Michael Burry’s current holdings

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

What is his track record over the last 10 years - is if public?

 

He is no hero, he rolled the dice with his investors money.  He has been top picking and recession predicting ever since.  As Spek says, probably would have been better to stay away from the macro stuff.

 

If he's not a hero then no fund manager is. He beat the market by 28% a year for six years before he even found the Big Short. Combined it makes him a top tier all time great investor. 

 

His record since is unknown since he disavowed running outside money after the Big Short experience.

Edited September 19, 2023 by ValueArb

[Sweet]

9 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

If he's not a hero then no fund manager is. He beat the market by 28% a year for six years before he even found the Big Short. Combined it makes him a top tier all time great investor. 

 

His record since is unknown since he disavowed running outside money after the Big Short experience.

I’m not referring to his performance. Do other funds managers go off the reservation sticking their money in a macro bet outside the scope of what the investors believed the fund was about?  Sure they made out well in the end, but that’s not his money to be fucking around with.

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by Sweet

[ValueArb]

13 hours ago, Sweet said:

I’m not referring to his performance. Do other funds managers go off the reservation sticking their money in a macro bet outside the scope of what the investors believed the fund was about?  Sure they made out well in the end, but that’s not his money to be fucking around with.

 

 

I don’t know what his investors expected him to do or whether the big short was outside the parameters of what he was allowed to do.  

[Sweet]

Not to pick on Burry, but predicting tops is hard:

 

 

Stanley Druckenmiller has made many similar top calls, but he’s more of a trading than investor and he still does well.

[no_free_lunch]

3 hours ago, Sweet said:

Not to pick on Burry, but predicting tops is hard:

 

 

Stanley Druckenmiller has made many similar top calls, but he’s more of a trading than investor and he still does well.

I think this is a great link and so relevant. There is real risk to being bearish.

[rogermunibond]

Ask John Hussman

[Gregmal]

The point of watching what someone is doing, is to learn or stimulate idea generation. Theres plenty of investment guys who I think are decent, but theres also a certain class that I think are totally dangerous. Theyre dangerous because clearly they have enough money to live however they want....right there they are different than most people whom are going to follow them. But because of that....in contrast to lets say a guy like Buffett, or Tepper....they develop this kind of self defining persona. Im not convinced its 100% a chosen and purposeful embrace, but it is very obvious from a few feet back. Where making money isnt good enough anymore. They have to try to make money in a showoffy way. In a more complicated way. In a more contrarian way. Would be like Tom Brady or Joe Montana no longer trying to just throw completions, but only ones 20 yards down the field into triple coverage. I mean look at the very reason people even know who Mike Burry is....because he supposedly walked into GS, DB, etc and specifically created a brand new and exotic instrument that most still didnt even understand after he did it! Thats your "ah let me copy Burry" awakening call? It was a gripe I had with Prem for most of the past decade. Its why you still know Einhorn is lost....after the pathetic decade he put in, he finally has a decent stretch, and then you look under the hood and....his top position, which is something like 30%++ of his fund, does 130% or whatever in the quarter and you think man! good for him he must be crushing it, and then you see he only made 15% on the Q and its like Oh....guess he's still shorting all this other crap trying to be the smartest guy in the room....why you should just never listen to Kyle Bass. Or the dudes like that who just always seem to be opining about something "ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE AND BAD!!!!" being "just around the corner"....

 

So, in summary, be careful what you fill your head with and dont let guys who's main objective isnt making money, infect you with their rhetoric. 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Gregmal

[Jaygo]

I truly believe that successful investing is hampered by extremely high intelligence. This stuff is not that complicated to do reasonably well and most very high IQ people need to find esoteric shit to do to feel good about themselves.

 

Ive said before ive got a buddy who is dumb as a bag of hammers and he has time and time again crushed it on simple and inelegant but obvious in hindsight investments. Facebook ipo, lake shore gold, Florida real estate in 2010 or 2011, oil in 2020, 

 

just loads of stuff and im like, huh you did what? ya well im on facebook and everybody i know is so its a got to be good buy. Well i went to Fort Lauderdale once and there's no snow in winter so I bought a 3 bed condo for 60 grand. He still has a damn Hotmail account and he's 8x his money on google. 

 

I just wished my lack of intelligence would translate to some gains lol

 

 

 

[Saluki]

25 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

I truly believe that successful investing is hampered by extremely high intelligence. This stuff is not that complicated to do reasonably well and most very high IQ people need to find esoteric shit to do to feel good about themselves.

 

 

I agree. This goes back to Buffett's simple Rule number 1:  Don't lose money.  By way of analogy, most cancer research is into the complicated stuff like killing cancer cells, but not other cells, or keeping them from replicating.  Very little research goes into prevention with things like healthier lifestyle. That is much more effective in reducing deaths from cancer because you can't die from it if you never get it. Rule Number 1.  But if you spent years of your life doing complex science (or math), you probably don't want to work on the simple stuff.  It's like how architects are obsessed with putting cantilevers into their designs. It'to prove that they are at a skill set above the guy who designed the extension your brother in laws house. 

