Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

What do you read every morning Spek?

I don’t have much time in the morning, so there it is:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/earnings

[Parsad]

11 hours ago, Gregmal said:

NYT has easily taken the biggest cliff dive over the past two decades or so. It went from well rounded but center left to full blown propaganda pushing outlet that almost weaponizes its once credible reputation. 

 

NY Post is even worse.  Too many owners dictating what the editors can publish.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

The NYT has some of the best long-form journalism on "people" subjects out of any newspaper. Do you want a well-written article detailing the experiences of a Ukrainian citizen throughout their war? The NYT is almost certainly the best place for something like that.

I still pick up the WSJ first thing though.

 

 

WSJ and the Financial Times are both still very good.  In Canada, the Globe & Mail is still a reliable paper.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

This is somehow J. Powell's fault.

 

I just know it.

 

 

Could be Biden as well!    Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Short and sweet summary about Trumps parade  :

 

 

Hilarious!  Isn't that exactly what we say about the North Koreans.  The U.S. has become North Korea!    Cheers!

[Hektor]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Short and sweet summary about Trumps parade  :

 

[changegonnacome]

 

Oh what a web we weave - when we intervene in places 7,500 miles away from home.

 

Donald has now entered Bibi's parallel universe - where Iran is desperately seeking and running towards a bomb and is weeks away from getting one such that they can destroy Israel/the region/the world and so MUST be stopped at all costs.

 

That idea, that pretense, that public pronouncement once committed to (as Donald has done now) is a potential slippy slope of escalating commitments. Why? Because there are serious question whether you can truly put a nuclear program like Iran's fully to bed with bunker busters and aerial bombardment.....and so the question becomes what happens next when the Iranian's indicate or Israeli intelligence tells us that the program hasn't been sufficiently degraded to make the world truly 'safe'...US assets in the region (men/bases) are killed/destroyed.....well once you've committed to the conceit above....you need to continue....but how....further deepening commitments, ground troops, regime change....that's the pandoras box we've opened up here.

 

Genuinely hope this mission was beyond successful and the Iranian nuclear capability has been buried deep in the ruble.....if it hasn't....the ways things can go from bad to worse from here are endless.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Castanza]

lovely….another war without congressional approval… 
 

[villainx]

War is a time for peace.  

 

 

[Spekulatius]

If you pay attention to the news from MAGA it was not such a big surprise - Tulsi in March:

https://youtube.com/shorts/BW9015qzX3A?si=ugxHNNXYG1C1NKDQ

Then the shift 12 hours  ago:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c056zqn6vvyo

I think the truth is whatever fits the current narrative. My guess is that Iran really pursued a nuclear weapon but probably not in the timeframe discussed. In March the greatest dealmaker of all times throughout  he could negotiate with Iran , so Tulsi did her testimony accordingly. When Israel decided to strike (against Trump wishes) and Trump changed his mind seeing an easy win since Israel did the hard part and wanted in on the action and threw studying under the buss (not that she doesn’t deserve it) and in an Orwellian move Iran is now a nuclear threat and here we are.

 

One thing we know with with wars is that initial wins are the easy part, the hard part if getting any sort of end to it. Iran will learn from this to complete the nuclear program such that it becomes prohibitive to strike them. The are also allied with  Russia which could well help them to complete the weapon and delivery package. We better hope for regime change and if that happens , this will be a great success but if not, this could be one of those forever wars. 

Edited June 22, 2025 by Spekulatius

[EBITDAg]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

lovely….another war without congressional approval… 
 

The last war approved by congress was WW2. Not that any democrats will mention that when they make claims about how this is unconstitutional (which it’s not). 

[Parsad]

 

Frankly, I think he ended up doing what nobody else really wanted to risk over the last 40 years.

 

Bibi gave him an opportunity and he took it.  Could have gone very wrong, but looks like (at least for now) that it was a gift horse!  I think Iran has no choice but to come to the diplomatic table now. 

 

The only concern is that the demise of the Iranian regime doesn't give rise to the next novel terrorist group by ISIS or someone else raising their importance in the region. 

 

Cheers!

[Marco Van Basten]

26 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If you pay attention to the news from MAGA it was not such a big surprise - Tulsi in March:

https://youtube.com/shorts/BW9015qzX3A?si=ugxHNNXYG1C1NKDQ

Then the shift 12 hours  ago:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c056zqn6vvyo

I think the truth is whatever fits the current narrative. My guess is that Iran really pursued a nuclear weapon but probably not in the timeframe discussed. In March the greatest dealmaker of all times throughout  he could negotiate with Iran , so Tulsi did her testimony accordingly. When Israel decided to strike (against Trump wishes) and Trump changed his mind seeing an easy win since Israel did the hard part and wanted in on the action and threw studying under the buss (not that she doesn’t deserve it) and in an Orwellian move Iran is now a nuclear threat and here we are.

 

One thing we know with with wars is that initial wins are the easy part, the hard part if getting any sort of end to it. Iran will learn from this to complete the nuclear program such that it becomes prohibitive to strike them. The are also allied with  Russia which could well help them to complete the weapon and delivery package. We better hope for regime change and if that happens , this will be a great success but if not, this could be one of those forever wars. 

Keep in mind that Russia and Iran have fought against each other a number of times.  I would be really surprised if Putin would help Iran get a nuclear bomb.  In addition, guys like Putin only respect strength.  Iran is now weak and Israel is now strong, so I would not expect Putin to help Iran get the bomb.

