Political Posts

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Ulti said:

“It was a big industry. Today there are only three professors in Germany who research in nuclear sciences. Wow.

Three. There are 150 professors in gender studies in Germany.”

From The Eisman Playbook: Kaput! Dissecting Europe’s Economic Struggles with author Wolfgang Münchau, Apr 21, 2025
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/kaput-dissecting-europes-economic-struggles-with/id1806975494?i=1000704322325&r=2513

 

The above quote is talking about the nuclear energy industry in Germany. It’s hilarious if it wasn’t so sad. Excellent podcast on the trials and tribulations of Germany and Europe

 

Ok, please fact check stuff like this before posting...or for that matter believing!  

 

Dresden University alone has over 20 nuclear science professors and another 30 doctoral students that teach there.

 

https://tu-dresden.de/mn/physik/iktp/das-institut/beschaeftigte#section-3

 

Cheers!

[Sweet]

What is going on, get a new PR team or something.  It’s not even the tariffs anymore it’s the general chaos:

 

I say this as a person who supports tariffs on bad actors but there has to be an actual approach that makes sense.

 

Edited April 23, 2025 by Sweet

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

Doesn’t matter who is sitting in the Oval Office, this is just wrong IMO

 

Indeed - my litmus test for whether somebody is even worth debating with re:Trump policies is to garner their view on whether the launch and continued 24hr trading of his meme coin with large outstanding reserve tokens to be sold into that 24hr trading market is (a) totally fine with them (b) problematic to outright wrong.....if they answer anything in the zipcode of answer (a) I know they have jumped the shark with Captain Chaos and we can't have a debate because they have TWS (Trump Worship Syndrome)

[Gregmal]

Well the litmus test should be a bit more expansive...say asking somebody if they own any sort of large company, but my favorites are stuff like Brookfield or BX or shit, anything that uses subsidiaries or LLCs for risk mitigation strategies...just basic, common sense business...and then hearing them moan really loudly about Trump entity bankruptcies...either youre not exactly familiar with how businesses are operated in a basic 101 sense, or ya got a little mush in the middle of la cabeza. 

[Ulti]

35 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Ok, please fact check stuff like this before posting...or for that matter believing!  

 

Dresden University alone has over 20 nuclear science professors and another 30 doctoral students that teach there.

 

https://tu-dresden.de/mn/physik/iktp/das-institut/beschaeftigte#section-3

 

Cheers!

My bad … I did research but was researching nuclear research reactors and saw the vast majority have been decommissioned in Germany 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_research_reactors
 

In his conversation with Eisman , Wolfgang mentioned there used to be an abundance of nuclear research facilities, and then he extrapolated and said there was only three people researching nuclear sciences. His main point being  there’s not enough energy being produced in Germany for any type of AI research . What peaked my interest was that of the 3 or 4

operational research facilities listed in Germany a couple of have listed 0 kW of production. And that is a question for a buddy of mine’s daughter who’s getting a post doctorate in nuclear fusion.

[Viking]

Well, it's time for people to get out of their ivory towers when it comes to Trump’s economic plan. Time to pivot and see what the impact his policies are actually having on the American economy (businesses and consumers). The rubber is just starting to hit the road (the impacts are just starting to happen). Watch the video below to hear from a small business owner. It is eye opening what he is having to deal with.

Liberation Day: ‘I am rapidly being liberated from my money.’ 

 

Of interest, his tariff costs are increasing from $2.3 million last year to a projected $100 million this year (based on current tariff levels). No he won’t be absorbing the tariff in his profit margin. Bottom line, his business will be shrinking dramatically. Many good paying jobs in the US, like at this company, will be vaporized. 
 

Will production of the products he sells be moving back to the US? No. American manufacturers aren’t interested. The volumes are too low. At the same time, labour costs are high. And labour is unavailable. The products being tariffed will not be available for Americans to buy. 
 

Nobody is benefitting. Trumps policies are simply raising prices for consumers. ‘It is a tax.’ Simple. 
 

Big businesses go to Washington and lobby for and get exemptions from tariffs. Small businesses are not so lucky. ‘Exasperating.’ 
 

Expect more stories like this in the coming weeks and months. 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2025 by Viking

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

What is going on, get a new PR team or something.  It’s not even the tariffs anymore it’s the general chaos:

 

I say this as a person who supports tariffs on bad actors but there has to be an actual approach that makes sense.

 

Trump is just thinking out loud. Not actionable.

[Parsad]

Did we ever get that wall built?  Cheers!

 

[Viking]

Here is a good video review of what has transpired over the past couple of weeks. Facts matter. We now have enough information we can start to evaluate how well Trump’s economic plan is being implemented / communicated. To state the obvious - it is a big, big deal (what Trump is trying to do).
 

