what price did you buy them (SPY level?).

 

It is pretty tempting this morning to buy puts with the VIX way down, S&P up almost 1% and a huge down gap on the chart from yesterday which could be hard to fill, at least in the short term.

 

The SPY was at $277-278 last evening until the Chinese decided to fix their currency a little higher. Then we have Kudlow saying that Trump is flexible on tarrif this morning.

 

Of course, it would only take a little round of golf between the two to make the market reverse way higher but, there seems to be too many issues now, economic weakness and too little value for the SPY to clearly break to a new high.

 

Historically, I have found that cash is the best hedge (if you are worried, it will be there and not budge) while I have had very mixed results with puts.

 

So very curious as to how you do it?

 

Cardboard

 

I have also had mixed results with puts. I made money in late 2015 with them, but have definitely lost more than I've made over the years when I've had them on.

 

The puts I had purchased were the 1/2020 contracts @ 250 strike. I had been accumulating for the last few weeks  between $2.50 and $2.25.

 

My overall view is that we're on the cusp of the recession with market activity in January and December confirming a market topping process. We also have economic data confirming the forward looking concerns of stocks and bonds.

 

I've been building cash since March or so  - went from fully invested to 60/40, but when I saw the VIX was as low as 12, I couldn't help myself but to speculate buy purchasing puts.

 

Worked out alright this time, but still figuring out the strategy to determine how best to implement in the future.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...