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EBITDAg

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Everything posted by EBITDAg

  1. Picked up some TAP. 2.6% div yield and a 9% FCF yield. Has now paid down enough debt that they should be able to start buying back plenty of shares in coming years. I think they should be able to grow earnings MSD and get me to a low teens CAGR over the next decade.
  2. I do wonder how sustainable their growth is when their product quality is complete garbage. Great companies don't cut corners. I wonder if their sports cards are as bad as their apparel.
  3. This guy does a pretty good job of covering CPI. http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2023/10/except-for-fictitious-shelter-and.html
  4. I've also been adding small amounts over the past few days.
  5. WFC-L. ~6.6% yield that might as well be a perpetuity. Will hold for a long time or sell if rates plunge in future and these go back to ~$1300+ again.
  6. My favorite quarterly commentary on energy (and commodities more broadly) is out. http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries
  7. As a bagholder, unfortunately that company just did $0 in FCF, and that's with $3B in SBC not burdening that calc, in Q3. YTD FCF with SBC backed out is now implying a ~2% FCF yield on 2022 numbers, with no desire to pull back on expenses, so that number is probably even lower on '23 figures. Just a terrible intermediate term outlook.
  8. As a counterpoint, http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2022/06/a-comment-on-housing-inflation-and-fed.html "...1/3rd of the entire CPI reading is housing, and housing prices have been on a tear. That gets reflected, with a 12 to 18 month lag, in “owner’s equivalent rent” (OER), which is currently at a 30 year high...Well, house prices are still up (awaiting tomorrow’s updates) about 16% YoY. That is going to continue to feed into OER for the next 12 months at least. In other words, the only reason inflation declines in the next 12 months is if the non-housing 2/3’s of the number slows down drastically."
  9. In the first situation, you could sell just the second lot, reducing taxes in that situation given the much higher cost basis (or sell this lot and take capital loss if price declines while still holding first lot). But otherwise, comparing the first lot in situation one to the second situation, yes they are different since the capital gains are different.
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