It looks to me like we are seeing an epic level of incompetence - in terms of how this is being handled and communicated. (Now pretend you are a country on other side of the table from these guys…)

 

 

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

It looks to me like we are seeing an epic level of incompetence

 

The biggest impediment to Trump's MAGA agenda remains Trump.......when you read the accounts from various folks who've worked for him and with him......everybody from Paul Ryan to Gary Cohn and now even the recent reports re: Scott Bessent.........what emerges is something very much akin to Boris Johnson in the UK.......an unbelievably astute election winning politician completely unable to translate campaign rhetoric into cohesive political execution.

 

By the time Boris Johnson was toast - the majority of his cabinet in texts referred to him with a trolley/cart emoji - because dealing with him was like trying to handle a shopping cart rolling down a hill....it could go in any direction at any time.

 

Sound familiar?

 

 

[Luke]

5 hours ago, Viking said:

Well, it's time for people to get out of their ivory towers when it comes to Trump’s economic plan. Time to pivot and see what the impact his policies are actually having on the American economy (businesses and consumers). The rubber is just starting to hit the road (the impacts are just starting to happen). Watch the video below to hear from a small business owner. It is eye opening what he is having to deal with.

Liberation Day: ‘I am rapidly being liberated from my money.’ 

 

Of interest, his tariff costs are increasing from $2.3 million last year to a projected $100 million this year (based on current tariff levels). No he won’t be absorbing the tariff in his profit margin. Bottom line, his business will be shrinking dramatically. Many good paying jobs in the US, like at this company, will be vaporized. 
 

Will production of the products he sells be moving back to the US? No. American manufacturers aren’t interested. The volumes are too low. At the same time, labour costs are high. And labour is unavailable. The products being tariffed will not be available for Americans to buy. 
 

Nobody is benefitting. Trumps policies are simply raising prices for consumers. ‘It is a tax.’ Simple. 
 

Big businesses go to Washington and lobby for and get exemptions from tariffs. Small businesses are not so lucky. ‘Exasperating.’ 
 

Expect more stories like this in the coming weeks and months. 

 

 

Good comment on the timeline:

 

It takes ~30 days for containers to go from
China to LA.

4 5 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by
train.


55 to New York by sea.


Around that time (it's already started
to happen) trucking work is going to dry
up. Warehouses will start doing layoffs
because no labor is needed to unloac
containers and some products will be out
of stock, reducing the need for shipping
labor.


All this will start in the Los Angeles area.


After about 2 weeks, it'|l start hitting
Chicago and Houston


Let's say the White House, after 3 weeks,
changes its mind, on May 31st


*This isn't working out like we thought it
would. Tariffs back to 0."


Let's say China says "bygones be bygones
we'll go back to how things were*


Let's say every factory in China that got
screwed by their orders being cancelled
says the same thing "no problem, we'
make and ship"


The problem is, even under the most
favorable conditions of China and the
factories restarting economic ties as
though nothing happened, it will be at
least another 30 days before economic
activity is revived


And that's just in LA


In Chicago/Houston, you'll need to wait
another 45 days


New York, at that point, will st ill be getting
containers from before April 10th, they wil
then have 50 days (May 31 minus April 10)
of zero economic activity at the ports, in
trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing.


The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns.
Once you shut down, it takes a long time ta
get economic activity back to where it was,
if you ever can


And again, this assumes, that China and
'ts factories, which make things you can't
buy elsewhere, will start right back up
again as though nothing happened, which
is unlikely


It's almost like we're speeding towards a
prick wall but the driver of the car doesn't
see it yet.

Edited April 24, 2025 by Luke

[Gregmal]

So weird.... people posting podcasts that conform to almost exactly what they wanna believe...oh so shocking!

[changegonnacome]

18 minutes ago, Luke said:

Good comment on the timeline:

 

It takes ~30 days for containers to go from
China to LA.

4 5 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by
train.


55 to New York by sea.

 

This is all very interesting and will grab headlines.

 

The real political brick wall for Trump though will be when annualized MoM CPI prints start heading back into first 3% then 4% range.....then eventually 6%....haven't checked the data myself but apparently CPI fixing markets are pricing in that 6% annualized CPI print for the June release.

 

IMO its politically untenable for a politician who was elected to 'fix' inflation, spoke about fixing it ad-nauseam to then turn around and drive inflation up ~3x in his first six months in office.

[Sweet]

I know this is partly about deal making, but I think could also be what he believes.

[Sinbius]

China says no ongoing trade talks with the U.S., calls for canceling ‘unilateral’ tariffs

 

Xi just waiting ... 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

So weird.... people posting podcasts that conform to almost exactly what they wanna believe...oh so shocking!