[sleepydragon]

Kim is probably pretty scared now. And Xi shall think twice before invading taiwan. Maybe Trump is not that predictable as they expected.

 

I think it’s best for US to keep the regime alive, but weak. 
 

oil going higher because this is not over. 

 

Buffett’s OXY “hedge” now looks pretty smart.

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

Kim is probably pretty scared now. And Xi shall think twice before invading taiwan. Maybe Trump is not that predictable as they expected.

 

I think it’s best for US to keep the regime alive, but weak. 
 

oil going higher because this is not over. 

 

Buffett’s OXY “hedge” now looks pretty smart.

 

I agree Kim should be concerned or start behaving.  Xi is another animal...same with Putin...they are nuclear armed, not simply working to that goal.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

Kim is probably pretty scared now. And Xi shall think twice before invading taiwan. Maybe Trump is not that predictable as they expected.

 

I think it’s best for US to keep the regime alive, but weak. 
 

oil going higher because this is not over. 

 

Buffett’s OXY “hedge” now looks pretty smart.

 

Regarding oil, I suspect the rest of the Middle East will start to produce more volume to keep prices relatively low.  They all have a pretty good relationship with Trump these days.  Cheers!

[Grenville]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Frankly, I think he ended up doing what nobody else really wanted to risk over the last 40 years.

 

Bibi gave him an opportunity and he took it.  Could have gone very wrong, but looks like (at least for now) that it was a gift horse!  I think Iran has no choice but to come to the diplomatic table now. 

 

The only concern is that the demise of the Iranian regime doesn't give rise to the next novel terrorist group by ISIS or someone else raising their importance in the region. 

 

Cheers!

lol, the only choice now is to take their enriched uranium and weaponize it. Otherwise they end up the way of Gaza or Ukraine.

[Luke]

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Oh what a web we weave - when we intervene in places 7,500 miles away from home.

 

Donald has now entered Bibi's parallel universe - where Iran is desperately seeking and running towards a bomb and is weeks away from getting one such that they can destroy Israel/the region/the world and so MUST be stopped at all costs.

 

That idea, that pretense, that public pronouncement once committed to (as Donald has done now) is a potential slippy slope of escalating commitments. Why? Because there are serious question whether you can truly put a nuclear program like Iran's fully to bed with bunker busters and aerial bombardment.....and so the question becomes what happens next when the Iranian's indicate or Israeli intelligence tells us that the program hasn't been sufficiently degraded to make the world truly 'safe'...US assets in the region (men/bases) are killed/destroyed.....well once you've committed to the conceit above....you need to continue....but how....further deepening commitments, ground troops, regime change....that's the pandoras box we've opened up here.

 

Genuinely hope this mission was beyond successful and the Iranian nuclear capability has been buried deep in the ruble.....if it hasn't....the ways things can go from bad to worse from here are endless.

Yeah...gotta say that i think this was the right judgement call from trump am i wrong here? 

 

Irans highest ranking government officers called for the death of the US, Israel, UK - by extension christians. They are far less reliable than Israel, sponsor terrorists worldwide...i am not dropping a tear that their nuclear capabilities have been damaged...

 

 

[Gamecock-YT]

5 hours ago, villainx said:

War is a time for peace.  

 

 

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.

[Blake Hampton]

Hopefully Trump knows what he’s doing.
 

I guess I can’t say he’s not bold.

[John Hjorth]

On 6/18/2025 at 5:48 PM, John Hjorth said:

 

Cont'd :

 

Wikipedia : GBU-57A/B MOP

 

YouTube : Ultimate Military Channel [May 17^th 2019] : B-2 Spirit Drops A GBU-57A/B MASSIVE ORDNANCE PENETRATOR! (Demonstration/Training Event, May 2019)

 

 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Imagine getting paid for creating and producing such monstrous thingies, not just to call them deadly M/Fs. Thinking about it makes me feel very productive.

 

According to several news outlets [I don't know the primary source, if any at all] a total of six fourteen GBU-57A/B MOBs were used for the first time in a non-testing situation. My thoughts go to the families of those poor Iranian souls, who lost their lives by getting such a M/F dropped in the head only because of being on their posts and doing their duty at the time of the attack.

Edited June 22, 2025 by John Hjorth
Edited number of MOBs according to Hegseth info

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Keep in mind that Russia and Iran have fought against each other a number of times.  I would be really surprised if Putin would help Iran get a nuclear bomb.  In addition, guys like Putin only respect strength.  Iran is now weak and Israel is now strong, so I would not expect Putin to help Iran get the bomb.

I believe any aid from Russia will be tech transfer not supply of weapons. Thats mostly what Iran did to help Russia out with  their drones. They helped them create a production lines for Shahed drones which are now destroying Ukraine. I expect the Russian to return that favor but of course deny everything . China will also supply weapons and components, as they have done before, but probably more so.

Edited June 22, 2025 by Spekulatius

[nwoodman]

There is a false precision with the approach in the table below but just interested in terms of how others are handicapping this.  The investor actions take them with a pinch of salt. 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

6 hours ago, Grenville said:

lol, the only choice now is to take their enriched uranium and weaponize it. Otherwise they end up the way of Gaza or Ukraine.

Gaza would be thriving right now had they followed Lee Quan Yew rather than Hamas.  

[Blake Hampton]

What's currently happening with Iran is J. Powell's fault.