 

It's hard as you add more and more tools to your tool chest to remember that you don't have to use them. Sometimes it's chipping away the marble, not adding more clay.  I remember an MMA guy telling me once about how to win a fight. "If you're on the bottom, get on top. If you're on top, stay on top." It's not impossible to win if you're on the bottom and someone is dropping elbows on your head, but it's an easier path to victory if you are on top. 

 

 

[Cod Liver Oil]

@jaygo  yeah, a couple of my smartest Ivy League friends are the worst investors and have not adjusted their investing styles despite dismal results. If you have an intellectual propensity for difficult problems, that is an investing character defect that should be checked at the door. Lynch, who was probably a savant, had the right idea of turning investing into an everyday man-at-large problem. The key to investing is to pick solvable problems. If you can explain it to your kids and not feel like a fraud, its probably ok.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Sweet said:

Not to pick on Burry, but predicting tops is hard:

 

 

Stanley Druckenmiller has made many similar top calls, but he’s more of a trading than investor and he still does well.

 

 

I'm assuming this is his source from Dec 2015:

 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2015/12/big-short-genius-says-another-crisis-is-coming.html

 

No where does he predicts a crash in months. 

 

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by stahleyp

[Sweet]

I don’t know guys.  I’d argue that if you are very smart, you should be smart enough to get out of your own way.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 9/18/2023 at 7:37 PM, ValueArb said:

 

If he's not a hero then no fund manager is. He beat the market by 28% a year for six years before he even found the Big Short. Combined it makes him a top tier all time great investor. 

 

His record since is unknown since he disavowed running outside money after the Big Short experience.

 

Yea, I dunno what his record has been since. But I know shortly after going private he was buying farmland as a "water is going to be in a shortage" thesis IIRC. Had a whole presentation on vegetables being a vessel for the transportation of water. 

 

And while not totally wrong, he wasn't totally right either. Still probably made a f*cking killing in farms - particularly if he still owns them. 

Edited September 21, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[no_free_lunch]

3 hours ago, Jaygo said:

I truly believe that successful investing is hampered by extremely high intelligence. This stuff is not that complicated to do reasonably well and most very high IQ people need to find esoteric shit to do to feel good about themselves.

 

Ive said before ive got a buddy who is dumb as a bag of hammers and he has time and time again crushed it on simple and inelegant but obvious in hindsight investments. Facebook ipo, lake shore gold, Florida real estate in 2010 or 2011, oil in 2020, 

 

just loads of stuff and im like, huh you did what? ya well im on facebook and everybody i know is so its a got to be good buy. Well i went to Fort Lauderdale once and there's no snow in winter so I bought a 3 bed condo for 60 grand. He still has a damn Hotmail account and he's 8x his money on google. 

 

I just wished my lack of intelligence would translate to some gains lol

 

 

 

Lol. I quite enjoyed this.  It's true, investing shouldn't be complicated.   I spend the first decade getting increasingly complicated and fancy. Been dialing it back ever since.

 

Let us know the next in your face investment he makes.  I got no shame with cloning. 

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, Sweet said:

Stanley Druckenmiller has made many similar top calls, but he’s more of a trading than investor and he still does well.

My guess is that Mike Burry is also more of a trader than investor now.

[Sweet]

He would have to be 

[Sweet]

Market value of the position is 1.6 billion I believe.

 

Another one of Burry’s brilliant macro calls.

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Sweet

[Gregmal]

Tough making a living trying to call 10% fluctuations. 

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

Market value of the position is 1.6 billion I believe.

 

Another one of Burry’s brilliant macro calls.

 

 

I think you meant "notational value". So ultimately he lost at most, maybe $10M in a roughly billion dollar fund?

Edited November 15, 2023 by ValueArb
clarifying its just notational value

[Sweet]

7 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

I think you meant "notational value". So ultimately he lost at most, maybe $10M in a roughly billion dollar fund?

Yes - notional 

[Libs]

On 9/21/2023 at 9:22 AM, Sweet said:

I don’t know guys.  I’d argue that if you are very smart, you should be smart enough to get out of your own way.

You're confusing intelligence with wisdom. They are very distinct things. My friends who are engineers and doctors are very bright, but lack any common 'investing' sense. Buffett (and Munger) are right - once you hit a certain minimum level of intelligence, temperament drives your investment returns.

 

God knows I'm proof of that. 

[Luke]

[bizaro86]

I think Burry and Prem Watsa had the same issue - make huge profits from a spectacular macro call, then spend years trying to repeat that at the cost of significant underperformance. 

[Gamecock-YT]

just have to get rich once

[ValueArb]

11 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

I think Burry and Prem Watsa had the same issue - make huge profits from a spectacular macro call, then spend years trying to repeat that at the cost of significant underperformance. 

 

What evidence is there that Burry isn't still beating the market like a drum?