MAGA guys think everything will be OK until they are personally affected.

 

I think the chance of supply chain interruptions is real, This is similar to COVID-19 in many respect with the virus being in the White House. Put yourself in the shoes of importers right now, what would you do?  I would not order anything from China, because you don’t know what it will cost when it arrives at the US harbor 30-50 days later. If you have to default on your contracts (to deliver something) , invoke force majeure. So, I think we see some empty shelves as well as supply chain snarls where input goods are missing. Housing will be likely one of the hard hit sectors due to tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber, less immigrant labor and likely persistent high interest rates as well as deteriorating consumer confidence. Could be quite a combo.

[Blake Hampton]

I almost asked for a MAGA hat for Christmas, but I thought $50 was too expensive.

I was going to call it my thinking cap.

I still might get one.

 

Edited April 24, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Spooky]

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

The real political brick wall for Trump though will be when annualized MoM CPI prints start heading back into first 3% then 4% range.....then eventually 6%....haven't checked the data myself but apparently CPI fixing markets are pricing in that 6% annualized CPI print for the June release.

 

Hey, at least gas will be cheap!

[Spooky]

Guys, America was and is already great. It is just that the distribution of that greatness is skewed.

[changegonnacome]

55 minutes ago, Spooky said:

It is just that the distribution of that greatness is skewed.

 

Indeed - the rust belt turned into a dystopian nightmare not because of China and trade but because of a failure of US politicians local, State and Federal to recognize those communities needed incremental support to help transition to new industries and activities (education/re-training/subsidies etc.).

 

Its quite convenient after 40 plus years of quite astounding economic progress for the United States with unequaled aggregate wealth and prosperity created in that time & by extension taxable pools of resources (much of it from globalization) to now turn around and blame trade, globalization & China in particular for what is fundamentally a failure of statecraft to stop whole communities slipping into poverty & fentanyl laced despair.

[cwericb]

8 hours ago, Gregmal said:

So weird.... people posting podcasts that conform to almost exactly what they wanna believe...oh so shocking!

 

But there are others who can't see the forest for the trees.

[changegonnacome]

Trump says we are in talks with China

 

China says what talks? there are no talks occuring

 

 

What a shit show - but make no mistake Trump is trying to figure out an off ramp here.......small and medium sized businesses with inputs from China are in the process of going to wall........sticker shock at Target, Walmart & DG are a few weeks away........and that ~June annualized MoM 6% CPI print is incoming.

 

I hope some genius in the admin is also deducting from the tariff 'windfall' the Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) that are going to flow through to seniors on foot of the increased inflation....an incremental 400bps of inflation captured by COLA would cost an additional $56bn annually in social security payments or half a trillion over ten years!

[Viking]

The thread from Bob does a nice job of explaining what is happening under the hood. Trump’s economic plan is completely snarling supply chains. How well did that go during Covid? So why are financial markets going higher? Because they KNOW a snarled/slowing economy will force Trump to reverse course. Yes, the emperor has no clothes. 
 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2025 by Viking

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Indeed - the rust belt turned into a dystopian nightmare not because of China and trade but because of a failure of US politicians local, State and Federal to recognize those communities needed incremental support to help transition to new industries and activities (education/re-training/subsidies etc.).

 

Its quite convenient after 40 plus years of quite astounding economic progress for the United States with unequaled aggregate wealth and prosperity created in that time & by extension taxable pools of resources (much of it from globalization) to now turn around and blame trade, globalization & China in particular for what is fundamentally a failure of statecraft to stop whole communities slipping into poverty & fentanyl laced despair.

 

That's a pretty great summary of gov failure (both parties).  So now the issue is how to fix it.

 

And certainly why Trump was elected. He's taken on a very difficult issue.

[backtothebeach]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I would not order anything from China, because you don’t know what it will cost when it arrives at the US harbor 30-50 days later.

 

The tariff rate for orders from China is determined by the shipping date, specifically when goods are loaded onto the vessel for transport to the U.S., not the arrival date. 

 

More info from perplexity:
 

Here's the breakdown:

General Rule: Tariffs apply based on the loading date of goods onto the final mode of transport before entering the U.S. Goods already in transit before the tariff's effective date are typically exempt from the new rate, provided they arrive within specified deadlines

.

Example: For the April 9, 2025, reciprocal tariffs, goods loaded before 12:01 a.m. EDT on the effective date avoid the new rate if entered by May 27, 2025

.

Similarly, the February 2025 10% tariff exempted goods in transit before February 1 if they arrived by March 7

.

Arrival Date's Role: While the actual duty payment occurs upon entry into the U.S., the applicable tariff rate is locked in at the shipping/loading date
.
Delays in customs processing do not alter the rate.
 

Edited April 24, 2025 by backtothebeach